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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

It doesn’t matter if there is a SE ridge or not, 40s-60s aren’t going to get you wintry precip, and that’s about all we get as far as cold goes, the next 2 weeks plus

Some of those 384 global looks actually do have Egypt in the real cold.  I thought you were kidding when you posted "Congrats Egypt..." or whatever it was last week.

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4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

It doesn’t matter if there is a SE ridge or not, 40s-60s aren’t going to get you wintry precip, and that’s about all we get as far as cold goes, the next 2 weeks plus

I just mean that you don't need sustained cold to get a nice storm.  You need 1-2 days of cold combined with a good storm track.  
40s-60s are the new norm around here in the winter.  

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9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

I just mean that you don't need sustained cold to get a nice storm.  You need 1-2 days of cold combined with a good storm track.  
40s-60s are the new norm around here in the winter.  

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like 1-2 days of cold will be showing up anytime soon.  I’m seriously starting to think that the entire month of January is toast.  I really was optimistic about this winter finally being a good one too.  Maybe February will turn out ok.  It fits with all the analogs.  We’ll see.

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30 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

January 10-12 looks cold to me.  Not super cold, but something to watch.

Robert at Wxsouth says Europe and Russia to get very cold while we warm up.

Doesn’t the US usually turn cold like Europe in a couple weeks after?

If it does turn cold midmonth as it’s supposed to at least it will favor the coldest time period of the year.

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Robert at Wxsouth says Europe and Russia to get very cold while we warm up.

Doesn’t the US usually turn cold like Europe in a couple weeks after?

If it does turn cold midmonth as it’s supposed to at least it will favor the coldest time period of the year.

 

 

 

 

Usually with a negative NAO both western Europe and eastern NA can get cold and stormy.  But, I've seen many times where Europe is cold and we never benefit. 

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Seeing some cracks in the torchfest wall. Ive said to hang tight till Jan 1st and the models want be so depressing anymore. Sticking to my guns and well see come Tuesday. Cant look anyworsebthanbthese past few days lol, so can only go up. Think our friend the NAO may come around to save the day. Biggest thing that needs to happen is get the MJO in to phase 7 and prefearbly 8. Just get it moving out ofbthe dumpster fire phases. Lets see ifbthese cracks, keep trending next few runs. 

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29 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Seeing some cracks in the torchfest wall. Ive said to hang tight till Jan 1st and the models want be so depressing anymore. Sticking to my guns and well see come Tuesday. Cant look anyworsebthanbthese past few days lol, so can only go up. Think our friend the NAO may come around to save the day. Biggest thing that needs to happen is get the MJO in to phase 7 and prefearbly 8. Just get it moving out ofbthe dumpster fire phases. Lets see ifbthese cracks, keep trending next few runs. 

Well, HM seems to think a -NAO is coming, eventually: 

 

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I do wonder if we’ll end up with a January like the one we had in the mid-late beginning of the century where the first 15 days or so were really warm and the rest was historically cold. 

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Aside from looking/wishing for a pattern flip in the LR, the next item of interest may be the day 8-9 system showing up in the 0Z EC/6Z GFS. Both have a Miller B look with strong/cold HP in SE Canada. Probably doesn't mean much for this sub-forum, but something to keep our eye on, I suppose. 

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57 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Aside from looking/wishing for a pattern flip in the LR, the next item of interest may be the day 8-9 system showing up in the 0Z EC/6Z GFS. Both have a Miller B look with strong/cold HP in SE Canada. Probably doesn't mean much for this sub-forum, but something to keep our eye on, I suppose. 

It's possible. The models have been terrible lately.

Not sure if we should still put equal weight towards the GFS, and put more towards the FV3-GFS.  

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

It's possible. The models have been terrible lately.

Not sure if we should still put equal weight towards the GFS, and put more towards the FV3-GFS.  

The royal battle right now is between the eps and gefs handling, forecasting the mjo. Webber has pointed out how historically horrendous the eps is with forecasting mjo. Lets hope thats the case today cause gefs sends it phase 7 and 8 which is cold and eps sends it cod warm phase back to 4. Its been grinding or stuck in 5 or 6 past 12 days, hence why weve had warm weather. We have everything on our side but the mjo. Its the wrecking ball to our perfectly lined up pattern. We get to phase 7 and 8 then we will all be in business real fast. The soi has tanked to negative territory so thats a great sign. Trend is our friend, hopefully eps plays catch up in a day or two and gets a clue. Lets hope its off its rocker again with the mjo

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Looks like ATL finishes with over 70 inches of rain and a second place all time for rainfall in a year.  Would take about 71.45 to finish number 1. There is rain coming through tonight but doesn’t look to be quite enough for a number one finish.  

