tdp146 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 hours ago, wdrag said: So for the still working mets on this board... there continues to be need for improved modeling of boundary layers (BL) temps, especially the lowest portion of the BL... ALL model failure on this CAD drainage that is a constant, when, a reservoir of colder air exists near I90 (MA-NYS), available for reinforcement. We're lucky here in northern Sussex County that we had mostly sleet (11P-430A). We'll know more at sunrise, and then if it doesn't warm above 32, a second chance for power outages with 35-45 Mph gusts knocking down ice covered branches tonight. Unknowns to prepare for. One known I think is the risk not only elevated risk for heart attacks removing our solid 4.5" of snow sleet (it was broomable last evening prior to sleet (24f at that time). but also shoulder injuries since the weight of snow -sleet-freezing rain can take a toll. Just reading the discussion out of the NWS in Maine and they would agree. No models really reliable. Update...For starters the only model performing even close to observed 2 m temps is the HRRR...so any adjustments were just about solely HRRR based. Largest pressure falls are occurring over the elbow of the Cape. With low pressure trying to squeeze in that direction now...cold temps will lock in place. I do not expect anyone to rise above freezing today...which at least eliminates one ptype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 46 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Back up to 39 now. And here comes the heavy backside rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 31 and dropping with heavy rain. It's getting ugly in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, gravitylover said: 31 and dropping with heavy rain. It's getting ugly in a hurry. This is it though. Disaster averted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 New City here---> it is absolutely pouring and the temerature has dropped currently 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: This is it though. Disaster averted. Far from it. I have at least .3" of ice coating everything. Trees are flopping over, branches are falling, power/phone lines are sagging and the temp is dropping. There is nothing good about what's going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Models did terrible with surface temps for the interior as expected. The coast didn't even torch quite as much as modeled although youi can see the sharp coastal front with mid to upper 40s Queens/Brooklyn/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Correct 2mi from the Appalachians Trail. Beautiful here... but when power goes out, and trees need to be cleared.... its a problem. Last March it didn't get below 31F in those multi day outages, so homes could maintain enough heat to prevent pipes bursting. Tonight, if power is out and there is no safe heating of the home, especially windward walls...there will be major consequences. I'm pretty sure it will get down to -1F at our home in Wantage at sunrise Monday, with wind chill 20-30below. NYC in a way lucky no snow cover. btw, I think 1/21 will be coldest mean temperature here in nw Nj and ne PA since Feb 13, 2016 Later, Walt All that. And the marauding deer, plus the bears. My son tells me rutgers is studying bobcats up there. Had no idea we had bobcats in NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 32 minutes ago, tdp146 said: Just reading the discussion out of the NWS in Maine and they would agree. No models really reliable. Update...For starters the only model performing even close to observed 2 m temps is the HRRR...so any adjustments were just about solely HRRR based. Largest pressure falls are occurring over the elbow of the Cape. With low pressure trying to squeeze in that direction now...cold temps will lock in place. I do not expect anyone to rise above freezing today...which at least eliminates one ptype. Won't need to worry about hear attacks or shoulder issues down here. I'd worry more about driving into standing water... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Hope, NJ Currently 32, about .2” glaze or more on all surfaces with trees bending under weight of ice. This neighborhood has very large oak and ash trees that are quite top heavy. Not liking the prospect of 45mph wind gusts this evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 JFK 50 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: JFK 50 degrees now. 49 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, psv88 said: 49 here 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: JFK 50 degrees now. wow still only 38 in the North Bronx, very sharp front right at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 39 at LGA and Central Park. 49 at JFK and the Helliport in Lower Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: wow still only 38 in the North Bronx, very sharp front right at the coast Well forecasted by all models. Now that the rain stopped it’s a nice day. Too bad I’m stuck inside with a 1 year and a 5 year old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, dWave said: 39 at LGA and Central Park. 49 at JFK and the Helliport in Lower Manhattan. The park is at 42 as of 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Byrdhousebv said: Temp now 48 here in eastern Monmouth Co. Now up to 52 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just hit 32° here 4.5" of snow/sleet Decent ice accretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 People were right who said the airmass just wasn't cold enough. The temp barely changed from the start of the storm for Northern NYC/Westchester/Northern NJ if the airmass had been colder this would've been a snow to ice storm for a wide part of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Temp sliding back down, we might be in deep doo doo shortly with this final rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: This is it though. Disaster averted. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Temp sliding back down, we might be in deep doo doo shortly with this final rain. I know what you mean. It’s down to 48 here, I’m getting worried as well. #winterstormHarper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 50° with 1.55” of rain. It’s very difficult getting under 10° without snow cover, but we’ll see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4.5 inches of iceberg here. 28.9 with precip just ended. Trees ice covered, snowblower broke and I'm not shoveling this. Anyone know any plow guys in Highland Mills/Central Valley area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, psv88 said: I know what you mean. It’s down to 48 here, I’m getting worried as well. #winterstormHarper Almost as low as my 33. Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 4.5 inches of iceberg here. 28.9 with precip just ended. Trees ice covered, snowblower broke and I'm not shoveling this. Anyone know any plow guys in Highland Mills/Central Valley area? You should post in the canadian forum. Thats where those temps were found, you must be lying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, BxEngine said: Almost as low as my 33. Getting there. Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Lol ? It's true. Could've easily had major widespread issues. Haven't really seen anyone here report more than .3" of accretion. With the amount of precip by in large most people got lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Almost as low as my 33. Getting there. Yea this is not an ice threat for the City/LI. Places near the tappan zee which have been raining might have real concerns about ending as ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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