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pasnownut

Spring 2018

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I recall an April, maybe 90's, where the area had a general 4-8" snowfall that accumulated on all surfaces.  Maybe someone here will recall.  Could have been late 80's but do not think it was far back as 82. 

Think that was April 1996


.

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

After only 1 week away from the forum I checked back in last night to discover the upcoming snow opportunities.  Some of the quoted stats for this winter for MDT are truly amazing.  Like, I never would have thought that the highest temp for the whole month of March in MDT was just 54!  That's about as incredible as one May back in the 90's when the temperature never touched 80 degrees the entire month.  I think a bunch of us cracked 80 on the second day of the mini Feb heatwave.  I hit 81.5.  And then, to have the mean for the month of March colder than February, again quite a feat of mother nature.  I think it's one of the many aspects of weather watching that keeps so many of us excited.  There just always seems to be a record of some kind to be broken, whether it be to our liking or not.

Regarding a post possibly by you, Maytown, about April 6, 1982, I want to add a little bit more from my memories.  That storm took place on a Tuesday.  I was only one month away from graduating from Rutgers and then heading off to Optometry school in August.  Even though I knew nothing about indexes, or blocking or the like, there almost had to be some kind of negative NAO present at the time.  An incredibly cold air mass for early April was plunging down from Canada.  Thicknesses were forecast to be around 510, and the center was going to pass near the mid atlantic and northeast.  Once again, timing was everything with that storm.  While I don't know the type of storm, my guess is maybe Miller B?  I can't remember the precise timing regarding when the storm was taking place...if it was late Monday to late Tuesday, or it started sometime Tuesday and continued into Tuesday night before ending.  Again, I was in north Jersey, but it sounds like those out here got in on the storm as well.  2 Stats I do remember...the storm delivered 9.5" of snowfall by late Tuesday evening, and the temperatures dropped into the mid-teens Tuesday night and failed to crack freezing with full sunshine during the daytime on Wednesday.  Central Park broke 2 record lows at midnight (April 6/7) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning when the temperature dropped to 21 degrees.  It was, and has been for the past 36 years the biggest single April snowstorm that I have witnessed.

The question I have for djr or others if you know, is what is MDT's snowiest April on record stat?  How about the top 5 list??  If we get the goods both tonight and again next weekend, do we have a shot at the all-time April snowfall record at MDT???

Current record for MDT is the 18” event from back in the late 1800s.  Hard to get much info on that event but there are historical references of a big nor’easter type storm hitting the area with DC missing out on the big totals (so 100+ years later nothing has changed lol).

Ill have to look at April snow rankings but can’t imagine they are much different from the 2+” events that I had found.  It’s really tough to get snow around here in April but not impossible.  Crazy part about tonight is thinking it’s going to snow with how nice it is right now.  Need heavy rates to get surface temps down and that is exactly what the models have had for days.  

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9 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Happy Easter peeps!!

looks like pa and blizz get some snow in their Easter baskets!!

crazy to see how winter keeps hanging in and if the models are right yet another chance later this week.  Have a good day gang. 

 

Happy Easter maybe one more finale 

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This will be a funny little storm. 3-6” in grass when you wake up, maybe a little slush on side roads, and by late afternoon the grass will be mostly bare again. 

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6 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

This all kind of surreal stuff here fellas...snow in April is not super uncommon. Tracking multiple threats in the same week in April? I've been around longer than most here and I sure don't ever remember it. Enjoy a rare, glorious week of tracking! 

Yeah we can snow in April but I’ve got to say I also can’t remember 3 legit threats this late in the game in my time doing this. Crazy stuff and man if today’s runs are close to verifying it will go down as quite a notable ending. 

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6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The GFS & Euro crush us next weekend!

You need to subtract about 4 inches from these amounts below because of the storm tomorrow morning. It is a week away, but the pattern supports it. The ensembles have been mixing in solutions like this for days. It’s going to be a fun week of bonus tracking !

E4380768-43A0-418E-A6B6-D6EFB4FD0CF6.png

CE5B89F4-3DA3-475F-B4BD-96B60C9A2F1A.png

I’d give body parts for those maps in January ....let alone April. Wow I may have another week left. Sheesh. 

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FWIW the last few runs of the HRRR have been very aggressive for most of CPA, including State College. This is a sounding for 4 am tomorrow and shows very favorable snow growth in State College: this would easily support rates of 1 inch per hour or better. 

hrrr.png

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Sounds like Wolfe just declared a state of emergency. Fun. It's April.

 

Edit: Looks like that was some ******** being funny on Facebook. ****, I hate April 1st.

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Visibility is dropping in northern Ohio where the snow is starting - already below 2 mi with light snow being reported from Mansfield and southwest to Dayton.  Down to 46F here - expecting a dip and then brief rise as clouds move in before dropping to low to mid 30s with the onset of snow.  MDT reported a high of 58F today too lol.

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Pittsburgh is reporting light rain/light snow and at 40F.  That station over the next few hours will be a good indicator of how temperatures will be likely to respond to falling precip as this system moves east overnight.  It is not so much a question of how long does it take for something to start reaching the surface but how quick do temps drop to near freezing.

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12 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Pittsburgh is reporting light rain/light snow and at 40F.  That station over the next few hours will be a good indicator of how temperatures will be likely to respond to falling precip as this system moves east overnight.  It is not so much a question of how long does it take for something to start reaching the surface but how quick do temps drop to near freezing.

850s are fine temps will be more a factor of how it compacts and then hard surfaces 

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13 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Pittsburgh is reporting light rain/light snow and at 40F.  That station over the next few hours will be a good indicator of how temperatures will be likely to respond to falling precip as this system moves east overnight.  It is not so much a question of how long does it take for something to start reaching the surface but how quick do temps drop to near freezing.

It's definitely mixing in here but I'm going to sleep so I can't give updates whenever it goes over to all snow which should be soon. 

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1 minute ago, 2001kx said:

First flakes are starting to fall here

Still waiting on them here but I'm sure it wont be long...looks like we're gonna be right on the fringe again. Stilll awesome to be tracking snow in April! Hope this one is an overperformer for everyone!!

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Precip starting here, looks to be mostly or all snow. Need to work on temps a bit (39ish) but they should wet bulb down pretty directly as the rates go up. 

24 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Still waiting on them here but I'm sure it wont be long...looks like we're gonna be right on the fringe again. Stilll awesome to be tracking snow in April! Hope this one is an overperformer for everyone!!

Judging by radar trends and latest full HRRR (02z) I think the State College region is going to be in this one pretty comfortably. HRRR in fact suggests State College to be close to the heavy snow axis. Probably would knock an inch or two off of the high end but we'll see how well things accumulate once precip gets heavier. This event is certainly warmer temp wise than the last one, both on ground temps and surface temps.. so that's a potential limiter. On the other hand however... this is coming at night, and I would imagine from a pure snow growth standpoint that ratios of >10:1 are certainly achievable. Should be fun to watch, this will be a quick and hard hitting event. 

5ac1ae984e9d3_ScreenShot2018-04-02at12_04_24AM.thumb.png.1409833b1a6f51ab7eff38a7c97ec572.png

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