LurkerBoy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just prior to Christmas. The way things are going, probably will happen. Terrible month. Either cold and dry and every warm-up is rain. Hopefully it improves after Torchmas. I think it will - that said, I have hope that the look around xmas will improve. Tell me if I'm wrong, but the dynamics of this year's weather feels different compared to that of previous torchmasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Bluebird morning at Stowe, Weir Lundsted posted. Arctic blues>Tropical blues 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some other stuff too. Hopefully the better guidance by a long shot is wrong. I'm not sure I buy a Christmas torch here quite yet. It's because the EPO tanks and the cold plunged into Plains first. Yea the GEFS and GEPS look better for sure. The GEFS have been doing a better job the last month or so than the EPS. Certainly no bitterly cold air in site for awhile but I think once past the 20th or so it will be much better for snow chances than the next week or 10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Zach’s Pop said: Yea the GEFS and GEPS look better for sure. The GEFS have been doing a better job the last month or so than the EPS. Certainly no bitterly cold air in site for awhile but I think once past the 20th or so it will be much better for snow chances than the next week or 10 days. I don't have that stats in front of me, but it seems like the euro guidance has handled this better overall. Not that you should buy it outright, but it's been decent. BTW, yesterday when I talked about Mike Vs stuff...he has a euro set of guidance for tropical forcing. Things like 850 winds, VP200 etc. The GEFS can have a retro bias I guess with that among other things, so it typically may not handle things right. FWIW I like to have some fun with the all cold all the time crew. But, I always put my thoughts out....and it's not always going to paint a rosy (or should I say white) picture. I like snow more as much as anyone...but I remove that bias as best as I can when it comes to putting my thoughts out there. I know that's not what people want to hear, but why should I twist my thought process around for that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Interesting expansion of expected snow on the NAMs in Va to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't have that stats in front of me, but it seems like the euro guidance has handled this better overall. Not that you should buy it outright, but it's been decent. BTW, yesterday when I talked about Mike Vs stuff...he has a euro set of guidance for tropical forcing. Things like 850 winds, VP200 etc. The GEFS can have a retro bias I guess with that among other things, so it typically may not handle things right. FWIW I like to have some fun with the all cold all the time crew. But, I always put my thoughts out....and it's not always going to paint a rosy (or should I say white) picture. I like snow more as much as anyone...but I remove that bias as best as I can when it comes to putting my thoughts out there. I know that's not what people want to hear, but why should I twist my thought process around for that? I respect this. And speaking for myself, if I ever am over emotional while responding to you, it’ll always be from a place of wanting to shoot the messenger. that said, just finagled some views at guidance, and it looks like we get a cutter then avg temps up till Xmas with possible warm ups when it gets wet. Not the end of the world. A very “2018” winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 GFS really goes to town with ULL snow after the rain next weekend in CNNE. Have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I'm having a hard time with CLT seeing a lot of snow. FWIW the so called snow maps on weather.us look atrocious. It's giving CLT snow with what appears to be some parts of the 850-700 column above 0C. I wonder of this is a case, of the damming resulting in more ice..or penetrating a little more south, but the warm tongues that close to the source region may need respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Zach’s Pop said: You mean the EPS. Gefs has schooled the eps so far this season. It keeps showing warmth until it changes as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS really goes to town with ULL snow after the rain next weekend in CNNE. Have to watch that. Just because I like to think things, it would be nice if we could get some trending to at least start as snow. No reason to think that'll happen of course, but weenie hope springs eternal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs has schooled the eps so far this season. It keeps showing warmth until it changes as it gets closer. The EPS latched on to this relaxation. Maybe earlier in the season the GEFS did better, but not lately IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm having a hard time with CLT seeing a lot of snow. FWIW the so called snow maps on weather.us look atrocious. It's giving CLT snow with what appears to be some parts of the 850-700 column above 0C. I wonder of this is a case, of the damming resulting in more ice..or penetrating a little more south, but the warm tongues that close to the source region may need respect. 