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September Discobs Thread


George BM

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Stalled front is cool. Best to be on the LEFT side of it. Driving down to my place in North Carolina the temperature on the car thermometer went up nearly 20 degrees into the low-90s just east of Richmond down to it Williamsburg for a while. I'm on the nasty humidity right now. 

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The wettest month in Washington DC history was September 1934 with 17.45" of rain. I assume this had something to do with a hurricane. Washington is already above 5" for this month, with Hurricane Florence on the way. Could Washington DC make a run for the wettest month in history? Could they make a run for the wettest year in history? I hope not, for the sake of all of the millions of people in the Mid Atlantic who have already had floods affect their communities this year. Currently Washington is not too far from the wettest January 1st - September 10th of all time. (45.9" vs 49.5")

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23 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The wettest month in Washington DC history was September 1934 with 17.45" of rain. I assume this had something to do with a hurricane. Washington is already above 5" for this month, with Hurricane Florence on the way. Could Washington DC make a run for the wettest month in history? Could they make a run for the wettest year in history? I hope not, for the sake of all of the millions of people in the Mid Atlantic who have already had floods affect their communities this year. Currently Washington is not too far from the wettest January 1st - September 10th of all time. (45.9" vs 49.5")

You must not have heard the news.

We suck.

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9 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

1.76" overnight.  Must have been a very localized event, with MRB around 0.50" and HGR barely 0.10".  Rural roads, farm fields and yards all under water this morning.  7.00" now for September, the 5th consecutive month above 7"  

Wow.  Nothing down this way.

At some point we are going to pay for this wet pattern.  My guess is starting in december....

Hopefully, it turns dry for Oct and Nov before reigniting, but with our luck.....

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11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Wow.  Nothing down this way.

At some point we are going to pay for this wet pattern.  My guess is starting in december....

Hopefully, it turns dry for Oct and Nov before reigniting, but with our luck.....

10 of the last 11 Novembers have been drier than normal (at MRB.)  But 6 of the last 9 Octobers have been above normal for precip.  I would like to see this reversed this year.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS keeps teasing Canadian high pressure over us D10+, but it isn’t getting nearer with time. 

 

This has got to be one of the worst and most persistent weather patterns I can recall.

Yeah, this summer just won't end.  It's ridiculous that we can't even get a transient shot of Canadian continental air.

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And pushing 90 again late next week.  Good ****ing grief.

Amazing how warm the Ocean temps still are.  I see nothing to cool them anytime soon,  maybe just the seasonal decline of solar.   

Might be thinking this October we could have an East Coast  hurricane threat , not out of the question based on the SSTs and progression of rising air over the Atlantic in a few weeks.   

 https://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/atlantic-city-new-jersey

 

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59 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Strange, my forecast only has two days above 80 in the next week.  83 is the highest.  I better double check that.

My point and click has highs of 84f for Friday, and we all know that is likely to trend upward as we close in.  If we are mid 80s, then there will be 90f in the forecast area.

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After the remnants of Flo and the cold front pass through the region, mid to late week looks pretty nice with lower dew points and somewhat cooler temps. Looks like low 60s for lows and around 80 for a high on Thursday. Temps wont be much different, but with a drier air mass, low 80s with low dews and sunny will feel a lot nicer than mostly cloudy, low 80s, with high humidity.

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There has only been one month where MRB recorded double-digit precip amounts: October 1942 at 10.38".  Depending on how tomorrow goes, I might have a shot at 10" this month in my yard.  Currently at 7.15".

The 9.05" I recorded in August would have been the 10th all-time wettest month vs Martinsburg's records. 

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18 hours ago, Jakkel138 said:

After the 21st of September, the 15 day TWC forecast has my area getting only into the mid-upper 70s. Think pattern change starts around the first day of fall.

Nothing on the 6Z GFS other than more SE ridging and fronts washing out and not clearing us.  More AN temps and humidity.  You have to go to 312hr before we see 850s below 15-18C.  Not seeing any pattern change anytime soon.

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nothing on the 6Z GFS other than more SE ridging and fronts washing out and not clearing us.  More AN temps and humidity.  You have to go to 312hr before we see 850s below 15-18C.  Not seeing any pattern change anytime soon.

Agree.

You know the Atlantic warm SSTs were left mainly  untouched because of the way Florence moved in over the SE .  Going to take a while I believe to transition to real Fall,. and when it does there is always the potential of a shorter Fall and a quicker start to winter . That may sound silly but you never know, but if that is going to be the case we would need to see signs in October and a step down pattern on the long range models.   

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27 minutes ago, frd said:

Agree.

You know the Atlantic warm SSTs were left mainly  untouched because of the way Florence moved in over the SE .  Going to take a while I believe to transition to real Fall,. and when it does there is always the potential of a shorter Fall and a quicker start to winter . That may sound silly but you never know, but if that is going to be the case we would need to see signs in October and a step down pattern on the long range models.   

I dont know about winter (but always bet on fail around here)  but fall will definitely be short.  We've been robbed of any early fall weather this month.  At best, we are waiting another another 13 days and that takes us almost the entirety of this month.

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13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I dont know about winter (but always bet on fail around here)  but fall will definitely be short.  We've been robbed of any early fall weather this month.  At best, we are waiting another another 13 days and that takes us almost the entirety of this month.

If you don't go with met seasons, Sept is predominately a summer month. And it works better for here. Just getting it to be 'less hot' for most of the month is a win.

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