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Solak

Hurricane Michael

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18 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Michael now a Hurricane

Well that escalated quickly...

Was it Maria that had also undergone rapid intensification last year before it slammed Georgia?

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Well that escalated quickly...

Was it Maria that had also undergone rapid intensification last year before it slammed Georgia?

No Maria hit PR and then missed the east coast.

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@Solaktime to change the thread name

 

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Well that escalated quickly...

Was it Maria that had also undergone rapid intensification last year before it slammed Georgia?

Nope, Maria was Caribbean then OTS

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38 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It might have bern Irma.

It was Irma.  Opal in 1995 is the October hurricane that caused tremendous damage to N. GA.  Michael is similar but seems to be tracking a bit farther east or where Opal did. 

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1 hour ago, shaggy said:

This is a much bigger concern for you Florida and Georgia guys but the concern this far north is the wet ground from Florence (even though theres been a lot of drying) could mean any weakened root systems could be in jeopardy if winds get too high. So while we are not expecting nearly the weather y'all could be in for the concern is anything over 50mph in gusts could down already weakened trees here in SC/NC.

This is BAD,, very Bad for  My area( SENC) As @Shaggy & @Downeast mentioned We have Millions  of "weakened" Trees here, STILL lotsa "leaners", and Live Oaks, that are, (I just don't want to think about this). Our Local NWS Has us 4~6 inch rain on TOP of very very SATURATED grounds... 40-60 MPH winds.. Folks this is .. Thousands of roofs here are tarped, Rivers are "Barley" in their Banks.. I don't even... 

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And we officially have Michael!

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 8
Location: 21.2°N 84.9°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
 

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1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

NWS says for ATL to expect TS conditions.  We will see I’m skeptical.  I may even take a quick ride down to S. GA and see this sucker move in inland. 

Personally, i'm pulling for the 11am track..as that keeps the strongest winds away from here while still giving us some decent rains. I'm really nervous about getting a gfs like track and getting such strong southerly winds. 

We'll see how big this system is when it makes landfall but right now it's already fairly large. So i would think Even with that track though some gusts to tropical storm force is probable. Sucks the peak will be at night though. 

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I think landfall is starting to zero in on Panama City to the Big Bend area. The euro has this far enough east that the wind impacts would be negligible for NC. GFS is a different story, however. Euro would need to trend towards the GFS for me to get excited about anything other than rain.

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I live in Macon, GA which is directly in the middle of state. I know it is too early to give specifics but what should I expect where I live? Anything bad?

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5 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

06Z Euro EPS: 

06zeps_michael.png

That's a decent west shift....the 06Z in front of the Euro throws me off lol.....the stronger storms stay east though that cluster of ens has shifted west quite a bit as well

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

That's a decent west shift....the 06Z in front of the Euro throws me off lol.....the stronger storms stay east though that cluster of ens has shifted west quite a bit as well

Yep! The 06Z Euro EPS Mean is pretty dang close to the 00Z UK OP with regards to the track over the Carolinas.  Will be interesting to see what the 12Z UK and Euro show in the next few hours... 

00ukmet_michael.png

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10 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

Yep! The 06Z Euro EPS Mean is pretty dang close to the 00Z UK OP with regards to the track over the Carolinas.  Will be interesting to see what the 12Z UK and Euro show in the next few hours... 

 

Several models now have the pressure holding steady or actually falling as if crosses NC and transitions.....wonder what that would mean for mixing down those 850's could be a case where we have average sustained winds 20-30 but are able to see bigger gust to 70+.

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10 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Several models now have the pressure holding steady or actually falling as if crosses NC and transitions.....wonder what that would mean for mixing down those 850's could be a case where we have average sustained winds 20-30 but are able to see bigger gust to 70+.

I think it will matter where that transition occurs. Tropical systems will lose a lot of wind once it passes. But I'm with you in not knowing how the winds would respond to the low (that has passed us) and the newly interacting high.  

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Storms weaken considerably after they make landfall.   However, the location and track will affect how much, including the speed.  Faster speed and a track over more flat terrain will lessen the weakening for a bit.  

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32 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Am I the only one who thinks the models are over estimating the weaking after it makes landfall

Yep.  It will be a TS at best in SC.  

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Personally, i'm pulling for the 11am track..as that keeps the strongest winds away from here while still giving us some decent rains. I'm really nervous about getting a gfs like track and getting such strong southerly winds. 

We'll see how big this system is when it makes landfall but right now it's already fairly large. So i would think Even with that track though some gusts to tropical storm force is probable. Sucks the peak will be at night though. 

The latest cv3 - GFS run, would be a different look for you!?

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Looks like NWS Tallahassee  is extremely concerned:

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL142018
1143 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 /1043 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

This product covers EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

***MICHAEL COULD DEVELOP INTO A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC EVENT FOR THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST***

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