• Member Statistics

    15,884
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    bvmcode
    Newest Member
    bvmcode
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, vespasian70 said:

Over performer indeed! Ended up with 7" here.

Here's a bit of my morning commute.

 

 

20190201_073710.jpg

More times then not, clippers do really well in central Ohio. That’s one thing we got going for us in “the valley”

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My favorite type of snow by far, other than a big dog obviously. No over hyping and most people probably woke up surprised this morning. The Bluebirds in my backyard love it too!

IMG_20190201_083033.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, pondo1000 said:

3 probably. LOL

In fairness, CMH got hit by some dry slots and that part of the city was the low end on the scale. Probably cost a inch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Alright Buckeyes/ Hoosiers and those close by....after five days of inactivity in this forum....time to wake up and smell the snow again.....digital snow that is:

 fv3p_asnow_us_31.png

Meanwhile, the GFS has maybe an inch in the next 10 days.  The main difference is a storm showing up for the 12-14th.  The GFS takes the main low into northern Michigan while the FV3 has it in north central North Carolina.  Only a small difference. :lightning: I guess the bright side is that both at least have some kind of storm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Alright Buckeyes/ Hoosiers and those close by....after five days of inactivity in this forum....time to wake up and smell the snow again.....digital snow that is:

 fv3p_asnow_us_31.png

Mods are all over the place days 4 -7. They can't even agree on what day has a storm much less what the track and strength is.   I was surprised,to see the euro go warmer and more in the cutter direction since, it's the quickest to get the mjo into 8.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The take away here as we transition into a favorable MJO postilion is the storm track will be favorable for many in the sub.  With the Cold being a big part of Phase 8, i'd bet on the suppressed storm track vs. a wild cutter IMHO.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

The take away here as we transition into a favorable MJO postilion is the storm track will be favorable for many in the sub.  With the Cold being a big part of Phase 8, i'd bet on the suppressed storm track vs. a wild cutter IMHO.  

I doubt it. The general RNA pattern and blocking alignment molds how the MJO responds. So it goes into phase 8? What we are seeing is weakness of MJO theory. Much like the theory that low solar minimum means -NAO has been crushed as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

I doubt it. The general RNA pattern and blocking alignment molds how the MJO responds. So it goes into phase 8? What we are seeing is weakness of MJO theory. Much like the theory that low solar minimum means -NAO has been crushed as well.

Hate to agree w/ you, but the MJO is not driving the train this winter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Hate to agree w/ you, but the MJO is not driving the train this winter. 

I don't necessarily agree.  I guess we'll have a good test coming up when the mjo starts taking the cold phases tour late next week.   We'll see what real weather is doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I don't necessarily agree.  I guess we'll have a good test coming up when the mjo starts taking the cold phases tour late next week.   We'll see what real weather is doing.

Yeah, time will tell. Hope it works out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to disagree that the MJO hasn’t mattered this winter.  There have been two relatively quick passes through the “cold phases” of the MJO in the last 3 months...one from the last few days of Nov and through the first week of Dec, and another between Jan 5-12.  Both were accompanied by cold during or shortly after.  Meanwhile, we’ve had two slower and higher amplitude passes through the “warm phases”...one mid Dec through the first few days of Jan, and then another mid Jan through now.   We’ve (not uncoincidentally) seen occasional warm shots in both periods.  Strong phase 4-6 MJO is not what one would expect in a Modoki El Niño and likely helps explain the I-95 fail so far.  If we get a slow and fairly strong phase 8-1-2 pass over the next few weeks it will shake up the pattern, and would be easily a more favorable tropical forcing look than we’ve had the majority of the winter.  

Whether that results in legit snow for Ohio next week I’m not sure on (suspect it ends up being a modest event Sunday then maybe some mixed crap Tuesday) but it would at least keep the door open for another few weeks.  The subtropical jet looks absolutely super charged later Feb and early March so if we can settle into a relatively cold pattern there will be chances. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snowing very heavy here in Hancock. I can't hardly see the house down the street from me. Luckily, I went in earlier to work so I could get the hell out of there before the storm hit. Every nut and their uncle is in town for Tech winter carnival so there is a lot more traffic and more people to get me in a jam. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, wishforsnow said:

Snowing very heavy here in Hancock. I can't hardly see the house down the street from me. Luckily, I went in earlier to work so I could get the hell out of there before the storm hit. Every nut and their uncle is in town for Tech winter carnival so there is a lot more traffic and more people to get me in a jam. 

Hancock where?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

February looking to go up in flames. Such a disappointment. Can’t wait for a miserable March. Why do -NAO always seem to pop when it doesn’t matter? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

February looking to go up in flames. Such a disappointment. Can’t wait for a miserable March. Why do -NAO always seem to pop when it doesn’t matter? 

yea just horrible.    Low pressure cuts for Michigan,   than high pressure follows,  than low pressure attacks the departing high and heads to Michigan again.... wash, rinse, repeat.

Just bring me a torch....Feb, March 2012 sounds awesome right now.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yea just horrible.    Low pressure cuts for Michigan,   than high pressure follows,  than low pressure attacks the departing high and heads to Michigan again.... wash, rinse, repeat.

Just bring me a torch....Feb, March 2012 sounds awesome right now.  

This will go down as one of the epic fails in winter outlook forecasts for sure for many.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bring on severe season... but with that being said...I am afraid flooding may be part of that this spring!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

This will go down as one of the epic fails in winter outlook forecasts for sure for many.

:facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, buckeye said:

:facepalm: gfs has 4 cutters over the next 2 weeks.   That brings us to Feb 24th.   Yes, this may be the worst collective winter forecasting failure that I can recall. 

It's like JB became a virus and it went epidemic in the meterology world.   The only thing he has going for him is that this time he's not alone in failure.  Don S., DT, HM, and a plethra of knowlegable mets on this site all crashed and burned.   Per usual JB refuses to call it what it is and tries to piece together some kind of claim that his forecast was on target.  It's reminiscent of his infamous "I nailed the pattern at 500mb", excuse.    It's like watching someone try to build a tower out of jello while they convince you to keep watching just a little bit longer because it's almost there.   

He had Jan 20th thru Feb 15th as the pinnacle of winter's brutality, of course that was after the first half of January failed.  When it became apparent that the PV visit was only going to be a glancing blow and mostly to our friends from Chicago on north, he immediately claimed that a rebound to warm for a few days was perfectly normal and expected, (even though he never said that beforehand).   Now he has Feb 15th thru March 15th as his new target period for epic winter.   That is now crumbling apart and frankly at this point I find it humorous...   

So why do you read him Buckeye?   Because he's a hypster which leads to one of two outcomes.  Either he's right and we snow....or he's wrong and turns into the clown building a tower out of jello.   Either way it's entertainment :devilsmiley:

It is humurous and very entertaining. This one stings though b/c of so many calling for a great winter like you said.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.