6Z Euro was colder in the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Arctic blue > Tropical blue #2 Jay Peak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 6Z Euro was colder in the column It's a classic razor's edge thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Arctic blue > Tropical blue #2 Jay Peak That becomes debatable beach side in Kauai with a mai-tai in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: That becomes debatable beach side in Kauai with a mai-tai in hand. Some like it hot some like it cold, some like legal pot in Mass,I am told Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a classic razor's edge thing. Totally, geezuz congrats Lubbock, Virginia is interesting to me. Wonder how close to Norfolk this gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I agree with Scooter that EPS has gotten the better of GEFS lately....after the GEFS had done better with the November cold. EPS was seeing this coming mild period much more consistently than GEFS. Hopefully we stay on the cold side of the gradient near Xmas but it's def possible we are pretty mild with a classic grinch cutter too because of the EPO shoving the cold air straight south to the west of us while we have no blocking support in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Fwiw, for the southern storm, I kind of like near RIC for a northern edge fronto/def band. Kind of like the philly band in 2/5/10. That same type of forcing. There will be a sharp cutoff somewhere just north of where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Just prior to Christmas. The way things are going, probably will happen. Terrible month. Either cold and dry and every warm-up is rain. Hopefully it improves after Torchmas. Could December's pattern stick for the rest of winter. I realize pretty much everyone thinks it'll turn around in Jan or February, but is that really guaranteed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Could December's pattern stick for the rest of winter. I realize pretty much everyone thinks it'll turn around in Jan or February, but is that really guaranteed. It would pretty almost unheard of for the pattern not to flip to much colder at some point by February. Only the super ninos seem to have warm/mild the way through. Other ninos tend to flip either in January or February. Weaker modoki ninos are even more likely to flip and usually it's a harsher period of cold/snow too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Well I respect Orh Wxman, and Coaster WX expert opinions on this. I am leaning more toward Isotherm's own expert opinion when he says that the EPS has a bias of overdoing geopotential heights over the East. As well as overestimating the low-magnitude MJO signal and goes on to say that the ""GFS based guidance will once again prove superior in the LR". Another expert opinion I agree with is PB GFI as well as SnowyHibbo. Here says This is the last example, but if we ignore the models past bias we will make the same mistakes in the future. The model does hit forecasts, I am not saying that but this corrected from a 500 that is a lot worse than where the negatives are now forecast in the EP on its new 11 to 15 Again the problem is washing troughs out on the EC. When I see the new 11 - 15 I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It would pretty almost unheard of for the pattern not to flip to much colder at some point by February. Only the super ninos seem to have warm/mild the way through. Other ninos tend to flip either in January or February. Weaker modoki ninos are even more likely to flip and usually it's a harsher period of cold/snow too. Who/how many/how long until people start saying that Will punted January? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Who/how many/how long until people start saying that Will punted January? Lol. They'd need some reading comprehension brush up...since it reads much cold by February. Some years like 94-95 and 06-07 were warm in January and finally flipped cold for February. But most flipped before that...like '02-'03, '04-'05 and '14-'15...'57-'58 and '65-'66 for earlier examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Who/how many/how long until people start saying that Will punted January? Ruff ruff pattern ruff not ruff colder ruff ruff warm/mild ruff Januart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Well I respect Orh Wxman, and Coaster WX expert opinions on this. I am leaning more toward Isotherm's own expert opinion when he says that the EPS has a bias of overdoing geopotential heights over the East. As well as overestimating the low-magnitude MJO signal and goes on to say that the ""GFS based guidance will once again prove superior in the LR". Another expert opinion I agree with is PB GFI as well as SnowyHibbo. Here says This is the last example, but if we ignore the models past bias we will make the same mistakes in the future. The model does hit forecasts, I am not saying that but this corrected from a 500 that is a lot worse than where the negatives are now forecast in the EP on its new 11 to 15 Again the problem is washing troughs out on the EC. When I see the new 11 - 15 I don't buy it. That’s a pretty good foreacast. Low heights in AK. Warmer Canada and the storm signal in the south. All going to plan. Uncle Leo, you’re only fooling yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We are pretty much following the 02 03 pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We are pretty much following the 02 03 pattern . I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We are pretty much following the 02 03 pattern . I'm not totally sold on that pattern yet. There are several weak El Nino winters that this is actually following, not just 2002/2003. An average of them all may actually end up being more appropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 So is the interest in CLT similar to like when parents who cannot biologically make a child go to an adoption agency? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now