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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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18 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Nam sticking with a foot lol

TT is a hot mess when it comes to mixed precip types and snow totals. If this system gives Newark a foot of snow I'll ride up to Apple Valley on my Unicorn and buy you dinner. :arrowhead:

(I secretly hope its right!)

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21 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

TT is a hot mess when it comes to mixed precip types and snow totals. If this system gives Newark a foot of snow I'll ride up to Apple Valley on my Unicorn and buy you dinner. :arrowhead:

(I secretly hope its right!)

Well it has 3k NAM with what looks like up to 3" an hour rates. Wouldn't take much at that pace to get a lot of snow. Patiently watching the radar. 

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I'm blown away that no WSWs have been put up. The fact that some areas could see 3" an hour rates with tomorrow being a weekday, and the impact that would have is crazy to me that they'd all stick with an advisory

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13 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

I'm blown away that no WSWs have been put up. The fact that some areas could see 3" an hour rates with tomorrow being a weekday, and the impact that would have is crazy to me that they'd all stick with an advisory

ILN have updated their snow fall maps many many times today, a hint that they may be a bit gun-shy in issuing anything more than an advisory at the moment. To that point, the setup is incredibly tricky.

 

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In terms of warnings it is debatable.  There is no where near the required 80% confidence in 6”+ occurring in any given spot (even if it’s possible, it’s not that confident)...but based on impacts an argument could be made that several counties near I-70 particularly near/E/NE of Franklin could be upgraded on an impact based basis.  Even that is a little flimsy as confidence still isn’t great, though at this point most signs are pointing towards that area getting hit reasonably hard for a few hours. 

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12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

In terms of warnings it is debatable.  There is no where near the required 80% confidence in 6”+ occurring in any given spot (even if it’s possible, it’s not that confident)...but based on impacts an argument could be made that several counties near I-70 particularly near/E/NE of Franklin could be upgraded on an impact based basis.  Even that is a little flimsy as confidence still isn’t great, though at this point most signs are pointing towards that area getting hit reasonably hard for a few hours. 

Yea, the criteria is what it is, but I'd have to think NWS can also issue one if the impact will be great enough. I know I'll be up all night to see what happens.

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12 minutes ago, Buckeye1994 said:

Very heavy snow for over an hour now here just south of Dayton, picked up well over an inch. Still all snow, can’t hear any ice pellets mix in yet 

Ditto, same here on the SE side of Dayton, some of the heaviest snow of the winter right now, very heavy flakes coming down in chunks, you can tell tho the end is near!

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Dayton airport (which is N of downtown) reported 1" of snow last hour.

Per the correlation coefficient (CC), the heavier precip moving into Cincinnati is attempting to flip things back for snow.  For Cincinnati not sure if this ends up doing anything, but farther north along southern cutoff it might make a difference and was needed to get the southern edge of the heavier snow to work out.   The precip moving WSW-ENE out of southern IN is convective and has some lightning, and is what would bring the heaviest rates to OH.  I think Columbus hangs on long enough to see snow during this, but it's still close...much more certain a little north. 

A narrow portion of southern OH may do well with freezing rain as some stations have already gone to it south of route 50 and still have modest dry air advecting in...could see some spots crack 0.10" ice accumulation. 

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54 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Dayton airport (which is N of downtown) reported 1" of snow last hour.

Per the correlation coefficient (CC), the heavier precip moving into Cincinnati is attempting to flip things back for snow.  For Cincinnati not sure if this ends up doing anything, but farther north along southern cutoff it might make a difference and was needed to get the southern edge of the heavier snow to work out.   The precip moving WSW-ENE out of southern IN is convective and has some lightning, and is what would bring the heaviest rates to OH.  I think Columbus hangs on long enough to see snow during this, but it's still close...much more certain a little north. 

A narrow portion of southern OH may do well with freezing rain as some stations have already gone to it south of route 50 and still have modest dry air advecting in...could see some spots crack 0.10" ice accumulation. 

Thunder and lightning here in SE Indiana rn. Rain/ 33°..

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Just now, chuckster2012 said:

Thunder and lightning here in SE Indiana rn. Rain/ 33°..

Yeah, a good chunk has gotten into SW OH too the last half hour or so.  The CC line on radar is trying to fight back near Dayton and Columbus, so we'll see if the dynamic cooling can happen.  Mixing did get rather far north quickly with much of Columbus currently mixing... someone is going to get drilled and it'd be nice if it can be a majority of our central Ohio posters in this thread and not just the northern folks. 

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The convection is pushing the mixing line back south...Dayton is snowing again (KDAY reporting thunder snow!) and the Columbus airports are starting to flip again too...if you're struggling and along/north of 70 farther east should improve when the convection moves east. 

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16 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The convection is pushing the mixing line back south...Dayton is snowing again (KDAY reporting thunder snow!) and the Columbus airports are starting to flip again too...if you're struggling and along/north of 70 farther east should improve when the convection moves east. 

I can verify the thundersnow about 30 minutes ago.

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2 in the last hour? Not a chance. I am in DAY right now and it has been heavy sleet for a hour now. You don't count sleet as snow. Whoever is working there should be fired.

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Just now, Angrysummons said:

2 in the last hour? Not a chance. I am in DAY right now and it has been heavy sleet for a hour now. You don't count sleet as snow. Whoever is working there should be fired.

You must be south of the airport.  And yes, you count sleet as snow. 

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Just now, Angrysummons said:

2 in the last hour? Not a chance. I am in DAY right now and it has been heavy sleet for a hour now. You don't count sleet as snow. Whoever is working there should be fired.

I actually believe that report. Been getting huge snowflakes at a heavy rate here for at least the last 30 minutes.

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Just now, snowlover2 said:

I actually believe that report. Been getting huge snowflakes at a heavy rate here for at least the last 30 minutes.

Huge flakes? lol.

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Just now, Angrysummons said:

Nope, just to the north. Poor management.

Maybe you're just north of Wright Pat.  I've been checking ODOT cams it is snowing in/north of downtown Dayton.  The CC line on radar is pretty accurate based on where you can see snow flakes on cameras. 

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