Ringing in a new year--can we ring in a new winter? 12/31-1/1 Glop and Wind Obs

[moneypitmike]

It's the only weather we've got.

[DomNH]

NAM is pretty thumpy N of Route 2 but I don't see any other guidance that cold. 

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, DomNH said:

NAM is pretty thumpy N of Route 2 but I don't see any other guidance that cold. 

We need a northern Mass person to start channeling Messenger and find all the obscure reasons why this will actually hammer that area and subsequently point to the live radar as to how that's actually bearing out.

[dendrite]

GYX is about 3-4" here. Sounds reasonable. Before seeing their maps I was thinking 3-5".

[DomNH]

17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We need a northern Mass person to start channeling Messenger and find all the obscure reasons why this will actually hammer that area and subsequently point to the live radar as to how that's actually bearing out.

Even the warm GFS is still pretty cold at 925 for a few hours so probably a sleety mess at minimum. 

[mahk_webstah]

Do we think this is an early starter?  The good thumps come in quicker than forecast and go straight to thumping and then last longer than forecast and fade to light rain or drizzle.  Would be nice to start the pack and 2 sloppy inches wouldn’t surprise me nor would 6 heavy inches

[dryslot]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GYX is about 3-4" here. Sounds reasonable. Before seeing their maps I was thinking 3-5".

Same, Guidance looks to be coming in a few tics colder as we close in.

[mahk_webstah]

Jeff hopefully I’ll be saying congrats to you later because you flag this like a week ago.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Jeff hopefully I’ll be saying congrats to you later because you flag this like a week ago.

Thanks Mark, looks good for high end advisory for a few of us and warning snow for NNH, NW and Northern Maine.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Enjoy the glop. It’s the only flop we got

I might manage a little bit of frozen before it flips back but expecting zero

[ice1972]

Is this gonna soak NYE in Times Square?  Lol....I’d take a 25/23 heavy blizzy conditions over that clammy wet slop any day....Jesus that’s gonna suck

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

GYX is about 3-4" here. Sounds reasonable. Before seeing their maps I was thinking 3-5".

4-6" for my area, with 10% chance at the 8-12 bracket.  (Also 10% for <1"  )  

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

Is this gonna soak NYE in Times Square?  Lol....I’d take a 25/23 heavy blizzy conditions over that clammy wet slop any day....Jesus that’s gonna suck

It will soak NYC.  Last year it was 3F

[Baroclinic Zone]

Can't wait for my 1/2"-3/4" to ring in 2019.

[wxeyeNH]

34/24F  Thickening cirrus.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Clouds moving in here in southern Vermont. I like the way the precip looks on radar In Pa. I think I thump nicely on the east side of the greens. Expecting 3”

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

4-6" for my area, with 10% chance at the 8-12 bracket.  (Also 10% for <1"  )  

Actually a perfect slot to be in, right in the middle of the modeled distribution.

Now individual storms can be different, but if you’re always on one end or the other of the distribution, you have a forecast bias (GYX is a high bias in the past he said to no one’s surprise).

[OceanStWx]

I like the way model guidance has been modeling strong lift washing out the leading edge of the warm air. Both forecast soundings and modeled ptypes show a mix flashing back to heavy snow for most areas in the SW GYX CWA. At least for an hour or two.

[OceanStWx]

Also for the love of god why are we still rolling with 0” for PWM. When my kid wakes up at 2 AM I’ll be running outside to measure my 2-3”.

My forecast of a forecast is Ekster will come in this evening and bumpity bump totals up near the coast.

[DomNH]

Looks like the HRRR likes an extended period of sleet for S NH tonight. Interested to see if the colder guidance wins out. 

[PWMan]

59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Also for the love of god why are we still rolling with 0” for PWM. When my kid wakes up at 2 AM I’ll be running outside to measure my 2-3”.

My forecast of a forecast is Ekster will come in this evening and bumpity bump totals up near the coast.

Was wondering that myself. I'll be out there enjoying the glop while we have it!

[dryslot]

HRRR fits my thoughts for here to be in the 3-5" range.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, PWMan said:

Was wondering that myself. I'll be out there enjoying the glop while we have it!

I mean I take the easy over on 0”

We have some room to cool this evening, and yes dews have come up, but it’s pretty chilly aloft to start. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Also for the love of god why are we still rolling with 0” for PWM. When my kid wakes up at 2 AM I’ll be running outside to measure my 2-3”.

My forecast of a forecast is Ekster will come in this evening and bumpity bump totals up near the coast.

Looks like a fairly good thump initially there until the warmer air moves in aloft.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Looks like a fairly good thump initially there until the warmer air moves in aloft.

You can pretty easily pull 2-3” with just two hours of WAA thump. So it’s not hard to do a widespread advisory 3-5”

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You can pretty easily pull 2-3” with just two hours of WAA thump. So it’s not hard to do a widespread advisory 3-5”

Need to make hay between 09-12z or sooner.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You can pretty easily pull 2-3” with just two hours of WAA thump. So it’s not hard to do a widespread advisory 3-5”

How warm up there tomorrow? 40’s?

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Need to make hay between 09-12z or sooner.

For sure. 12z will be too late for much of the area.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How warm up there tomorrow? 40’s?

Probably when the cold front comes through much of the area sees a spike into the 40s. Mountains may never get there though.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Probably when the cold front comes through much of the area sees a spike into the 40s. Mountains may never get there though.

Will anyone outside Mtns keep any of the pack?