• Member Statistics

    16,623
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    friday
    Newest Member
    friday
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Their quite busy tracking two and possibly three long range threats and talking PDIII in the the MA thread haven'y you gotten the memo?

 

Nah didnt really delve into LR specific threats tbh. But yeah I did see mention of some dates. Not thrilled yet. Like I said next tracking for me is seeing if we can hit 60 next week then I assure you if we do we will be tracking 'something' shortly after. One day at a time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fwiw the pattern Feb 10-20 is going to be the best we had all winter, if it ends up delivering two snowstorms to the MA only is another story...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Fwiw the pattern Feb 10-20 is going to be the best we had all winter, if it ends up delivering two snowstorms to the MA only is another story...

 

I won't disagree it looks good on paper. But cmon man we've been here at least 4 times this winter already where the pattern looks amazing in 12 days, the usual suspects are cherry picking the details to show how it cant NOT happen, then within 7-8 days the good looks turn just meh yet still delivers some goods to the Mid Atl. Maybe this time will be different. Until we get within 120 hours I'm on the outside looking in. I'd rather be the last one on the train than be the conductor repeatedly driving a trainwreck. Here's hoping for the best!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0z NAM went North last minute with light snow tomorrow heaviest band right across the M/D line into Northern DE and across into S NJ. Some light accumulations even up here if the shift N is to be believed. Fluffy powder good ratio stuff.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z NAM went North last minute with light snow tomorrow heaviest band right across the M/D line into Northern DE and across into S NJ. Some light accumulations even up here if the shift N is to be believed. Fluffy powder good ratio stuff.

I have family and friends who live in the 3 southernmost counties of NJ. I send out forecasts to a bunch of people and have for years w snow and big events. My call for Fri was 1-3” when I made it yesterday for those counties. I feel pretty good about it still.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, RedSky said:

Fwiw the pattern Feb 10-20 is going to be the best we had all winter, if it ends up delivering two snowstorms to the MA only is another story...

 

Overnight guidance unanimously went opposite and is showing that period now as one of the worst of the winter with several systems setting up like a freight train line and tracking far to our N and W.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, RedSky said:

The weeklies rock from mid-Feb to mid-Mar here we come two thousand and eighteen part deux?

 

Have you followed the weeklies at all this season? You do know they are flawed due to the MJO pac forcing situation right? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Overnight guidance unanimously went opposite and is showing that period now as one of the worst of the winter with several systems setting up like a freight train line and tracking far to our N and W.

Yea, ready to start tracking severe weather honestly, hard to believe, at least down this way, we have had yet another winter that is MIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Overnight guidance unanimously went opposite and is showing that period now as one of the worst of the winter with several systems setting up like a freight train line and tracking far to our N and W.

Not sure they can be any worst, can they?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Not sure they can be any worst, can they?

Depends on how u define 'worst'. I would rather have the cold but dry look than the train of storms that we keep repeatedly mssing to the N and W.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Depends on how u define 'worst'. I would rather have the cold but dry look than the train of storms that we keep repeatedly mssing to the N and W.

Let me guess, the Twitter experts are now saying Feb 20-march 10 is going to be an epic pattern. At some point these guys will be right, may not be til 2020, but broken clock and everything.  Can't believe the amount still willing to go down with the ship. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Overnight guidance unanimously went opposite and is showing that period now as one of the worst of the winter with several systems setting up like a freight train line and tracking far to our N and W.

It changes every day so who knows

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ensembles are split around day 8. half want to keep the positive NAO and keep the pac garbage pretty much ending winter, and the other half tank the nao and give us a pretty decent look especially for overruninng. A slight step back from 12z yesterday where it was more of a 60/40 split. As ralph said above, anything outside 5 days is a crap shoot. Unless it's a cutter, those always end up verifying 10 days out lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

ensembles are split around day 8. half want to keep the positive NAO and keep the pac garbage pretty much ending winter, and the other half tank the nao and give us a pretty decent look especially for overruninng. A slight step back from 12z yesterday where it was more of a 60/40 split. As ralph said above, anything outside 5 days is a crap shoot. Unless it's a cutter, those always end up verifying 10 days out lol

I posted in Mid Atl that a blend of the 2 camps has basically been what has verified all season. No epic snow look nor epic fail look. Middle of the road generally with more of a transient vibe overall. I dont see overwhelming evidence one side or the other for the mid Feb pattern. I guess if u r banking on a Nino-ish end to the season (tho still not even classified as weak) one would generally assume we get some better looks even if transient. Weve seen this in recent years even in a Nina so I'm not sure if the HL blocking is truly a function of the enso state OR more of a decadal phenomena in which case then back loaded winter is certainly possible. I'm hesitant to dive in to either camp attm but will say I have been chirping about getting ONE late season widespread SECS+ before all is said and done and I stick to that. It may take a fluke and transient meh setup but I think there is a higher chance for it than normal as we head to the finish line. I threw some bait out in other forums to see if any of the other frequent posters are seeing anything similar and lo and behold it seems I'm not alone in this thinking. Some interesting analog years being tossed around that were back loaded as well but most of you know how I feel about weight of particular analogs. 

Headed to Melrose Diner to see if anyone 'in the know' can leak some further info.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.