CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Next week doesn’t look great in SNE. Cuts right over us. The mtns may do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Cutter on 12/3? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 You guys remember when he melted like this last year and deep winter hit? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Who’s melting? Nao folds like the Yankees in the post season. I’m not sure December starts with a bang, but should step down heading through first week as colder weather moves east. I still think December should be at least decent. May see some east based -nao action after first week if eps is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah we may turn snowy early next week Sure, In N Maine which is good imo. But not looking to good at the moment here..but we won’t lock anything in just yet...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 The 6z GFS is loads of potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: The 6z GFS is loads of potential. The GFS is famous for dropping loads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Weird evolution next week on 6z GFS with coastal low and inverted trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I can take the cutters. I can't take the 6" 3 miles inland from my house while Logan drunk measures trace. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 GFS does show how things could break colder...all depends on how the ATL blocking is handled. GGEM was on the colder side as well but not like the GFS. Euro was def the most "cutterish" looking....or inland runner to be a bit more precise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: I can take the cutters. I can't take the 6" 3 miles inland from my house while Logan drunk measures trace. Speaking of that, that little burst late yesterday is still on grass and roofs of my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Speaking of that, that little burst late yesterday is still on grass and roofs of my hood. Driving to Western CT the minute I can escape work. Hoping I can accumulate some snowfall on the way out there. Looks like arctic blast with snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: Weird evolution next week on 6z GFS with coastal low and inverted trough... Yeah I'll put that in the not likely camp. I'm not sure a d7 inverted trough has ever verified. It'll probably end up a more consolidated system...whether that's a cutter or offshore, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: The GFS is famous for dropping loads. Stink loaf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 You could always get a SWFE type event too. Anyways things still look fine to me. The -NAO didn’t have a shelf life anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 I’ll take a good pacific pattern over the NAO any day... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2018 Author Share Posted November 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll take a good pacific pattern over the NAO any day... Agree. Like it or not the pacific drives the bus. The NAO will go negative again at which time we flip the keys over to Kevin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 NAO is nice to have, But not an absolute necessity up here anyways, One could argue that down in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: NAO is nice to have, But not an absolute necessity up here anyways, One could argue that down in the MA. My very best winters have been Pacific driven, save 1995-1996...which was actually both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll take a good pacific pattern over the NAO any day... Think of the NAO as insurance.....it provides greater margin for error. You don't want to have to rely on it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My very best winters have been Pacific driven, save 1995-1996...which was actually both. Yup, Pac drives the bus, NAO sits behind the bus driver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Just be careful about expecting a banner December.....I think it may end up closer to normal....but we'll see. I thought it would be like 2014 a month or two ago, but it will be better than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Cutter on 12/3? How quickly things change, could put a huge cap on any projected snowy start to December. But to be fair, December was never exactly stellar in El Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Big 4 in SNE through 11/20 BOS: -0.3 ORH: -3.1 BDL: -2.5 PVD: -1.3 Those are gonna get slammed the next 3 days. If the forecast through Saturday doesn't drastically change, I have ORH down to roughly 36.2F for November with 6 days remaining. Their coldest November on record going back to 1892 is 34.4F in 1967....so depending on how cold early next week shakes out and they don't get warm sectored in any of those storms...it could start to get interesting. It's a long shot, but either way it will end up high on the list. They need to get to 35.3F for top 5 coldest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Big 4 in SNE through 11/20 BOS: -0.3 ORH: -3.1 BDL: -2.5 PVD: -1.3 Those are gonna get slammed the next 3 days. If the forecast through Saturday doesn't drastically change, I have ORH down to roughly 36.2F for November with 6 days remaining. Their coldest November on record going back to 1892 is 34.4F in 1967....so depending on how cold early next week shakes out and they don't get warm sectored in any of those storms...it could start to get interesting. It's a long shot, but either way it will end up high on the list. They need to get to 35.3F for top 5 coldest. I'll bet the coldest el nino November seasons went on to be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Big 4 in SNE through 11/20 BOS: -0.3 ORH: -3.1 BDL: -2.5 PVD: -1.3 Those are gonna get slammed the next 3 days. If the forecast through Saturday doesn't drastically change, I have ORH down to roughly 36.2F for November with 6 days remaining. Their coldest November on record going back to 1892 is 34.4F in 1967....so depending on how cold early next week shakes out and they don't get warm sectored in any of those storms...it could start to get interesting. It's a long shot, but either way it will end up high on the list. They need to get to 35.3F for top 5 coldest. CON is 36.0F for a -4.1 through 11/20. Making top 10 will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: CON is 36.0F for a -4.1 through 11/20. Making top 10 will be tough. 1873 was brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 Strange. The CON F6 and NOWdata suggests the Novie mean is 40.1F, but this suggests it is 38.3F. 1971-2000 was 37.6F so I assume the 38.3F is correct. So make that departure only -2.3F instead of -4.1F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, mreaves said: 1873 was brutal Ginxy froze thy nickers on his first annual ski trip that March! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2018 Share Posted November 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Think of the NAO as insurance.....it provides greater margin for error. You don't want to have to rely on it. Nao can help in December when storms tried to ride up the coast. That’s the one nice thing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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