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NJwx85

11/15-11/16 Coastal Storm Observation Thread

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Took my brother in law 6 1/2 hours yesterday to make it from Newark to Wanaque. Normally a trip that takes about 35-40 minutes. Nearly 4 hours of that time was spent just trying to make it out of Newark. 

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4 minutes ago, North and West said:

I disagree; and this goes for each and every elected official that continually screw it up every storm. They're usually too busy pontificating about things that they don't have control over, while ignoring things they do, such as being over-prepared for a storm. And it seems like the always use the NWS or TV Mets as a punching bag/excuse when things go awry. I *think* it was Bill deBlasio who threw the NWS under the bus a few years back when a storm came in in the morning hours and snarled school buses? And to be equal opportunity, Chris Christie flubbed his first one on Boxing Day 2010, which Michael Bloomberg did as well. 

Trying to take emotion out of it, current elected officials were surprised, but also under-prepared. I didn't see pre-treated roads yesterday nearly to the extent I have in the past; I drive 46 every day.

When the forecast calls for literally all rain out here, the officials are supposed to have plows on the road? They actually did a great job, as at 2 pm all the way out in suffolk they were salting and sanding. 2" an hour rates at the height of rush hour were the problem. '

Again, a forecast calling for all rain, supposed to have an army of plows on the road. Come on.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

When the forecast calls for literally all rain out here, the officials are supposed to have plows on the road? They actually did a great job, as at 2 pm all the way out in suffolk they were salting and sanding. 2" an hour rates at the height of rush hour were the problem. '

Again, a forecast calling for all rain, supposed to have an army of plows on the road. Come on.

Seems that Long Island was better prepared than Jersey. The forecast out here was never for mostly rain and yet they still blew it big time. 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

When the forecast calls for literally all rain out here, the officials are supposed to have plows on the road? They actually did a great job, as at 2 pm all the way out in suffolk they were salting and sanding. 2" an hour rates at the height of rush hour were the problem. '

Again, a forecast calling for all rain, supposed to have an army of plows on the road. Come on.

Ah - I live in Morris County. The forecast was calling for accumulating snow here for a while; NJ flubbed this one.

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For the city itself, the NWS WWA was issued just about the time the snow started to fall (checked my phone - alert came at 12:42), but by that point, people had commuted into the city with expectation of not terrible commute home, so their fate was sealed. Even sounding the alarm and going straight to a WSW for NYC (which would have verified, of course) would have done nothing at that point. For a storm that's going to hit the afternoon rush hard you have to sound the alarm the night before so people change their plans.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Seems that Long Island was better prepared than Jersey. The forecast out here was never for mostly rain and yet they still blew it big time. 

In the past people always make fun of how over hyped the snow situation tends to be, but what yesterday showed is that over hype is not necessarily a bad thing. 

Better be safe than sorry. IMO NJ preparations were much worse than elsewhere. I spoke to many people and they all said the roads were not pre-treated and plows were non-existent.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Seems that Long Island was better prepared than Jersey. The forecast out here was never for mostly rain and yet they still blew it big time. 

 

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

Ah - I live in Morris County. The forecast was calling for accumulating snow here for a while; NJ flubbed this one.

That's a different story then. At the least, there should have been early dismissals from school, so the kids werent on the road during the height of rush hour. That falls on local school officials. The real issue is that everyone hit the road at the same time. The downed trees blocking roads didnt help...something you dont usually see

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5 minutes ago, hooralph said:

For the city itself, the NWS WWA was issued just about the time the snow started to fall (checked my phone - alert came at 12:42), but by that point, people had commuted into the city with expectation of not terrible commute home, so their fate was sealed. Even sounding the alarm and going straight to a WSW for NYC (which would have verified, of course) would have done nothing at that point. For a storm that's going to hit the afternoon rush hard you have to sound the alarm the night before so people change their plans.

 

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

In the past people always make fun of how over hyped the snow situation tends to be, but what yesterday showed is that over hype is not necessarily a bad thing. 

Better be safe than sorry. IMO NJ preparations were much worse than elsewhere. I spoke to many people and they all said the roads were not pre-treated and plows were non-existent.

We also share blame in this. NAM, EURO, SREFS, HRRR were all showing heavy snow for the area, and for some reason, we all threw them out, even seasoned mets. I remember seeing calls for 5-6" out here, and laughing. The NAM nailed this 24 hours before snow started, and we disregarded it to our peril.

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Just now, psv88 said:

 

That's a different story then. At the least, there should have been early dismissals from school, so the kids werent on the road during the height of rush hour. That falls on local school officials. The real issue is that everyone hit the road at the same time. The downed trees blocking roads didnt help...something you dont usually see

I think it was many bad factors coming together simultaneously, not least of which was poor preparation. One thing I didn't see on my ride home (which was harrowing), thank goodness, were downed trees. We were at 27-28 degrees most of the night during the heaviest precipitation, which allowed the snow to not cling to everything, unlike March 7, 2018.

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Just now, psv88 said:

 

We also share blame in this. NAM, EURO, SREFS, HRRR were all showing heavy snow for the area, and for some reason, we all threw them out, even seasoned mets. I remember seeing calls for 5-6" out here, and laughing. The NAM nailed this 24 hours before snow started, and we disregarded it to our peril.

I'm not a pro by any stretch, but doesn't it seem like the NAM has been firing on all cylinders the past few years? Or is it just recency bias?

