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Hoosier

January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

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Still has a nice look to it but there has been a weakening trend overall. Could be rain for those south of the WI/IL border but could be looking at a decent snow north of the border.

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GFS has had the low running from Kansas City to just north of Chicago for the past couple runs.  ECMWF has a similar idea.  Both bring a big hit to southern Wisconsin.  Unfortunately looks like rain for areas further south.

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2 hours ago, madwx said:

GFS has had the low running from Kansas City to just north of Chicago for the past couple runs.  ECMWF has a similar idea.  Both bring a big hit to southern Wisconsin.  Unfortunately looks like rain for areas further south.

What side of town are you on?

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54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Watch the trailing energy.

12z Euro goes to town with this (pressure wise).  Nice hit especially eastern sub.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro goes to town with this (pressure wise).  Nice hit especially eastern sub.

And says let's do it again 3 days later

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11 minutes ago, outflow said:

And says let's do it again 3 days later

lol... nice phase with the polar vortex. 

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

12z Euro goes to town with this (pressure wise).  Nice hit especially eastern sub.

It did that a few days ago further west out this way.  Kind of get the feeling it's sort of kicking the can down the road so to speak.  Hopefully today's Euro is on to something and blows up something nice for the east sub.  

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What side of town are you on?

Live near downtown but work on the SW side.  

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Quite a change in airmass from Sun/Mon into Tue if you're on the warm side.  Also spells inversion hell with the WAA over an expansive snow field.

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Last few runs are too close, thermally, IMBY - would like to see if shift SE a bit. Either way, starting to look likely that someone in the immediate region is going to see more snow...

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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Quite a change in airmass from Sun/Mon into Tue if you're on the warm side.  Also spells inversion hell with the WAA over an expansive snow field.

The point of all this snow is to cover up all of the mud! If I can squeeze 5 or 6 out this weekend or even more and end up with a potential foot snow pack (lost about 5 inches this week)  it really sucks it could all be for not and end up with bare ground to maybe a dirty 2 or 3 inches  moving into an epic cold snap.  Clippers and the back side of next weeks storm my only saving grace.

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Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard. 

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31 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard. 

Please don't trend south. I want the max snowfall danig ti all.

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Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard. 
I've been thinking the same thing and suspect there will be at least some correction colder.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

I've been thinking the same thing and suspect there will be at least some correction colder.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah I would also agree which is good because right now it brings cold rain here.

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I've been thinking the same thing and suspect there will be at least some correction colder.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Wonder about freezing rain possibility as well.  Not your classic ice setup but there just might not be enough time to warm to stop it from happening entirely, even with waa.

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32 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

LOT highlights uncertainty with the system and its track in afternoon AFD, also shares concerns warm air may not make it as far north as some models think. 

WAA looks pretty robust, but it will be a cold start on Tuesday and the question is how fast the warming is realized at the surface.  I gotta think there's a good chance for at least some front end snow/ice for a good chunk of LOT, and it wouldn't take much of a southeast trend to put more of the area in line for significant snow.

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This one's looking like a mix-bag for east IA/northern IL.  Definitely doesn't look to be an all snow event.  If we get some rain/freezing rain it will really act to turn the existing snow pack into a glacier, as it is pretty deep and shouldn't melt much during the event.  Our snow pack will start layering up like lasagna, as there's already a thin layer of icy crust about 5" below the surface lol.  

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GFS and NAM 2m from 60-84 hrs.  Without a high to the north, you'd normally lean more on the warmer solutions but it will be interesting to watch.  The NAM struggles sometimes with WAA over snowpack.

Also something to keep in mind... coming out of the deep cold, it could be one of those scenarios that roads/sidewalks are icing even when 2m is a little above freezing.

gfs_T2m_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.6cd1064681e3545fe9f4d37c911ca6c5.gif

namconus_T2m_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.0f2483cfb0f2a7932375e448801811a7.gif

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GFS and NAM 2m from 60-84 hrs.  Without a high to the north, you'd normally lean more on the warmer solutions but it will be interesting to watch.  The NAM struggles sometimes with WAA over snowpack.

Also something to keep in mind... coming out of the deep cold, it could be one of those scenarios that roads/sidewalks are icing even when 2m is a little above freezing.

gfs_T2m_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.6cd1064681e3545fe9f4d37c911ca6c5.gif

namconus_T2m_ncus_fh60-84.thumb.gif.0f2483cfb0f2a7932375e448801811a7.gif

IND already mentioned this. They sounded concerned about some substantial icing for awhile

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