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pasnownut

Spring 2018

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How about some snow maps from a few select runs today for our new “Spring” thread!?!

The models continue to insist that we will have well below normal temps for the first 2 weeks of April. The pattern looks active, along with some continued blocking near Greenland. We have a chance to get a few more inches of snow before we flip to true spring. If we can get 14 inches on March 21st, we could get 4 inches 2 weeks later. At the very least, it will be  interesting to watch our final winter weather chapter unfold this season.

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My only fear of snow this late, is what it does to the plants and shrubs. I would think right now we should have a pretty spectacular spring as wet as everything is. 

DJR- how are you making out up there on the ridge with this wind, do you have a bunch of limbs and branches to clean up? It seems much windier then normal

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

My only fear of snow this late, is what it does to the plants and shrubs. I would think right now we should have a pretty spectacular spring as wet as everything is. 

DJR- how are you making out up there on the ridge with this wind, do you have a bunch of limbs and branches to clean up? It seems much windier then normal

I'd be more concerned w/ fruit tree buds.  Down here weve seen the damage of late season cold.  Fruit trees - Peach/cherry trees were devastated a couple years back.

Remember, snow is an insulator and helps ground plants/shrubs.  

Blizz that is some crazy stuff were it to verify.  Just peeked at overnights, and yeah, while progressive in nature, there is plenty of cold close enough for a well timed event to break for some late season love from above, and a few decent chances are showing. 

 

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

My only fear of snow this late, is what it does to the plants and shrubs. I would think right now we should have a pretty spectacular spring as wet as everything is. 

DJR- how are you making out up there on the ridge with this wind, do you have a bunch of limbs and branches to clean up? It seems much windier then normal

I have only lost two trees and surprisingly not many branches but these last few months have had the most trees go down around me that I have seen since moving here.  Had a willow tree go down the end of October and had a tree fall in January at the top of my property but that one was with winds coming straight down the ridge and my neighbor up behind me has almost all of the trees cleared for some reason on his property.  It has seemed much windier than normal recently and most of these wind events have not been from severe thunderstorms but deep low pressure systems passing nearby.

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I'd be more concerned w/ fruit tree buds.  Down here weve seen the damage of late season cold.  Fruit trees - Peach/cherry trees were devastated a couple years back.

Remember, snow is an insulator and helps ground plants/shrubs.  

Blizz that is some crazy stuff were it to verify.  Just peeked at overnights, and yeah, while progressive in nature, there is plenty of cold close enough for a well timed event to break for some late season love from above, and a few decent chances are showing. 

 

i have found when we gradually go into spring, my Lilacs do better. When we have that brief warm up they started to wake up. don't mess with my lilacs :wacko: 

2 hours ago, djr5001 said:

I have only lost two trees and surprisingly not many branches but these last few months have had the most trees go down around me that I have seen since moving here.  Had a willow tree go down the end of October and had a tree fall in January at the top of my property but that one was with winds coming straight down the ridge and my neighbor up behind me has almost all of the trees cleared for some reason on his property.  It has seemed much windier than normal recently and most of these wind events have not been from severe thunderstorms but deep low pressure systems passing nearby.

I agree, it seems like mother nature turned her fans on and never turned them off. I have more clean up of branches and especially freaking pine cones then i can ever remember. 

Glad you didn't lose more.  

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

i have found when we gradually go into spring, my Lilacs do better. When we have that brief warm up they started to wake up. don't mess with my lilacs :wacko: 

I agree, it seems like mother nature turned her fans on and never turned them off. I have more clean up of branches and especially freaking pine cones then i can ever remember. 

Glad you didn't lose more.  

lol.  Duely noted.  

I think we lost 1 kind of flower last spring, but I do NOT have the green thumb, so dont ask what they were.  BIG tall and single 3" roundish flower.  They shot up....n went poof.  Look like they belong in Dr. Suess flick.

LOL

 

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43 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i have found when we gradually go into spring, my Lilacs do better. When we have that brief warm up they started to wake up. don't mess with my lilacs :wacko: 

I agree, it seems like mother nature turned her fans on and never turned them off. I have more clean up of branches and especially freaking pine cones then i can ever remember. 

Glad you didn't lose more.  

Some years I think we get a warm up too quickly that just scorches some of the spring vegetation.  I was just looking at the February/March Harrisburg data and it is crazy to see that the current high for the month of March at MDT is 54 degrees which is 25 degrees lower than February's 79!!  In fact, MDT has been below normal on average since March 5th.  Average temperature so far for March is 37.1 when February was 38.7.  That is quite impressive with the fact that March is the month with the greatest rise in "normal" temperature values from the start to the end that even with higher sun angle/longer days/etc. there are still ways to be colder than February. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

lol.  Duely noted.  

