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NJwx85

11/15-11/16 Coastal Storm Observation Thread

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Was a mix at 5:45 when I went outside to start digging out. Flipped to heavy snow at 6:30 and has not stopped. Ended last night at 8", compacted down to about 6". Fresh inch now on top. 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Pouring sleet here.

Took me an hour and 10 minutes to get from Rockaway boro to MacArthur Blvd.

46 E, 287 N, 202 N all a mess.

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6 minutes ago, KrazyKeyur said:

Took me an hour and 10 minutes to get from Rockaway boro to MacArthur Blvd.

46 E, 287 N, 202 N all a mess.

Great. I'm heading from Tempe Wick to 202N shortly. 

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Quick burst of heavy sleet followed by about 20 minutes of heavy snow with another quick burst of sleet as it wrapped up and now the sun is coming out and the wind is up. That was a fun storm to watch, glad I didn't have any reason to be out in it after the first hour or so, sounds like it was a mess out there.

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 Hi all,
Figured id start of my first post here, hopefully thats ok, as I just got into work. ( I work across the street from KISP)  
I've been a weather enthusiast most of my life and fascinated as most of you are by extreme events. As I get older I find it even more interesting that as technology gets more advanced for weather forecasting somehow mother nature still manages to pull tricks. Even though there was some models that picked up this potential early, its still hard to believe what kind of outcome we actually had from it.   This was one of the most impactful storms ive seen in a while. about 2 hours from ISP back to patchogue in some horrific road conditions and I have a well equipped 4wd vehicle. 

at about 9pm last night there was about 4.5 inches of ice/slush/snow on my deck in Patchogue with a mix coming down
Currently breezy rainy and raw over at ISP 

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NJ blew this one. Phil Murphy (gov) was blasted and NWS messed it up. Not good to lose confidence with a storm on Nov 15th with a bad winter projected. It took people 5-7 hours to go normally 30-45 min commutes. Highways and trains almost shut down to nothing.

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The new rule of 2010's snowfall forecasting is the model showing the heaviest snow potential like the NAM is usually correct. 

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I blame TV and Radio meteorologists because they kept insisting that it was going to all changeover to plain rain even as the guidance kept coming in colder and colder. Even if you thought it was going to change to rain, it's been evident for days that it was going to come in hot and heavy for at least a few hours and during the evening rush to further complicate things. 

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, some recent major busts have made a lot of tv and radio mets gun shy. 

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32 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

NJ blew this one. Phil Murphy (gov) was blasted and NWS messed it up. Not good to lose confidence with a storm on Nov 15th with a bad winter projected. It took people 5-7 hours to go normally 30-45 min commutes. Highways and trains almost shut down to nothing.

Yea, blame it on the governor that an unexpected snowstorm hit during rush hour with 2" an hour rates, right as everyone hit the roads. 

I guess the elected officials should have made their own forecasts, independent of literally everyone else, somehow knew that the storm would be much worse than expected, and deployed the DOT well ahead of time. 

Pretty logical.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I blame TV and Radio meteorologists because they kept insisting that it was going to all changeover to plain rain even as the guidance kept coming in colder and colder. Even if you thought it was going to change to rain, it's been evident for days that it was going to come in hot and heavy for at least a few hours and during the evening rush to further complicate things. 

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, some recent major busts have made a lot of tv and radio mets gun shy. 

Dude, while it was dumping snow, with 2" on the ground, NWS still didnt have even an advisory out here, just a SPS, are you kidding me??? LIE had 2-3" on it, that never happens. Yet, no advisory until its almost over. When the WWA went up the city and Nassau, but not suffolk, that was inexcusable. 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yea, blame it on the governor that an unexpected snowstorm hit during rush hour with 2" an hour rates, right as everyone hit the roads. 

I guess the elected officials should have made their own forecasts, independent of literally everyone else, somehow knew that the storm would be much worse than expected, and deployed the DOT well ahead of time. 

Pretty logical.

It's not his fault but at the same time they should have been better prepared. Normally you see a parade of snowplows and sanders lined up for an inch of snow. Yesterday I hardly saw any. It reminded me of driving through that blizzard back in late March in SW VA.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's not his fault but at the same time they should have been better prepared. Normally you see a parade of snowplows and sanders lined up for an inch of snow. Yesterday I hardly saw any. It reminded me of driving through that blizzard back in April in SW VA.

at 2pm the LIE was being sanded and salted, there was bare pavement. When the wall of snow hit, the sand and salt didnt matter at all. And there were plenty of plows out, just snowed too hard and traffic was too bad.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Dude, while it was dumping snow, with 2" on the ground, NWS still didnt have even an advisory out here, just a SPS, are you kidding me??? LIE had 2-3" on it, that never happens. Yet, no advisory until its almost over. When the WWA went up the city and Nassau, but not suffolk, that was inexcusable. 

I don't know why they didn't issue an advisory but I'm not going to sit here and bash the NWS. Most of the general public doesn't use them as a source for getting a forecast anyway, they turn on the local channels or listen to the radio. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

at 2pm the LIE was being sanded and salted, there was bare pavement. When the wall of snow hit, the sand and salt didnt matter at all. And there were plenty of plows out, just snowed too hard and traffic was too bad.

Cannot speak for Long Island but out here there were no sanders and hardly any plows. I get not being able to keep up with the 2" per hour rates but normally during big storms you see the army of plows on the highways. By the time they were mobilized yesterday it was too late. NO EXCUSE.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't know why they didn't issue an advisory but I'm not going to sit here and bash the NWS. Most of the general public doesn't use them as a source for getting a forecast anyway, they turn on the local channels or listen to the radio. 

When there is 3" of snow on the ground outside of Upton (they got 4.6") and the forecast is still less than an inch, you can get bashed. All needed to do was walk outside FFS. Thats inexcusable. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

When there is 3" of snow on the ground outside of Upton (they got 4.6") and the forecast is still less than an inch, you can get bashed. All needed to do was walk outside FFS. Thats inexcusable. 

The whole thing was just so messed up. I really wonder what guidance they were looking at that still pointed towards a quick flip to rain. Even if you didn't want to believe the colder models anyone could have looked at the dew points and come to the same conclusion. 

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea, blame it on the governor that an unexpected snowstorm hit during rush hour with 2" an hour rates, right as everyone hit the roads. 

I guess the elected officials should have made their own forecasts, independent of literally everyone else, somehow knew that the storm would be much worse than expected, and deployed the DOT well ahead of time. 

Pretty logical.

I disagree; and this goes for each and every elected official that continually screw it up every storm. They're usually too busy pontificating about things that they don't have control over, while ignoring things they do, such as being over-prepared for a storm. And it seems like they always use the NWS or TV Mets as a punching bag/excuse when things go awry or not their way. I *think* it was Bill deBlasio who threw the NWS under the bus a few years back when a storm came in in the morning hours and snarled school buses? And to be equal opportunity, Chris Christie flubbed his first one on Boxing Day 2010, which Michael Bloomberg did as well. 

Trying to take emotion out of it, current elected officials were surprised, but also under-prepared. I didn't see pre-treated roads yesterday nearly to the extent I have in the past; I drive 46 every day.

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