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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

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Amazing to think this could remain tropical for another 48 hours.  FSU phase space diagrams indicate the gradual loss of tropical characteristics (nothing you can't find from radar anyway), but the diagrams based on the GFS show just how slow the degradation has been.

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1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Amazing to think this could remain tropical for another 48 hours.  FSU phase space diagrams indicate the gradual loss of tropical characteristics (nothing you can't find from radar anyway), but the diagrams based on the GFS show just how slow the degradation has been.

Helps that there's no front around to interact anytime soon (even when Florence gets toward Ohio the front is still back in the western Midwest).

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NC state rainfall record has almost certainly fallen, probably been surpassed on Morehead City by this point, as they are back into some of the mod-heavier bands shifting back east. Probably hard to get accurate numbers right now due to power outages and the fact so many roads are impassable.

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For when someone says we dont need meteorologists anymore and that we can just let computers do the work:

 

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On 9/14/2018 at 7:26 AM, frankdp23 said:

Any updates?  See on twitter you were in the eye wall.  Be safe!

Hi Frank! Thanks for the kind words and thoughts.  Drove into Scotts Hill to document the absolute brunt of the eyewall.   From there, drove into the center of the eye near Wrightsville beach. Been really busy posting updates and damage pics on Twitter.  Now, I just got a tornado warning alert on my phone.  

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Helps that there's no front around to interact anytime soon (even when Florence gets toward Ohio the front is still back in the western Midwest).

Is the NHC forecast potentially conservative?  Not that it matters too much as sensible weather.  But as a weather nerd discussion, is this tropical on the 18th?  That's unbelievable!

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wilmington has couplets left and right moving onshore. Holy cow.

With seemingly hours and hours more to go, according to radar. I have a feeling once airborne photography is able to launch after the bands pass, we are going to see devastating, Harvey-eque images. That radar has looks essentially the same for days.

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Wow at the CC drop with the strongish couplet Just SW of Wilmington.  That’s about as strong a tornado signal as you’ll see with one of these feeder band mini-sups. And at night, too!

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Wow at the CC drop with the strongish couplet Just SW of Wilmington.  That’s about as strong a tornado signal as you’ll see with one of these feeder band mini-sups. And at night, too!


For reference so others know what it looked like:

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7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


For reference so others know what it looked like:

And the Correlation Coefficient in the bottom left view (the streak of correlation coefficient on the right edge of the blue circle is a radar artifact - it's not moving - but the one right under the couplet is legit):

Screen%20Shot%202018-09-16%20at%201.24.4

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People need to realize now devastating the river flooding is going to be as well. Cape Fear river is already at record flood stage (surpassing record set in Floyd) and is forecast to rise another 4.5 feet. Still raining over that basin although rates have decreased. ILM area continues to get pounded. Hearing of many water resources ongoing in that area in particular.

ILM just updated their climate data:

1.50 Thursday + 9.58 Friday + 7.44 Satuday = 18.52" + 2.59 today" (as of 6 am)  = 21.11"

 

 

 

 

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That Bogue Sound gauge now shows 51.56" for the last 3 days.

7am-7am, working back:

5.07 
+22.85 
+23.64

= 51.56 inches

Edit:

Being on the water though (bridge over the inter-coastal), I wonder if some of that is from spray.

 

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3 hours ago, dan11295 said:

People need to realize now devastating the river flooding is going to be as well. Cape Fear river is already at record flood stage (surpassing record set in Floyd) and is forecast to rise another 4.5 feet. Still raining over that basin although rates have decreased. ILM area continues to get pounded. Hearing of many water resources ongoing in that area in particular.

ILM just updated their climate data:

1.50 Thursday + 9.58 Friday + 7.44 Satuday = 18.52" + 2.59 today" (as of 6 am)  = 21.11"

 

 

 

 

NC Emergency Management just tweeted out about a mandatory evacuation for those within a mile on either side of the Cape Fear river -

 

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OMG watching the radar, the bands that had slowly crawled from NE --> SW to finally reach and overspread Wilmington yesterday evening, are now reversing and moving SW --> NE as the TD circulation center starts to lift to the WNW, and are smacking them again (also as a note, KLTX is back up again).

 

950am-snapshot-KLTX-09162018.png

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TW for possible Waterspout

1151 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY...

At 1151 AM EDT, a possible waterspout was located just offshore over
Murrells Inlet, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...Doppler weather radar.

IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Socastee, Murrells Inlet, Bucksville, Burgess and
Bucksport.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Pretty strong couplet right now north of Myrtle Beach moving north-northwest.

There was a funnel report and a water spout report on that one.

2018-09-16_124751.JPG

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Flash Flood Emergency for the city of Charlotte. Very strong wording with this one. 

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Mecklenburg County in the Piedmont of North Carolina...

* Until 730 PM EDT Sunday.

* At 123 PM EDT, emergency management reported severe impacts from
  flash flooding in Mecklenburg County. Streams and creeks are
  running very high in South Charlotte, Matthews, and nearby areas.
  In some areas these bodies of water have risen to record stages
  and the extent of impacts may be unprecedented in some
  locations...flooding areas which have not flooded in recent
  memory. Up to three inches of rain have fallen since early
  morning, with an additional 2 to 4 inches likely to fall through
  tomorrow morning. Flash flooding will continue.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for central and southeast
Mecklenburg County. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND NOW!
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