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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Nothing looks good on the models for a widespread SE winter storm. Yeah, maybe some CAD areas score a little ice but nothing big is showing right now.

Only positive thing, is it's looking like we don't torch like we did last year. The GFS from a couple of days back showed this possibility.  

 

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GFS also showing no real cold coming back in either.  Confidence in getting another decent snow storm in NC growing very low now for remainder of this winter in my view.  Getting close to throwing the bloody towel in.

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

GFS also showing no real cold coming back in either.  Confidence in getting another decent snow storm in NC growing very low now for remainder of this winter in my view.  Getting close to throwing the bloody towel in.

JB said winter is not over for the SE!! What could go wrong!

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18 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree with this mostly, with the caveat that I’d argue that you actually have better than coin flip odds if you go with persistence and go warm.  For whatever reason, warm wins now.  Something is going on that essentially renders analogs of yesteryear useless.

Very said times in the winter anymore for the SE. Could be cyclical. All +NAO lately, warm AMO so it could flip. But the longer we go with warmer being the normal I fear I'm wrong and this is the way we're heading.

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38 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Did the euro or eps give us any love?

It doesn't look bad. Not sure that a conus wide trough with a war would do us any good in the immediate SE for snow though. Looks more of the same to me. But who knows?

731937520_midfeb.png.991074b4bb47172986e8a73ad9701e2b.png

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55 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

It doesn't look bad. Not sure that a conus wide trough with a war would do us any good in the immediate SE for snow though. Looks more of the same to me. But who knows?

731937520_midfeb.png.991074b4bb47172986e8a73ad9701e2b.png

I think it’s the ONLY model with an even remote decent look! And that’s sad! All the other ones are straight torch/ SE ridge, ugliness, till Atleast 3rd week of February 

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5 hours ago, CaryWx said:

GFS also showing no real cold coming back in either.  Confidence in getting another decent snow storm in NC growing very low now for remainder of this winter in my view.  Getting close to throwing the bloody towel in.

I threw mine in last weekend.  There are actually some encouraging signs for the MJO progression for the second half of February, but I suspect that it is too late for us.  MA and NE could get score though.  

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think it’s the ONLY model with an even remote decent look! And that’s sad! All the other ones are straight torch/ SE ridge, ugliness, till Atleast 3rd week of February 

Well, if you have to have only one model on your side, I would prefer it to be the euro.

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4 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Very said times in the winter anymore for the SE. Could be cyclical. All +NAO lately, warm AMO so it could flip. But the longer we go with warmer being the normal I fear I'm wrong and this is the way we're heading.

The NAO is known to be streaky on a decadal scale, so I am hoping that some the warmth of this past decade might be natural variation.  That being said I expect regular snowfall (ie a nice one every three years or so) in the non-mountainous areas of NC/SC to cease in the next decade or two.

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29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well, the GFSv3 just crushed NC with ice! Winning!!!

That model is Atrocious!! It shows snow behind just about every cold front that comes through, how many times does that happen............................... 

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4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

That model is Atrocious!! It shows snow behind just about every cold front that comes through, how many times does that happen............................... 

Yeah, I just realized it was 13+ days out! Right when JB said winter was going to start! #ALLIN

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46 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

That model is Atrocious!! It shows snow behind just about every cold front that comes through, how many times does that happen............................... 

Yeah, I don't have much faith in the FV3 in the long range. However, this is certainly the type of pattern to see a big cad event, if those highs to the north verify.

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yeah, I don't have much faith in the FV3 in the long range. However, this is certainly the type of pattern to see a big cad event, if those highs to the north verify.

Yes, I definitely agree with that, just need to see some support from a model other than FV3.  I think there is a real possibility for some Ice to show up in the CAD areas before 15th  and it may get real interesting sometime after the 15th.  Like you said if those highs verify?!! 

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Well the 12z FV3 has the Tuesday storm again. Minor to significant ice event across the Piedmont sections of NC, VA, and north parts of the up state. 

That's only 7 days out. In years past, we would start getting excited about the possibility. Honestly I expect the model to lose it at 18z. Plus there isn't other model agreement as well. 

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18z gfs tries to bring a storm into northern NC on Tuesday as well but mostly north.  Odd movement of surface low to off the coast.

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12 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

18z FV3 bringing the goods to the Carolinas. Best run in quite some time 

for Tues 2/12?

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Considering the GFS had 60s for the last few runs @ 18z on 2/12, this is a HUGE step in the right direction

gfs_T2m_seus_29.png

 

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31 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Considering the GFS had 60s for the last few runs @ 18z on 2/12, this is a HUGE step in the right direction

gfs_T2m_seus_29.png

 

Yeah it's stepping towards the FV3; which is showing a significant winter storm at the same period (day 7) then something else a couple days afterwards. I sill refuse to get drawn in; but if we can get more model support and get this to day 5, maybe....

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1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

18z FV3 bringing the goods to the Carolinas. Best run in quite some time 

That looks like a nasty ice storm...rather pass on that one if it verifies

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10 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

That looks like a nasty ice storm...rather pass on that one if it verifies

Need a solid ice pack with these strong transient highs. It’s the tablesetter for the Thursday storm..

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3 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Need a solid ice pack with these strong transient highs. It’s the tablesetter for the Thursday storm..

Good point, I didn't see that system coming up Thursday...looks very interesting...would love to see another nice storm for our region.  Have a good one!

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32 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

That looks like a nasty ice storm...rather pass on that one if it verifies

Unfortunately the only frame that looks good for those south of I-40 (non ice) shows up at hour 360. THAT looks really good, but at 360 it's a complete pipe dream.

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Well it would be Valentines Day.  Mother Nature and Old Man Winter may be getting together for a quick fling.  And I do mean quick cuz there isnt any sustained cold on the horizon.  Sun angle coming into play and after this warm week ground temps will suck.  So its going to have to be the real deal as far as cold and I'm not seeing it here.  Temps around freezing wont get it done.

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