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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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Vigorous southern slider pounds NC then moves off the coast before northern energy phases with it, trough turns negative, tracks north to the benchmark.

Is that even possible? Lol (because something that pounds Raleigh and pounds north...would have to pound us too, right? Whereas just Raleigh and a whiff here...would be a whiff north as well!)


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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, every miller B or hybrid that digs deep enough can produce nightmare results. Maestro is still in innocence stage of the learning curve. We were all there once.

I'm not naive to the fact that we can miss easily...I remember that storm...just didn't remember the south making out that well that time. I wanna see more maps from past misses that look exactly like that...to see how often that specifically happens.

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention 

That ain't where I'm at...I'm not naive to the fact that we will miss...I was just talking about the exact dec 2010 situation. I didn't know that in particular had happened that many times.

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention 

I wish we could pin this as a headline on the forum.  Would help to keep expectations in check for a few posters.  

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, every miller B or hybrid that digs deep enough can produce nightmare results. Maestro is still in innocence stage of the learning curve. We were all there once.

The term Miller B is not permitted to be spoken at our dinner table. 

It stresses me out so much I lose my appetite. :-)  Seriously I hope we get a well modeled MECS without any surprises. Like PD II 

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42 minutes ago, frd said:

I really have to read Judah's blog tomorrow, I really don't see this SSWE producing outcomes like 2005-06, but he did say make no assumptions. 

Also,  it appears he is just using the GFS model ?  

 

He is one of the worst talking heads. He throws out everything and the kitchen sink each winter then spins like crazy later. I don't care what he says. 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

The term Miller B is not permitted to be spoken at our dinner table. 

It stresses me out so much I lose my appetite. :-)  Seriously I hope we get a well modeled MECS without any surprises. Like PD II 

I'm tellin ya.  I know its a way for us to snow, but heartbreak far outweighs hits for all of us in the jip zone.  Just have to hope for the earlier transfers, or really late transfer to jip Boston.  I typically don't root against anyone not getting snow, but friggit.  Its our turn.

 

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55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Talking about from looking over the individual members separately? Looking at the means I thought we saw a good improvement at 500 and especially the mslp.

12z.thumb.gif.dcf569ba06bceac5c9dc7ee69a1a157c.gif

 

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This is a case where the mean is misleading. As we get closer a mean pressure can look better because of a convergence on a general track and amplitude. So by losing members that had a really flat solution it will make the new consensus better. But if that consensus is no good for us and if lost a minority cluster that was NW and had a good solution (but wasn't impacting the mean slp plots much because they were removed from the majority region of low pressure and outnumbered) it's actually a bad run. EPS moved towards a more amped overall solution but late developing for us and lost some members from the tucked in camp that blasted us. Now if future runs continue to trend more amplified then it could become better again but this run itself was a slight step back from 0z imo. 

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27 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We will get snow at some point I have no doubt but if anyone doesn't believe we will also have some serious heartache as well hasn't been paying attention 

That's why I wish we could cash in early in the pattern. Then most (not ji) will chill out and not make this place a dumpster fire with every bad model run. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is a case where the mean is misleading. As we get closer a mean pressure can look better because of a convergence on a general track and amplitude. So by losing members that had a really flat solution it will make the new consensus better. But if that consensus is no good for us and if lost a minority cluster that was NW and had a good solution (but wasn't impacting the mean slp plots much because they were removed from the majority region of low pressure and outnumbered) it's actually a bad run. EPS moved towards a more amped overall solution but late developing for us and lost some members from the tucked in camp that blasted us. Now if future runs continue to trend more amplified then it could become better again but this run itself was a slight step back from 0z imo. 

Figured that might be the case. Most times I would do a quick flip through of the individuals to get a sense of agreement between then and the mean. But seeing as I have no vested interest in this storm as I will be out of town I just haven't spent the time digging into it that I normally would.

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17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Figured that might be the case. Most times I would do a quick flip through of the individuals to get a sense of agreement between then and the mean. But seeing as I have no vested interest in this storm as I will be out of town I just haven't spent the time digging into it that I normally would.

That's right, only thinking of yourself. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If nothing else, the gfs is noticeably less suppressive at h5 d4-5. Not a bad thing considering its been the most suppressed model last couple days

Surface looks more like the EURO.   Snows are further north into KY at 138 and reaching near DC at 144. 

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