SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: models underestimate dense low level cold so the ice threat is significant imo Even the front end snow dump would end up more than the 18Z GFS shows verbatim if you got that exact track. We see this with any system where we go snow to rain that it’s not usually til 84-96 that we start seeing the magnitude of the snow portion. The November storm was the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even the front end snow dump would end up more than the 18Z GFS shows verbatim if you got that exact track. We see this with any system where we go snow to rain that it’s not usually til 84-96 that we start seeing the magnitude of the snow portion. The November storm was the same thing Exactly, an eternity still to go. Lets see if this winters south trend is a factor in this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, TriPol said: Are there any analogues for this storm? 1/21/94 and several others that Jan/Feb had this anomalous cold-if this cold is real as modeled, one of those could be an analog.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 1/21/94 and several others that Jan/Feb had this anomalous cold-if this cold is real as modeled, one of those could be an analog.... My hunch is it’ll end up more wintry here than 1/18/94 because the high is in a much better position. That time the high was south of us sliding offshore with south winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch is it’ll end up more wintry here than 1/18/94 because the high is in a much better position. That time the high was south of sliding offshore with south winds makes sense-we briefly spiked to 50 here during that event before temps crashed...streams of water running down the edges of the road literally flash froze--you could make out the ripples in the water literally frozen on the spot-never seen it before and haven't see it since.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even the front end snow dump would end up more than the 18Z GFS shows verbatim if you got that exact track. We see this with any system where we go snow to rain that it’s not usually til 84-96 that we start seeing the magnitude of the snow portion. The November storm was the same thing I agree the surface reflection of the GFS and its cousin Para doesn't look right. It should show more front end snow with that low track. My guess is both models are struggling with the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I would toss the GFS thermal profiles. The Euro being that warm holds more water, but honestly the NAM seems to do best with low level cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I would toss the GFS thermal profiles. The Euro being that warm holds more water, but honestly the NAM seems to do best with low level cold air.Nam has always been good with this. Stands to reason being a regional model. But the cold air is underdone. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense-we briefly spiked to 50 here during that event before temps crashed...streams of water running down the edges of the road literally flash froze--you could make out the ripples in the water literally frozen on the spot-never seen it before and haven't see it since.... We had a flash freeze storm here in '03 (?) that was terrifying to drive home after. My regular 24 mile ride was 46 due to blocked roads and hills too steep to get up (or down) in my 4Runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS taken literally would be a wild storm. Heavy rain, sleet, freezing rain, then high ratio snow with a flash freeze thrown in.I’ve always wanted to see the 1888 storm, and this one may get cold.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, North and West said: I’ve always wanted to see the 1888 storm, and this one may get cold. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk In March 1888 the average temperature in NYC was 29.9 degrees. For the year it was 49.4. I'd like to see a stretch of sustained cold like that once in my lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I would toss the GFS thermal profiles. The Euro being that warm holds more water, but honestly the NAM seems to do best with low level cold air. Wasnt the Euro much colder than the GFS at the surface? Truthfully I find all the models usually overestimate surface warmth in these setups especially away from maybe the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00Z NAM fairly flat with the Friday system. Still think this could be mostly snow outside of LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 ICON less amped in the southern plains early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 ICON is a solid dump to heavy freezing rain in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Way below freezing this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: models underestimate dense low level cold so the ice threat is significant imo Yea. This looks to be the main threat as I see it now for the immediate nw burbs to western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Wow around hr 135 its starts to get hairy / no loger snow in my part of the Hudson valley,,and other locations East of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 We're still more than 5 days out. It's an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Way below freezing this frame. This is alot of ice for the area. Dangerous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yea. This looks to be the main threat as I see it now for the immediate nw burbs to western LI. Rjay or someone else can you guys explain why it would possibly be frozen rain or precipitation if the surface shows very cold ? Is it that the midlevels are warm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'll weenie for a second. If i had to make a forecast for NYC right now and wasn't allowed to change it, I'd go with them starting as a period of snow with a quick change to rain for a few hours then a change to freezing rain for several more hours then to sleet briefly before turning to snow. 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 RIP LHV, most of CT, Albany. and 90% of Mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Rjay or someone else can you gets explain why it would possibly be frozen rain or precipitation if the surface shows very cold ? Is it that the midlevels are warm ? Yes. You basically get the gist of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: Yes. You basically get the gist of it. what would cause the midlevels to remain warm or not be cooled with this colder air already in place and more rushing in ? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'll weenie for a second. If i had to make a forecast for NYC right now and wasn't allowed to change it, I'd go with them starting as a period of snow with a quick change to rain for a few hours then a change to freezing rain for several more hours then to sleet briefly before turning to snow. 1-3". I wouldn't even venture a guess right now. But not bad... reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: what would cause the midlevels to remain warm or not be cooled with this colder air already in place and more rushing in ? Thanks in advance 850mb low is way too far NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS still mostly rain for Friday but I don't really trust GFS thermal profiles with either storm but we'll see what the track is for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: GFS still mostly rain for Friday but I don't really trust GFS thermal profiles with either storm but we'll see what the track is for storm 2 Might be worth the sacrifice though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 @Brasiluvsnow With soundings you can see it even better but let's start with this. From the 18z gfs. (Using NYC as a reference point). The first temp map shows a cold surface. The second one shows a warm layer in the mid levels. Sleet or freezing rain with fall depending on how "thick" the layer of cold air is below the warm layer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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