pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It all comes down to the positioning of the northern short waves and the PV....need to time it where the low comes up the coast right after the front that provides the cold air.... IF that HP is as big as modeled, no doubt that will play into CAD and front end thumpage potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 This one is for you @Bob Chill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Can someone describe the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Euro op has been lights out deadly at this range since the upgrade! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I think we need Mappys description Just read your last post and agree wholeheartedly. Lots of options, but lots of possible hits. While its pure craziness to parse op runs at 198hours, like stated many times, its why many are here...so long as you dont live and die by each run (and post like it). Level heads and keep it Chill (see what I did there Bob). Fun times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Hopefully a majority of the 12z EPS members will agree with or look something like the 12z Euro OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just read your last post and agree wholeheartedly. Lots of options, but lots of possible hits. While its pure craziness to parse op runs at 198hours, like stated many times, its why many are here...so long as you dont live and die by each run (and post like it). Level heads and keep it Chill (see what I did there Bob). Fun times ahead.... We're just having fun. Living the dream. Some people need to chill. No one is expecting any run to nail details at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 At least no puppies were sacrificed at 12z. That means lead time is slowly lessening on this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 My nooner takeaway.... IF you take a blend of GFS and EURO, its still a decent track, which is all i worry about right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just made my forecast snowfall map for this storm. I'll be showing you all soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro op has been lights out deadly at this range since the upgrade! Your point is well taken. However the last couple years much of that variability was in a northern stream dominant Nina pattern and guidance was all over the place from range with longwave features and even if a storm would exist at all. At least this time all the guidance had a storm in the same general area and we're debating details. Important details but the models might be more stable at range in this pattern. An stj system traversing the Conus as a cold pattern starts to relax in a nino is a pretty typical way we score. Doesn't mean this won't fail just some reasons to be more hopeful then long range teases during a Nina pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Hopefully a majority of the 12z EPS members will agree with or look something like the 12z Euro OP There were a bunch that looked pretty similar last night. EPS typically follows the op in general inside of 10 days so the EPS run will prob look really good. Cuts both ways though. If the op loses the good track @ 0z then the ens will follow the lead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said: Just made my forecast snowfall map for this storm. I'll be showing you all soon We're all holding our breaths! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Euro ens are solid. Still spread of course but a lot to like this run... A LOT 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 It's notable that we torch 1 weekend before a weekend #ecs potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m just having fun with you bud but the “maded” stamp at the bottom just killed me Gotta keep it real. I’m glad someone noticed maded hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What took you so long? It takes time to cut and paste off of your favorite EPS ensemble member. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's notable that we torch 1 weekend before a weekend #ecs potential. Ah...but then 5+ days of cold before said storm chance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens are solid. Still spread of course but a lot to like this run... A LOT Thats great news Bob. I hope we can count on the EURO and the EPS as being torch bearers for this storm and keep some semblance of a big storm for us. Still 8 days away unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Looking further down the line... the EPS is shifting the AK trough/vortex further west into the Bering Sea. Another sign that the "torch" may not materialize. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: It takes time to cut and paste off of your favorite EPS ensemble member. Wait you don't suppose he might live like right in the middle of that 2'+ area? And I'm sure if he does that's purely coincidence! some things are a lot easier to predict then snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looking further down the line... the EPS is shifting the AK trough/vortex further west into the Bering Sea. Another sign that the "torch" may not materialize. But I was looking forward to a good meltdown over in the panic room. Drat If I had to place money on it we moderate for a week or so after the 14th but nothing torch worthy and by xmas were tracking something again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Wait you don't suppose he might live like right in the middle of that 2'+ area? And I'm sure if he does that's purely coincidence! some things are a lot easier to predict then snow. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: But I was looking forward to a good meltdown over in the panic room. Drat Don't sweat it, they will find something to panic over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wait you don't suppose he might live like right in the middle of that 2'+ area? And I'm sure if he does that's purely coincidence! some things are a lot easier to predict then snow. Euro control is a central VA jack but also 6" up to the MD/PA line. Misses the NE for the most part. Maybe this storm will end up being a JV version of Dec 09... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Another friendly reminder to new folks that although some fun is good, it’s often better to post it in banter. If your posts disappear, take a hint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But I was looking forward to a good meltdown over in the panic room. Drat If I had to place money on it we moderate for a week or so after the 14th but nothing torch worthy and by xmas were tracking something again. It would be kinda funny (and awesome) if this pattern change is the aleutian trough/low setting up and not some ugly AK blue monster. Guidance is warming up to the idea but still plenty of work before the pac looks good on the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 12z EPS Low locations for those interested. Definitely better than 0z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your point is well taken. However the last couple years much of that variability was in a northern stream dominant Nina pattern and guidance was all over the place from range with longwave features and even if a storm would exist at all. At least this time all the guidance had a storm in the same general area and we're debating details. Important details but the models might be more stable at range in this pattern. An stj system traversing the Conus as a cold pattern starts to relax in a nino is a pretty typical way we score. Doesn't mean this won't fail just some reasons to be more hopeful then long range teases during a Nina pattern Never, ever, EVER trusting anything in the LR in a Nina again. Probably the hardest lesson I learned last winter, lol If your theory about the EURO is true...and it were still be showing said solution by say...Sunday or Monday...maybe we can prepare to buckle up? Maybe...lol (I think the EURO needs to take it's crown back...and now is an excellent time to do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro control is a central VA jack but also 6" up to the MD/PA line. Misses the NE for the most part. Maybe this storm will end up being a JV version of Dec 09... We can do better!!! Dreaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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