leo2000 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Say goodbye to the pig. That's can't be a negative EPO showing up is it now? Plus we don't have a raging positive NAO too worry about either like last year. Forecasts of 500mb Height Teleconnection Indices, from ESRL/PSD GEFS Reforecast2 Data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 EPO def starts going negative prior to Xmas but the cold wants to dive south to the west of us first. That can be an ideal pattern for a grinch cutter. Hopefully we can end up north of any gradient but no guarantee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EPO def starts going negative prior to Xmas but the cold wants to dive south to the west of us first. That can be an ideal pattern for a grinch cutter. Hopefully we can end up north of any gradient but no guarantee. I’m sure they’ll be a chart posted to disprove that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPO def starts going negative prior to Xmas but the cold wants to dive south to the west of us first. That can be an ideal pattern for a grinch cutter. Hopefully we can end up north of any gradient but no guarantee. Cmc and gfs are way different. Euro and EPS has been too warm in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Watch midweek next week, that H5 trough looks mighty tasty as half the GEFS ensemble mean is showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Whatever...I'll take a Grinch storm if it means more sustained cold and snow chances after. I think most on here would too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 43 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Lol it’s only December 7th. Raindancewx getting to you?? Between now and xmas more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Cmc and gfs are way different. Euro and EPS has been too warm in the long range. GEFS doesn't look that good either. At the very end it looks colder but still has some of the same issue of diving cold west first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will, that arctic shortwave keeps moving further west across Manitoba, Canada now on the models. I think it could mean serious business if it drops south through the Great Lakes. Jesus , enough of the arctic shortwave...its flurries at best. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sure they’ll be a chart posted to disprove that. With a dog with bells on under it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus , enough of the arctic shortwave...its flurries at best. Eh. There's a chance it could produce something better...esp out there....but it's the type of system you can't really analyze at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus , enough of the arctic shortwave...its flurries at best. Not if the models trend more south, just watch, we will get accumulating snows on the coastline before the warm air arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: With a dog with bells on under it? Be nice, or you’ll get poo in your stockings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Eh. There's a chance it could produce something better...esp out there....but it's the type of system you can't really analyze at this time range. Its not plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not plowable. How would you know? You can't make that assumption at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Don't worry, it's not a 1994/1995 winter season. Doesn't fit the analog profile for this winter season/year. In fact this season is following a decent amount of the weak El Nino Modoki analogs so far. Pattern going as predicted so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How would you know? You can't make that assumption at this point. Okay, sit at the beach with a plow on your caboose and wait for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How would you know? You can't make that assumption at this point. Ain’t gonna happen James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 49 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Lol it’s only December 7th. Raindancewx getting to you?? I'm sure raindancewx is feeling pretty confident right now. I believe 94/95 was his top analog followed by 06/07. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: I'm sure raindancewx is feeling pretty confident right now. I believe 94/95 was his top analog followed by 06/07. I'm sure he's confident, too, which is why I think he is a good bit away from being a skilled seasonal forecaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm sure raindancewx is feeling pretty confident right now. I believe 94/95 was his top analog followed by 06/07. If Raindancewx saw November and December so far, he would realize that the 94/95 and 06/07 winter were actually a different and warmer pattern before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Greg said: If Raindancewx saw November and December so far, he would realize that the 94/95 and 06/07 was actually a different and warmer pattern before. Early December was bad luck in a good pattern....I'm not sure how that is 1994 or 2006. In fact, its better than 2014 and 2004. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm sure raindancewx is feeling pretty confident right now. I believe 94/95 was his top analog followed by 06/07. Why would anyone be spiking 3 months from verification? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Some of you have completely lost your marbles. I mean loony bin type stuff. Good Lord. This pattern is nothing like 2006 or 1994. All we are seeing, is in intraseasonal 2 to 3 week hiatus and what will probably flip back to a pattern similar to what we had before. That’s all. If I’m wrong then bump this post, but for God’s sake, embrace the hiatus and know that it should flip back. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Early December was bad luck in a good pattern....I'm not sure how that is 1994 or 2006. In fact, its better than 2014 and 2004. I agree totally. The pattern is not Nov/Dec 1994 or 2006. Sure you can get some cutters even in a good pattern but I do recognize this pattern and it has been seen before in a good way, which we all know. We all need to be a little patient that's all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus , enough of the arctic shortwave...its flurries at best. Manitoba Mauler incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some of you have completely lost your marbles. I mean loony bin type stuff. Good Lord. This pattern is nothing like 2006 or 1994. All we are seeing, is in intraseasonal 2 to 3 week hiatus and what will probably flip back to a pattern similar to what we had before. That’s all. If I’m wrong then bump this post, but for God’s sake, embrace the hiatus and know that it should flip back. Damn it. I was locking in V-Day 2007 already. No 36” storm for me I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Whineminster said: Manitoba Mauler incoming Our favorite kind if it does it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Greg said: Our favorite kind if it does it right. Yes, I think the latest NAM is trying, but just misses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Not trying to stir the pot or anything, but the NAM did look like it was trying for the 60 yard hail mary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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