psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The 500 look between 18z snd 0z are frightening on icon Your not exaggerating. The difference for relatively short leads from 18z to 0z were alarming. Icon looks like hot steaming poo at h5 after a sweet 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What continues to amaze (frustrate) me about our region is how even the things we need (like high pressure) can't be too much or too little. Not enough for the elements to just be there...they gotta be just right! Here we have this monster high in an ideal spot...but now it might shred off some of the potential (perhaps I'm not understanding that properly). Wow you need to look at the 500 panels. For this storm the flow is flat, and you've been hearing some of us talk about "better ridging/bending/buckling" That is higher heights out in front of MSLP that can help to let the storm gain latitude. In this setup, we need that. In the right pattern, we'd take a 1036hp most of the time and that would be great, but when the flow is flat, the HP acts as a barrier to the north, and also helps to "tear" the storm apart. If you had better ridging out west and a deeper trough in the east, the buckling of the flow would force them into each other and the HP acts as an aid in supplying cold air, and less of a shield. I hope this helps. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Icon is back to the idea of holding energy back and developing a second wave but no way in this flow that has a shot. We need one consolidated ejection of energy to overcome the flow. The NS isn't neatly as suppressive this time as December but in December the system came out really amplified and held together to the coast. It got forced due east but it was well organized. This time it's ejecting in pieces and is a weak strung out mess. (If the icon and nam are right) That won't cut it. Lets see what the big boys have to say before getting worried. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your not exaggerating. The difference for relatively short leads from 18z to 0z were alarming. Icon looks like hot steaming poo at h5 after a sweet 18z run. and had similarities of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Icon is back to the idea of holding energy back and developing a second wave but no way in this flow that has a shot. We need one consolidated ejection of energy to overcome the flow. The NS isn't neatly as suppressive this time as December but in December the system came out really amplified and held together to the coast. It got forced due east but it was well organized. This time it's ejecting in pieces and is a weak strung out mess. (If the icon and nam are right) That won't cut it. Lets see what the big boys have to say before getting worried. Staying strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Well i guess it could all go down the drain but i get this feeling that having the JV models against might actually be a winning formula lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS out to 36 is north....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Hmm I might have to take back my "not as suppressive" comment. On the icon and nam another lobe of the 50/50 rotates down into New England exactly as the storm is reaching out longitude making it impossible for it to amplify and gain latitude. Same as December. Could be bad luck. Or maybe the 50/50s are prone to set up too far south this year. Hopefully it's wrong. If not hopefully it's just bad luck twice in a row. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Hi is exaggerating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: GFS out to 36 is north....... Doesn't really matter. Early on everything looks good. The problems start around hour 60 as the flow starts to get compressed as the western trough presses east with the PAC jet crashing in bit the North Atlantic vortex has the flow blocked up so the trough starts to get squeezed and stretched out which causes it to de amplify. From then on it goes wrong (on the guidance that it shearing it apart). Yea north and amped is good early but might not matter if it goes the same way down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: GFS out to 36 is north....... Are you sure. Looks like the confluence is coming down more in the NE at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Doesn't really matter. Early on everything looks good. The problems start around hour 60 as the flow starts to get compressed as the western trough presses east with the PAC jet crashing in bit the North Atlantic vortex has the flow blocked up so the trough starts to get squeezed and stretched out which causes it to de amplify. From then on it goes wrong (on the guidance that it shearing it apart). Yea north and amped is good early but might not matter if it goes the same way down the line. see smiley face..... it was a joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS looks a lil better to me h5 wise comparing 00z at 48 to 18z at 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: GFS looks a lil better to me h5 wise comparing 00z at 48 to 18z at 54 Yea but didn't the 18z run look like crap? The gefs was great but I thought the op was a bad run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Are you sure. Looks like the confluence is coming down more in the NE at 48 in truth, out to 54 surface is s l i g h t l y north, but I'm not a fan of 500's. jmo's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hmm I might have to take back my "not as suppressive" comment. On the icon and nam another lobe of the 50/50 rotates down into New England exactly as the storm is reaching out longitude making it impossible for it to amplify and gain latitude. Same as December. Could be bad luck. Or maybe the 50/50s are prone to set up too far south this year. Hopefully it's wrong. If not hopefully it's just bad luck twice in a row. Thats what I saw, and Ji too I think. That lobe was behind the southern wave on previous runs, and now it comes down right on top. The hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 At 54 GFS is north and the vort looks more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 More interaction on h5 at 00z 54... see around Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 every bit helps..i think the 00z gfs does look better with energy...but keep in mind 18z was an awful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: in truth, out to 54 surface is s l i g h t l y north, but I'm not a fan of 500's. jmo's Agree on both points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Actually at 54 the trough is significantly more amplified in the plains. But again the real issue will be how badly it gets compressed as it approaches the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Still looks to me more interaction at h5 00z 66 than 18z 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 66 more amplified then 18z vort still looks more organized and sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Actually at 54 the trough is significantly more amplified in the plains. But again the real issue will be how badly it gets compressed as it approaches the east coast I was looking further east at what i didnt like, but agree w/ your plains assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Come on, please let this start a N trend between now and 00z tomorrow night. H5 and 500 are slightly better. Or maybe my eyes just want them to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Beachin said: 66 more amplified then 18z vort still looks more organized and sharper Agree. Heights a tad higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 aand there's the shear lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Agree. Heights a tad higher. So far, ol man GFS is the one to root for IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thats what I saw, and Ji too I think. That lobe was behind the southern wave on previous runs, and now it comes down right on top. The hammer. Yep. If the other guidance moves to that solution tonight we might be in trouble again. When it was diving that energy in behind in previous runs I was hopeful that given the typical trend towards a more amplified system in the end game we would be ok. But if that's coming down in front like last time then we have the same exact problem as December only with an even weaker system this time. That wouldn't work. That would leave us with only the weak NS wave that runs out ahead. Hopefully the jv models injected some bad mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 problem is we are comparing this to 18z and that was an awful run. So slightly better isn't necessarily good enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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