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3 minutes ago, North and West said:

I think it was many bad factors coming together simultaneously, not least of which was poor preparation. One thing I didn't see on my ride home (which was harrowing), thank goodness, were downed trees. We were at 27-28 degrees most of the night during the heaviest precipitation, which allowed the snow to not cling to everything, unlike March 7, 2018.

I remember that. I was outside shoveling out the chicken coop, I love the eerie quiet in the snow, and you could hear branches snapping in the woods behind me. I got 13 inches in that one

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

 

We also share blame in this. NAM, EURO, SREFS, HRRR were all showing heavy snow for the area, and for some reason, we all threw them out, even seasoned mets. I remember seeing calls for 5-6" out here, and laughing. The NAM nailed this 24 hours before snow started, and we disregarded it to our peril.

NAM is a broken clock but it does do very well in CAD situations when temps mean everything. 

Euro was also hinting at a much snowier solution than forecast.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

NAM is a broken clock but it does do very well in CAD situations when temps mean everything. 

Euro was also hinting at a much snowier solution than forecast.

The HRRR showed very snowy solutions all morning. SREFS were very bullish. I busted BIG TIME on this one. Embarrassing, since i told people we werent getting anything.

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Just now, CarLover014 said:

I remember that. I was outside shoveling out the chicken coop, I love the eerie quiet in the snow, and you could hear branches snapping in the woods behind me. I got 13 inches in that one

Yea... the trees breaking was like that up here in October 2011. We were crushed in March here with 20" or so and trees branches were down all over.

I would like to avoid a repeat of last night if I can help it.

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3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Yea... the trees breaking was like that up here in October 2011. We were crushed in March here with 20" or so and trees branches were down all over.

I would like to avoid a repeat of last night if I can help it.

Trees and branches down all over the place, no bueno. Wild night, but yea, i did not enjoy the commute last night, too much

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1 minute ago, North and West said:

Yea... the trees breaking was like that up here in October 2011. We were crushed in March here with 20" or so and trees branches were down all over.

I would like to avoid a repeat of last night if I can help it.

That wind had me most concerned. Especially given that I got over 1.5 inches with 50+ gusts. It kept me up all night. Luckily all that fell were about 85% of the leaves

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Just now, psv88 said:

Trees and branches down all over the place, no bueno. Wild night, but yea, i did not enjoy the commute last night, too much

Craziest thing I saw this morning were abandoned cars. I've never seen that here before.

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You just know for the next system, no matter how minor it is, that officials will overcompensate and probably waste a lot of resources for no reason. 

It happens every time.

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See, my problem is that for my neck of the woods, everyone knew that we would be getting at least 3-5 inches.  However, the preparation didn't reflect that at all.  Even during the early afternoon before the heaviest stuff kicked in, local roads were atrocious.  Not to mention it then snowed for hours on end without any snow removal efforts whatsoever.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

You just know for the next system, no matter how minor it is, that officials will overcompensate and probably waste a lot of resources for no reason. 

It happens every time.

Bingo. Storms have ruined many an elected official's career.

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13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

 

We also share blame in this. NAM, EURO, SREFS, HRRR were all showing heavy snow for the area, and for some reason, we all threw them out, even seasoned mets. I remember seeing calls for 5-6" out here, and laughing. The NAM nailed this 24 hours before snow started, and we disregarded it to our peril.

Actually we don't share the blame because none of us (red taggers aside) are responsible for providing forecasts to the general public. 

You could tell just by looking at the radar yesterday morning what was going to happen. 

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Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation?

Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. 

But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow.

Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

See, my problem is that for my neck of the woods, everyone knew that we would be getting at least 3-5 inches.  However, the preparation didn't reflect that at all.  Even during the early afternoon before the heaviest stuff kicked in, local roads were atrocious.  Not to mention it then snowed for hours on end without any snow removal efforts whatsoever.

That's more of what I was getting at.

If you live out on Long Island where it looked to be mostly rain and got caught with your pants down that is more excusable than what happened yesterday over Central and Northern NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. 

 

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation?

Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. 

But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow.

Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.

 

 

Sorry but there was no excuse for not having plows and sanders ready in places that were forecasted to get several inches of snow before any changeover. 

If anything things actually turned out a bit better by staying snow longer because the freezing rain would have made things even worse than they already were. 

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25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Seems that Long Island was better prepared than Jersey. The forecast out here was never for mostly rain and yet they still blew it big time. 

People in PA are furious at PennDOT as well. The Lehigh Valley in particular was a disaster area, which is inexcusable since the forecasts there always called for mostly ice and snow.

 

https://www.mcall.com/news/weather/mc-nws-winter-weather-advisory-lehigh-valley-snow-20181115-story.html

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Sorry but there was no excuse for not having plows and sanders ready in places that were forecasted to get several inches of snow before any changeover. 

If anything things actually turned out a bit better by staying snow longer because the freezing rain would have made things even worse than they already were. 

Temperatures were pretty marginal for freezing rain in the City and right near the Coast. You don't get much accretion in urban areas with 30-32F ZR. 

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6 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation?

Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. 

But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow.

Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.

 

 

The issue is preparedness. Hope for best, prepare for the worst.

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Just now, nzucker said:

Temperatures were pretty marginal for freezing rain in the City and right near the Coast. You don't get much accretion in urban areas with 30-32F ZR. 

Again, that excuse might work for places like NYC. It doesn't work out here.

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On the Lirr right now and the difference in remaining snow between my house and Wantagh and western queens is as extreme as you will ever see. Literally no snow left at my house and full snow cover in western queens. There’s that ocean effect just happened later then expected 

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