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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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4 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Why do these model forecast these outrageous snow amounts anymore? Buckeye, do you have that 25" of snow otg yet?

no, but in fairness euro still has til monday to verify :P

In the meantime, that monday clipper jumped pretty far north on the modeling overnight :thumbsdown:

Still time to change, especially considering there are two smaller back to back systems in front of it.   

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gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper.   A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states.  Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies.   That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels.   I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass....  but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking.:weenie:

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11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

gfs and gem still north with the mon clipper.   A lot depends on the orientation and how the PV rotates as the storm rides around the edge out of the north central states.  Still a lot could change in 5 days, and the old 'bullseye' rule applies.   That's one hell of a brutal air mass on it's heels.   I'm having a hard time believing it's going to cut up towards north east OH with that air mass....  but of course that's probably the weenie in me talking.:weenie:

I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye 5 or 6 days out. The track will move ... no place for it to go but south. :weenie:

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Any model that shows that kind of "cold air" on a decaying ssw is a idiot. But that is the way the ops work nowadays. It will be gone soon enough.

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1 minute ago, Angrysummons said:

Any model that shows that kind of "cold air" on a decaying ssw is a idiot. But that is the way the ops work nowadays. It will be gone soon enough.

so you're not buying next weeks widespread double digit below zero readings across the forum?

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Well it took us all winter to get it.... and in one day our snowpack is all but gone!! :axe::axe:

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1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

The FV3 looks much more realistic with the Monday clipper in terms of track and strength and gives us a decent event.

Euro gives us a couple of inches about an inch tonight?   Also, it give us a few inches wrt Monday's clipper, mostly as a result of a 'wavy' front once the clipper goes north.

Something that could evolve better for us.   Also fwiw, gefs is much further south than the op.  Definitely a 'trackable' event.   Hopefully if we are going to get the brutal cold being advertised, we can get at least a few inches of snowcover down.

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57 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

The FV3 looks much more realistic with the Monday clipper in terms of track and strength and gives us a decent event.

Euro north again 

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1 minute ago, pondo1000 said:

Euro north again 

actually think the evolution is better than 00z.   Has more emphasis on moisture along, behind the front.   That would be like a brief period of rain and mix followed by a nice thump to bring in the arctic air.

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

actually think the evolution is better than 00z.   Has more emphasis on moisture along, behind the front.   That would be like a brief period of rain and mix followed by a nice thump to bring in the arctic air.

Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north?

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2 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north?

I'm ok where we are right now as depicted.  I could see this trend more favorably, not just in terms of the track, but how it all comes together with the potential for something stronger on the font, south of us.   I could be wrong but I don't see this as a straight rain, to backlash flurries event.   

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7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

Yeah, but rather it be south. Someone north of that track is going to get creamed. Pretty strong Low depicted as well which I guess is why it’s so north?

Just typical model overhype. Not like we haven't see these overblown patterns in the 120 hour timeframe. My guess when they figure out the ssw is dying(and interestingly turning into a stratospheric cooling starting around February 1st which will lag to the end of the month in effect). They will start moving the clipper more south and weaker.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

HRRR fairly 'bullish' (relatively speaking) for tonight's changeover.   Shows changeover starting around 10 or 11pm

hrrr.JPG

These never seem to pan out so that would be a nice surprise.

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20 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

HRRR is still playing up tonight's backend snow. Current radar isn't having any of it. We shall see ...

Temps dropping too slow aloft, it seems. 

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10 minutes ago, buckeye said:

GFS did come south a bit from 00z...  but it's still way north of the euro.

Euro really weakened it too as it comes east

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11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Hope the gfs is wrong....that would be a really insulting way to usher in a record cold outbreak. :thumbsdown:

At least it's still 4 or so days out. Lots of time for adjustments. :weenie:

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18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Hope the gfs is wrong....that would be a really insulting way to usher in a record cold outbreak. :thumbsdown:

Would think with the small Saturday clipper some  cold would be in place, but who knows anymore

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FWIW, FV3 still south.

I haven't been checking, is the GFS the only model showing this far north solution? The euro looks like weak sauce and south.

*Edit* 18z NAM looks like the last panel is heading in the right direction for us. Again :weenie:

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