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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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Talk about me be negative. I am just going to enjoy the thaw and the fact the colder, cross polar flow is gone. That much has been verified. After that looks more complex than we have had lately in terms of the general 500mb pattern. Much more pacific influence means some crazy ups and downs in the 120-240 range.

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1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I haven't seen one model show what you're suggesting.  I understand being frustrated, just don't let it cloud your judgement.

The afternoon zones were actually warmed up a bit, so I'm really pretty close on the lows.  The high on Wednesday is based off the midnight high, which again, is the only thing that's going into the records. Sure the afternoon may be a little colder than that, but without any snow cover, it's hard to imagine that things will end up colder than any of these numbers, even with the very low 850s.

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33 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Talk about me be negative. I am just going to enjoy the thaw and the fact the colder, cross polar flow is gone. That much has been verified. After that looks more complex than we have had lately in terms of the general 500mb pattern. Much more pacific influence means some crazy ups and downs in the 120-240 range.

So you're saying everyone can look forward to a whole new set of ways things can go wrong.  Exciting times ahead B)

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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Snow in front of the thaw

Rain in front of the freeze

It's how we roll

And this will be the one that over performs just to be melted away in the days afterwards 

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Very heavy snow squall just moved through southwestern Montgomery County ahead of the arctic front, dropped a quick 0.5, wind blowing it all around. 

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35 minutes ago, Buckeye1994 said:

Very heavy snow squall just moved through southwestern Montgomery County ahead of the arctic front, dropped a quick 0.5, wind blowing it all around. 

HRRR is picking up on the squall line. Curious to see how much it will be here.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_3.png

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So I left my driveway and it was 0 according to my truck.  When I got to my office it was -3.   What's impressive is it's actually windy out.   Usually you get these cold shots like this and it's under strong HP that just settles in and everything is still.   

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Just now, vespasian70 said:

Don't recall seeing a snow squall warning from ILN before.

 

snow squall warning.JPG

Yep, it was one of the new winter items they announce recently.  I think the big wrecks on I-75 from squalls last winter got them thinking about it.

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1 minute ago, HighTechEE said:

Yep, it was one of the new winter items they announce recently.  I think the big wrecks on I-75 from squalls last winter got them thinking about it.

Ah, that explains it. I wonder if these are hoisted based exclusively on radar? I'm pretty much out of range for ILN, snowing pretty good here but nothing on radar.

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I was just about to go out and remove the snow off of my car and I opened the front door and a particularly howling blast of wind did it for me-took nearly all of the snow right off of it. Damn it is brutal out.

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Today's official high will be 14.  I was too cold.  It's a shame the afternoon temperature won't go into the records. Now let's see how cold it gets tonight.

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34 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Today's official high will be 14.  I was too cold.  It's a shame the afternoon temperature won't go into the records. Now let's see how cold it gets tonight.

Temp continues to drop.  I now have -6 as the sky clears up with bright sunshine.    If this drop continues through the afternoon, we would be comparable to the 94 outbreak where afternoon temps were between -6 and -8.

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Just now, buckeye said:

Temp continues to drop.  I now have -6 as the sky clears up with bright sunshine.    If this drop continues through the afternoon, we would be comparable to the 94 outbreak where afternoon temps were between -6 and -8.

With a real feel of -37. Ouch!

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Just now, pondo1000 said:

With a real feel of -37. Ouch!

Kind of interesting because I don't recall ILN forecasting below zero temps through the afternoon.   If that's the case, tonights low might beat forecasts.   

All of this with just a dusting of snow...just imagine if we had a deep snowcover....  we'd be sitting double digits below zero at noon :yikes:

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gfs says mid 50s-60 mon - wed.

Unreal.   After our quickly-doomed snowfall on thursday night.... we have 3 rainstorms in a row lined up to bat.    Looks like rain will continue to rule our weather world as we roll into and through 2019, despite the pattern or time of year.

Looks like after our 3 rainstorms, the next 2 storms go under us and are snowstorms for TN into the Carolinas  :lol:

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