dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: We boot. Not what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Greg said: Oh, I know that it wasn't a weak El Nino like it is now but when you actually look at both weak La Ninas and Ninos you can get similar set-ups in a slightly different pattern. Just a thought, nothing etched in stone of course. Weak la nina is actually our second most prolific snowfall producer behind weak el nino...both are good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We boot. If afforded the opportunity to have either the GFS or James resolve the plethora of complex intricacies surrounding northern stream phasing at several days lead time, I'd opt for the latter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 12z GGEM was similar to the 12z GFS, It had the flow compressed by the PV and kept the SLP well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If given the chance to have the GFS or James resolve the plethora of complex intricacies surrounding northern stream phasing at several days lead time, I'd opt for the latter. “So your saying there’s a chance” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If given the chance to have the GFS or James resolve the plethora of complex intricacies surrounding northern stream phasing at several days lead time, I'd opt for the latter. LOL, just speaking verbatim of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 CMC was wonky, but still delivered to SNE. Of course, when does it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: The 12z GGEM was similar to the 12z GFS, It had the flow compressed by the PV and kept the SLP well offshore. GEM had the thing in Ginx' dog house last run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Canadian ended up giving ern areas a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: CMC was wonky, but still delivered to SNE. Of course, when does it not? It was quite messy at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: It's going to take 5 to 7 bumps, a couple of nudges and a push or two for this system to be interesting for me.... Agree. GFS is well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian ended up giving ern areas a decent storm. It always loves those dual lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian ended up giving ern areas a decent storm. Would not shock me if that ended up closer to sensible reality....a less than optimal phase and a middling a event given aforementioned compressed geopotential medium.. But we likely see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Pissing off the pope, one model at a time... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Would not shock me if that ended up closer to reality....a less than optimal phase and a middling a event. But we likely see some snow. I'd take that in early December. Real fun comes in Jan/Feb anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Nice early improvements then pv squashes. Raise hands if you think gfs will handle these features properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice early improvements then pv squashes. Raise hands if you think gfs will handle yhese properly. It sucks with these types, Maybe the FV3 improves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'd take that in early December. Real fun comes in Jan/Feb anyway. Regardless of what we see, my money is on at least one and probably two larger events later this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian ended up giving ern areas a decent storm. The AEMATT crowd approves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Regardless of what we see, my money is on at least one and probably two larger events later this season. Really hard to bet against that given the past 8 winters...even without looking at any weather data lol. I'll put money on at least one or two big ones in SNE just playing the odds...like where some jackpot area is 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Really hard to bet against that given the past 8 winters...even without looking at any weather data lol. I'll put money on at least one or two big ones in SNE just playing the odds...like where some jackpot area is 18"+. We will have an event in SNE where 30" is measured somewhere this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice early improvements then pv squashes. Raise hands if you think gfs will handle these features properly. If, regardless of all the upgrades the GFS has had, is still a progressive model, then slow everything up by about 6 or so hours including the PV and you can see the potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet if you researched the topic thoroughly, you would be hard pressed to unearth a major winter storm that heavily impacted the mid atl and whiffed sne in a weak modoki el nino season. Plenty were modeled to, sure....Jan 2005 one very notable one....Jan 2015 was supposed to fish. Northern stream will rule this season. Ponder that one for a bit... Not everyone agrees that this is a weak modoki el nino. I've seen references to it being a weak to moderate el nino. Which years do you consider to be a weak modoki el nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Like I said earlier ... the GGEM is the only model that's consistently showing much impact this far up the eastern seaboard over many cycles.. this one is no exception. Which may or may not fit in with folks' preferences for deterministic Meteorology ... probably less. Just sayn'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hate to say ... still seeing velocity surplus issues with the GFS (and the GGEM too) that is lending to their smearing initial cyclogenesis quickly east and sort of dissecting it from the deeper layer support. The GGEM has a mid level wave mechanical issues in deciding how much so to phase or negatively interfere ...netting a weaker over-all system on this run. The GFS also has less N/stream ... owing to it's straight east out to sea solution; however, that doesn't really fit very well with PNAP/NAO status at the time... Euro may clear things up but it'll prolly have it's own notion on these various fields. December 9-10 is a hot mess! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hate to say ... still seeing velocity surplus issues with the GFS (and the GGEM too) that is lending to their smearing initial cyclogenesis quickly east and sort of dissecting it from the deeper layer support. The GGEM has a mid level wave mechanical issues in deciding how much so to phase or negatively interfere ...netting a weaker over-all system on this run. The GFS also has less N/stream ... owing to it's straight east out to sea solution; however, that doesn't really fit very well with PNAP/NAO status at the time... Euro may clear things up but it'll prolly have it's own notion on these various fields. December 9-10 is a hot mess! Ventrice seems all in. He's saying stage is appearing to be set for classic mid -atl snowstorm. Potential for 1-2 feet in NC-VA. If that happens it will make many here reach for the toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ukie looks pretty far south. Tough to tell what it does after, without seeing 500 vort plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Ventrice seems all in. He's saying stage is appearing to be set for classic mid -atl snowstorm. Potential for 1-2 feet in NC-VA. If that happens it will make many here reach for the toaster. The Baltimore weenies will cry harder if RIC gets 6+ and they’re smoking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 hours ago, jbenedet said: Still think this is warm/wet outcome for most, on the 9th/10th. VT and ME in best spots for snow. This is not a real post right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: The Baltimore weenies will cry harder if RIC gets 6+ and they’re smoking Perhaps a joint support group between the folks in SNE and MD?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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