LSC97wxnut Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Keelala said: I'm not getting snake at all. More of a "furmaid." Also from genesis. Anyone with Toddlers less than 5 will get this reference... Mer-Pup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. You obviously don't understand how vulnerable Eastern NC is with these storms. Matthew hit as a Cat 1 and killed 26 people in NC and $1.5 billion in damages. If even half of the total rain projections verify, this could end up catastrophic for SE NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former. Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Why should people tone it down? With storms like these, it's better to get ready for the worst and hope for the best. I don't mind the hype if it gets people to take this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Agree but the flooding will still be very bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, ag3 said: A category 2 is bad but not "catastrophic". People need to tone it down a bit. This isn't 2 days ago where the Euro had it straight into NC as a category 4. Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. This is dangerous thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Katrina was “only” a decaying cat 3. This is dangerous thinking. Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 What was Floyd when it dumped 25" of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Katrina made full direct landfall at a good forward speed. And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is going to weaken significantly before landfall. Shear really doesn't increase until the center is already onshore. You will have some upwelling, but it's mid September, not November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: And this is just going to sit and spin and plow water into the coast over a long period time which could potentially cause large issues. It is also a large storm with a big wind field and that can exasperate issues as well. Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I don't know why everyone is so convinced that this is going to weaken significantly before landfall. Shear really doesn't increase until the center is already onshore. You will have some upwelling, but it's mid September, not November. Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall. I take that back. The 6z Rgem brings it fully ashore and into interior NC. That would be the one exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC. 36 minutes ago, mattb65 said: The catastrophic part is going to be multiple consecutive tide cycles with sustained onshore flow as well as stalled bands of extreme rainfall rates causing catastrophic fresh water flooding. The risk for severe wind damage is lessened by the stall scenario but the surge and fresh water flooding is significantly enhanced. The latter two tend to cause more risk to life and property compared with the former. Thus I think catastrophic is definitely warranted even if the landfall strength is lessened. It would probably be better if the storm just charged ashore and wound itself down quickly. As it stands it will die a slow death and maintain strength to some degree while it is still over water. Read more, post less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Yes, I get it, but its not nearly as bad as it looked 2 days ago when the Euro and most models had it maintaining forward direction and a direct cat 3-4 landfall that sliced through the state of NC. Whatever weakening occurs should largely be mitigated by the expansiveness of the wind field in terms of storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, mattb65 said: Read more, post less Overhyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: Every single EPS member and most modeling weakens it to a cat 1-2 by landfall. And we're trusting ensembles for intensity forecasts now? Modeled intensity forecasts are historically inaccurate, and environmental conditions ahead are about the best you'll ever see in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: I take that back. The 6z Rgem brings it fully ashore and into interior NC. That would be the one exception. LOL for even mentioning the RGEM in a tropical discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: You obviously don't understand how vulnerable Eastern NC is with these storms. Matthew hit as a Cat 1 and killed 26 people in NC and $1.5 billion in damages. If even half of the total rain projections verify, this could end up catastrophic for SE NC and SC. You build a house on the ocean or bay, you expect this to happen. It’s nothing atypical to have a tropical storm or hurricane impacts these areas. rivers/streams will flood for sure in the typical areas. Again if you live at the bottom of a hill or near rivers/streams expectation is it floods. Recommendation is to avoid living in these areas if you are not expecting weather related problems at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 06z HWRF is a cat 3 at landfall, and you have a ton of areas in the RFQ that will experience onshore hurricane force winds. That's going to push a lot of water in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Animal said: You build a house on the ocean or bay, you expect this to happen. It’s nothing atypical to have a tropical storm or hurricane impacts these areas. rivers/streams will flood for sure in the typical areas. Again if you live at the bottom of a hill or near rivers/streams expectation is it floods. Recommendation is to avoid living in these areas if you are not expecting weather related problems at some point. You do realize that nearly all of ENC is essentially just a large coastal pain, river basin, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 but snow88 says thats the saving grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I remember last year people downplaying Irma as it was heading towards Florida, and that storm killed 92 people In The US and did 50 billion in damage. People need to stop downplaying every threat. I rather that everything be overhyped and overprepared than people blow it off and be under prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 17 minutes ago, H2O said: but snow88 says thats the saving grace he is quite frankly the worst poster in the NY forum, so it doesn't surprise me his comment..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, hazwoper said: he is quite frankly the worst poster in the NY forum, so it doesn't surprise me his comment..... He is the worst poster wherever he posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjmusser Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Can anyone help? I'm in a bit of a pickle. Supposed to be flying CLT> ATL > Paris Sat. Leave CLT 11am and leave ATL at 33pm. I am currently trying to cancel my CLT leg and drive down to ATL and leave for ATL on Friday night. Do you think that flight timing would also be in jeopardy? Now with it shifting further south idk if I should stay put in CLT. Not sure on the timing. Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 The amount of wishcasting/model hugging that some people do never cease to amaze me. For those that actually do provide some wonderful insight and there are many of you, it's truly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PressureDrop2017 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 For the member concerned about parents who ignore the evacuation of Sunset Beach, this video is of Hurricane Fran conditions about 5 miles from their location. It would be prudent for them to prepare for something similar to Fran in windspeed, and possibly worse than Fran in flooding. North Myrtle Beach and vicinity appear at 1 hour 30 minutes, the URL should start the video at that time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq2dLAoQwDs#t=1h30m8s To get them to realize the devastation that was caused by Hurricane Fran, and therefore not to take the risk about the uncertain track of Florence. The island portion of Sunset Beach is already under mandatory evacuation orders, the causeway is likely to be completely underwater like it was in Hurricane Matthew https://www.newsobserver.com/news/weather/article106951087.html and with water that high, it seems questionable whether the barrier-island offers much protection to the onshore part of Sunset Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, rjmusser said: Can anyone help? I'm in a bit of a pickle. Supposed to be flying CLT> ATL > Paris Sat. Leave CLT 11am and leave ATL at 33pm. I am currently trying to cancel my CLT leg and drive down to ATL and leave for ATL on Friday night. Do you think that flight timing would also be in jeopardy? Now with it shifting further south idk if I should stay put in CLT. Not sure on the timing. Any ideas? If it were me I def wouldn’t chance trying to get out of CLT. Southwest is looking to cancel flights ahead of the storm and CHS in Charleston is shut down after midnight tonight. I do believe however that ATL flight operations will be good to go still. My point is as the forecast becomes more evident to verification, airports in Raleigh, Charlotte etc will begin to cease operations. My buddy works for the FAA so he deals with this stuff all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.