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July 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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Anybody have any clues from the GFS or Euro as to how long this upper level pattern is going to continue? I saw some indications that it might clear out for the weekend but now in the NWS 7-day, it looks like it continues through at least the middle of next week?

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4 minutes ago, larrye said:

Anybody have any clues from the GFS or Euro as to how long this upper level pattern is going to continue? I saw some indications that it might clear out for the weekend but now in the NWS 7-day, it looks like it continues through at least the middle of next week?

I'm reeeeeeeeeeeeeally hoping for a nice Saturday. Its the Quick Check Balloon Festival and the last couple years have been washouts or enough storms in the area that the balloons didn't go up. 10th year i'm having 50+ people at my house and I think we have seen the balloons go up 2 times that night, and never in my direction...

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56 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Will be short lived, numerous showers are developing over NE NJ and SE NY.

that won't get me here.   The stuff further south will  maybe get me this eve.    Odd that all models showing it going east or dying out.  I'm right on the line based on RGEM, GFS, NAM etc. They either kill the stuff over SE VA or shoot it east.

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1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

I'm reeeeeeeeeeeeeally hoping for a nice Saturday. Its the Quick Check Balloon Festival and the last couple years have been washouts or enough storms in the area that the balloons didn't go up. 10th year i'm having 50+ people at my house and I think we have seen the balloons go up 2 times that night, and never in my direction...

Hey, I'm having about 50 at my house too for this.  Last year we had people on Saturday and they didn't go up.  But of course on Sunday evening when we didn't have a party one landed 3 homes away.  Nice to see another Branchburg person posting.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

that won't get me here.   The stuff further south will  maybe get me this eve.    Odd that all models showing it going east or dying out.  I'm right on the line based on RGEM, GFS, NAM etc. They either kill the stuff over SE VA or shoot it east.

What can I say? You're in the rain hole.

Down here it's been one of the wettest periods in recent memory, with the only exception being most of yesterday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What can I say? You're in the rain hole.

Down here it's been one of the wettest periods in recent memory, with the only exception being most of yesterday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

these set ups almost always favor inland areas, this one no exception.   Did get a 5 minute burst of heavy rain this AM that dropped .40   Getting just enough here and there... No need to water much this summer outside of a dry 3 weeks mid summer.

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1 hour ago, frankdp23 said:

Hey, I'm having about 50 at my house too for this.  Last year we had people on Saturday and they didn't go up.  But of course on Sunday evening when we didn't have a party one landed 3 homes away.  Nice to see another Branchburg person posting.

Thats always the case. I feel like every year they like launching them friday night, saturday morning for the 5k, and sunday night...Saturday night they have rarely gone up in the 10 years i've been in Branchburg, even though thats probably the most crowded day there. Maybe they focus more on the balloon glow that night...

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

that won't get me here.   The stuff further south will  maybe get me this eve.    Odd that all models showing it going east or dying out.  I'm right on the line based on RGEM, GFS, NAM etc. They either kill the stuff over SE VA or shoot it east.

the batch over the delmarva appears to be dying out now

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

the batch over the delmarva appears to be dying out now

models got that part right....they nail BDR and points east tonight with new activity...models had the "jump zone" yesterday and looks like they were on to something.  (this doesn't include the day time heating pop up activity we are seeing now inland)

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