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stormtracker

December 9/10 Storm

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7 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

So... it's actually happening here in central VA?

Perhaps but that doesn’t mean you get to post the Ron Paul “it’s hapoening” meme.  Give it another model cycle.  Trust me

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

VAZ036-508-090715-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0011.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/
Nelson-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected with accumulations around 3 to 6 inches.

* WHERE...Nelson County, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. The
  heaviest snow will be Sunday afternoon and early evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads.
  Travel will be difficult.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

VAZ025-037-090715-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0027.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/
Augusta-Albemarle-
602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected with accumulations around 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Augusta and Albemarle Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
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A separate concern for heavy snow in south-central VA would be phase given that the uppers never become better than marginal, and the depth of cold air is not dramatic. I expect places like RIC could see enough precip for 10" snowfalls but how much will lie on the ground at any given time as snow? Maybe 2-4" ... somewhat higher regions further west might do better with their ratios. 

If the storm does jog north and overspreads DCA to BWI then snow ratios should be better since the storm would have to tackle a colder air mass in place there. So the odds on all snow would be good if there's anything to be had at all. My current view is 30% chance measurable for DCA, 15% for IAD to BWI, 50-50 in southern suburbs. Best snowfall locations likely to be near NC-VA border west of Danville. 

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From updated LWX AFD as of 720 PM

12z and 18z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. Mean
QPF from model output has risen to nearly an inch at the
southern most reaches of our CWA (southern Nelson County), and
just under a half inch near CHO. The northern edge of
accumulating snow remains a challenge, but there is a non-
zero/increasing chance for flurries or a light coating of snow
to near I-66/US-50, in line with the northern edge of a
baroclinic leaf developing upstream on satellite (marking the
northern edge of stronger synoptic upward motion).

As such, have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for Nelson
County and the central Blue Ridge Mountains, with a Winter
Weather Advisory for Albemarle and Augusta Counties. Winter
Weather Advisories may need to be extended farther north in area
into the Virginia Piedmont and portions of the Shenandoah Valley
of Virginia, and Winter Storm Warnings may need to be extended
north in area into portions of the central Shenandoah Valley and
perhaps as far north as the Virginia Piedmont. Will re-assess
headline decisions with the 00z guidance later tonight. If the
northward trend continues (and it has for the last few model
runs), then snow amounts will need to be increased and headlines
will have to extend farther north. The most likely forecast was
tweaked up slightly from the 12z forecast, which leaned about
2/3rds on a straight blend of 12z guidance and 1/3 previous
forecast for continuity`s sake, offering respect to the strong
confluence zone to the north. However, some outlier ensemble
members continue to show even higher significant snowfall
amounts (see Winter Weather Page at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter
for latest range of possibility graphics). Since this is a
dynamic system with a lot of moisture and a tight heavy snowfall
gradient, staying tuned to later forecast updates is prudent.

&&

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I am riding the edge on that.  Literally the edge.  Need a 10 mile tick north jiist to lock in flurries.  Not too much to ask. 

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Oh noes.  SREF bumped south a little from 15z.  ::it’snothappening::
Often a north trend at the last minute send up trending south at last second
  • Sad 1

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14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Oh noes.  SREF bumped south a little from 15z.  ::it’snothappening::

It's not updated on the mag website

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1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said:

We really needed the NAM to go north. Ugh....

I mean it’s so slight south it’s still worth seeing what happens.  You didn’t think we would see several ticks north at this point did you?  Not happening.   

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No. But at this stage, the NAM is I’m good range. Just wish casting that a larger move North would put NOVA in the 1-3/2-4 range instead of a dusting/half inch which is all we got after these minor ticks north

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