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I can't believe the 2 week outlooks for most of north america east of the rockies right now considering we are heading into what should be the dead of winter.

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52 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Here we go...this look over the top is what we're looking for in general to flip the pattern. Now, can we reel it in from 16 days? 

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_52.png

Browns winning the Super Bowl this year is a higher possibility than that... Never trust Day 16...

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Browns winning the Super Bowl this year is a higher possibility than that... Never trust Day 16...

I understand the sentiment but this is the precise evolution that the experts are predicting. At some point we’re going to need to see this look showing up consistently in the LR. Hopefully it starts now.

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5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I understand the sentiment but this is the precise evolution that the experts are predicting. At some point we’re going to need to see this look showing up consistently in the LR. Hopefully it starts now.

We can’t seem to get more than one, maybe two cycles in a row with that kind of evolution at the end.  If the experts are to be right, we’ll probably start seeing it pretty soon.  Hopefully nchailstorm’s corona doesn’t run out.

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2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Browns winning the Super Bowl this year is a higher possibility than that... Never trust Day 16...

Europe looks good and cold! That’s a given every year! The biggest cold pocket in the world, is not in or around North America! :)

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2 hours ago, WeatherNC said:

Happy New Year gents, 68F outback, punting to 1/21.

Think it will be getting cold sooner than that. Latest runs are indicating around the 15th.

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Much closer than day 16 is the day 10 EC, which has higher heights developing over AK and east of Greenland. So although it remains torchy down here the next two weeks; the pattern shift just may be on track. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

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1 hour ago, Poimen said:

Much closer than day 16 is the day 10 EC, which has higher heights developing over AK and east of Greenland. So although it remains torchy down here the next two weeks; the pattern shift just may be on track. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

I see the SOI index is in the negatve at -7.30. May seem low but last Saturday it was 15.44 so at least it going into the right direction.

Also GFS shows a snowstorm on the 16th. I know that still a couple weeks out but according to JB and others that when patern change kicks in. 

 https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/north-carolina/snow-depth-in/20190116-1800z.html

 

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The EPS looks straight wretched in the mid & extended range with the Alaska/Gulf of Alaska/West Coast trough trifecta.  That's about as bad as it gets out west.

GotMruy.gif

 

In contrast, the GEFS develops a nice pattern in its extended range.

Mxw156B.gif

 

The GEPS is somewhere in between the 2, but closer to the GEFS

 

The MJO on the RMM plots has made steady progress the last 2 days and has finally reached the beginning of phase 6.

0EQT7ry.gif

 

The dynamical model RMM plots bring the MJO into phase 7 in the next 5 days, then have varying long term MJO solutions.  Given the current MJO amplitude, we should expect the MJO to continue on thru phases 6-7-8-1 over time, with the specifics around the timing to be determined.

 

The filtered VP portion of the MJO shows that the enhanced convection associated with the MJO has moved from the Maritime Continent out into the western Pacific over the past week (blues and purple).

MkPCpTa.gif

Y6jRMba.gif

Loop of those images shown here: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/mjo/global_analyses.html

 

The week 2 GFS forecast of MJO filtered VP shows the suppressed convection moving east and centered over the Maritime Continent, with the enhanced convection extending from the central & eastern Pacific to Africa.  That's where we want to be from a tropical forcing standpoint to begin to see improving western ridging / eastern troughing solutions in the models. 

84RSm7e.gif

 

The official SSWarming wind reversal is occurring today.  The extent to which it propagates down into the troposphere to affect our weather remains to be seen.  It this one does propagate downward, it looks like it's going to take some time - at least a few weeks.

 

I think there is good reason to remain optimistic about wintry weather returning in the 2nd half of Jan into Feb, but until we see good ensemble runs showing consistently, it's all speculation.  

 

I did find it kind of funny that the very last image of yesterday's Euro Weeklies for Feb 9-14 was the best image of the run, as if the model is just wanting to tease us

xeHIiiz.gif

25932Hw.gif

 

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