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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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I spoke too soon with a second wave developing which increases totals in the triangle anywhere from half a foot in southern wake to almost 10 in Durham.

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

max of 13" on the kuchera maps somewhere in Halifax county. 

Really good to have the euro on board.

Like I said before, it would be funny if our two big storms of the winter came in December and March (with very little in between).  

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Really good to have the euro on board.

Like I said before, it would be funny if our two big storms of the winter came in December and March (with very little in between).  

Very much so. Piques my interest about 100x more of practically any other model except the UK which isnt in range. 

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Nice hit for North Carolina, Not so much for South. Really like the STJ energy on this run. Would like to see higher QPF not sure on trends yet 

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This threat is really starting to evolve nicely. Great to see the Euro with a big hit for NC now. We are seeing strong signals for a storm on all the models now. And we have not had this much agreement and consistency for a threat this far out since the early December storm. This is legit. 

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I am officially in the 2 inch range now but we need to the low to be a bit father to the southeast to bring the bigger totals and colder air my way.

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39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Euro snow depth at day 10 (has snow falling starting this upcoming Sunday):

 

aaaa.jpg

This looks legit, with the snow hole in Western SC..

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1 minute ago, Snow dog said:

This looks legit, with the snow hole in Western SC..

I Agree it needs to be suppressed a bit further south for us in the Upstate

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Just now, CADEffect said:

I Agree it needs to be suppressed a bit further south for us in the Upstate

Euro shows ice to the south of the snow zone. One frame has ice all the way down to Orangeburg, over to Myrtle Beach, and then up to Wilmington.  

And I'm sure many upcoming model changes...

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38 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Just hope there's not a northwest trend where that core ends up in Roanoke, Va. 

A week out trends are mostly meaningless, although for the next 3ish days I'd like to keep it South.

We just might beat Boston this winter.

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From RAH:

Sun-Mon: As the N Great Lakes low wobbles E over the St Lawrence

Valley as energy feeds into its W side, there is a better chance of

broad cyclonic flow that will kick a cold front E through NC Sat

night or early Sun, bringing dry weather and colder air for NC as an

Arctic surface high builds across the north-central and

Northeast/Mid Atlantic states. But the ECMWF stalls the front closer

to NC, with low centers tracking along it drawing abundant moisture

and precip back over a wedged-in central NC, while the GFS stays

dry. Will keep the forecast pop-free for now, but again,

predictability is low. Thicknesses are projected to drop to around

25 m below normal for Sun and over 50 m below normal Mon, favoring

fair skies and chilly temps. -GIH

 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I wouldn’t want to be in the bullseye 7 days out! Plenty of time for this to trend North, and be a mid  Atlantic special 

Exactly... we've seen this all Winter long from one model or another.  In this case most of the globals show the storm system, which is encouraging, but I'm holding on to my big grain of salt for now. Lol

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42 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Exactly... we've seen this all Winter long from one model or another.  In this case most of the globals show the storm system, which is encouraging, but I'm holding on to my big grain of salt for now. Lol

Yep.  Monkeys may fly....and we may get 10" snow in ENC one full week into March

 

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