Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,686
    Total Members
    11,691
    Most Online
    dorkchop
    Newest Member
    dorkchop
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
21 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Want that thing to develop a bit earlier and farther south to get a nice cold conveyorbelt going for SNE. 

It looks to me like the EURO is more proficiently phasing the PV in with that southern SW off of the east coast, however the issue I see is that there is still nothing to prevent a more tucked track should it succeed in doing so. Maybe a decent front end job-taint-arctic blast?

This current stretch would be Feb '15 if we had blocking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Wouldnt the low want to tend to get tugged west into the pv?

... on a bald planetary interface with free-atmosphere, sure... 

But the cordillera west, along with having CAD'ed dense air over the coastal plain (...which is pretty pronounced with that high situated smartly up N) both offer resistance to a low summarily wrapping in

I mean, it's the basic secondary model ... So as that exit region of the jet and curvature nose over and difluence approaches the lower viscosity of the near shore waters, the new low is conserved ...  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Wouldnt the low want to tend to get tugged west into the pv?

 

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... on a bald planetary interface with free-atmosphere, sure... 

But the cordillera west, along with having CAD'ed dense air over the coastal plain (...which is pretty pronounced with that high situated smartly up N) both offer resistance to a low summarily wrapping in

I mean, it's the basic secondary model ... So as that exit region of the jet and curvature nose over and difluence approaches the lower viscosity of the near shore waters, the new low is conserved ...  

 

TIPPY TRANSLATION:  "Not necessarily...………………."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... on a bald planetary interface with free-atmosphere, sure... 

But the cordillera west, along with having CAD'ed dense air over the coastal plain (...which is pretty pronounced with that high situated smartly up N) both offer resistance to a low summarily wrapping in

I mean, it's the basic secondary model ... So as that exit region of the jet and curvature nose over and difluence approaches the lower viscosity of the near shore waters, the new low is conserved ...  

 

Yea, that is sufficient resistance to a track over Albany, but I don't see how this tracks east of the CC cancel given a proficient phase....unless the whole axis shifts east, which is this range is unlikely.

I'll tell you.....someone on the western edge is going to get a hellacious deformation with the +pp abutting explosive PV phasing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at all the OP guidance, the EURO is the closest to something good for more people.  The GGEM tracks it up over VT, and the GFS wasn't all that inspiring.  

It seems the models do want to pull the low back west towards the upper level trough....gotta keep that whole shebang to the east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ray that's essentially true. 

The Euro is attempting more phase ... it also seems to have a subtly more conserved s/w in the southern stream ...helping some of the pallid tendency to subsume. 

I mean I'm not commenting on likeliness of all that happening but that does appear to be what it's going for -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is sufficient resistance to a track over Albany, but I don't see how this tracks east of the CC cancel given a proficient phase....unless the whole axis shifts east, which is this range is unlikely.

I'll tell you.....someone on the western edge is going to get a hellacious deformation with the +pp abutting explosive PV phasing.

Yea. Its got a more subdued feb 2011 late jan 66 march 1888 look. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has max there around -15F. Def could be some all time records with this one.

That's insane cold for NYS into central/NNE the day after that Miller B, too... 

Seems to somehow manage to miss SNE (the flow is parallel under that vortex) but what a cryo hell -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Hey we did that. My son in law asked if we could set the picnic table on fire if he promised to build a new one. Why not, month later we had a beautiful 10 footer that's still there.

I did the same with a Hexagon one we had, Never used it other then to park my sled on top of one winter........lol, Made for a great bon fire though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's all i have seen here since Nov, They all have been slop storms....................:lol:

Better than our all rain storms.

 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not that intrigued for this area.

Low ceiling in this, as is presently constituted.

Its either a hug, or very little imo.

Unlikely we get just enough of a PV phase to track this favorably for sne.

West and North preferred.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...