I think we lost 1 kind of flower last spring, but I do NOT have the green thumb, so dont ask what they were.  BIG tall and single 3" roundish flower.  They shot up....n went poof.  Look like they belong in Dr. Suess flick.

LOL

 

sounds like a red hot poker

 

https://www.highcountrygardens.com/perennial-plants/kniphofia/kniphofia-uvaria-hybrid-mix?adpos=1o9&scid=scplp3840&sc_intid=3840&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIi_KLkpON2gIVmYuzCh1NoQH4EAYYCSABEgKjMvD_BwE

 

 

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50 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Anyone remember this? 

TMI.jpg

I was a freshman in high school who lived JUST outside of the 15 mile radius evacuation zone. Being extremely naive at the time, i was stoked because we were dismissed from school pretty much as soon as the buses could get their to pick us up. I didn't understand the significance until dinner that night when my parents were talking in hushed tone about possibly leaving the area. (we never did but we knew quite a few that did)

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23 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I was a freshman in high school who lived JUST outside of the 15 mile radius evacuation zone. Being extremely naive at the time, i was stoked because we were dismissed from school pretty much as soon as the buses could get their to pick us up. I didn't understand the significance until dinner that night when my parents were talking in hushed tone about possibly leaving the area. (we never did but we knew quite a few that did)

Remember it well.  I just got out of hospital after being hit by a car (sledding accident), and was already off school for a month.  Had to leave area due to amount of radiation exposure i already had from full body xrays and whatever other stuff they had to do (I was in a coma for several days due to brain swelling).  Wasn't quite so cool for me when the docs scare your parents and say "get him outta here". 

We ALL got lucky....really lucky, as from what I've learned, i'd not have gone nearly far enough away to be safe.  Scary deal.

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46 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I was a freshman in high school who lived JUST outside of the 15 mile radius evacuation zone. Being extremely naive at the time, i was stoked because we were dismissed from school pretty much as soon as the buses could get their to pick us up. I didn't understand the significance until dinner that night when my parents were talking in hushed tone about possibly leaving the area. (we never did but we knew quite a few that did)

We packed up and left. Half my family went to my uncles in Tennessee and the other half went to my grandparents in SC. You remember nobody, especially the media didn't really have a grasp on what was going on. I remember watching the news at my uncles place and they made it sound like it was total devastation. I was young too, a soph. and totally didn't get it. My dad was the toughest guy i ever knew and i still recall watching the tears run down his face and said we'll never go home. I only ever saw tears in his eyes 2 times, that was one of them. It was scary times.

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43 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

We packed up and left. Half my family went to my uncles in Tennessee and the other half went to my grandparents in SC. You remember nobody, especially the media didn't really have a grasp on what was going on. I remember watching the news at my uncles place and they made it sound like it was total devastation. I was young too, a soph. and totally didn't get it. My dad was the toughest guy i ever knew and i still recall watching the tears run down his face and said we'll never go home. I only ever saw tears in his eyes 2 times, that was one of them. It was scary times.

Wow.  That's a great example as to how we all never really knew the magnitude, but yet knew the possibilities. 

Again....we were REALLY lucky.

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The GEFS, Euro & EPS were each very impressive today with snow chances through the first 10 days of April.

The GEFS at 12z gives a few inches of snow to CTP, including the LSV. 

The EPS at 12z would be a good looking run even in the middle of winter. About 30 of the 50 EPS ensemble members had at least a couple of inches of snow for CTP, including the LSV. There are several good snow hits mixed in as well. It brings an average of around 4 inches of snow to the Harrisburg area by the end of the run.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The GEFS, Euro & EPS were each very impressive today with snow chances through the first 10 days of April.

The GEFS at 12z gives a few inches of snow to CTP, including the LSV. 

The EPS at 12z would be a good looking run even in the middle of winter. About 30 of the 50 EPS ensemble members had at least a couple of inches of snow for CTP, including the LSV. There are several good snow hits mixed in as well. It brings an average of around 4 inches of snow to the Harrisburg area by the end of the run.

6C633F43-9031-4E21-9359-EA2920719164.png

1A283A25-9A65-42D4-95D2-DA9DF93F59AA.png

910EC4AF-1E4C-4CF0-9B88-D432F4A763E4.png

Bring it home Blizz, April snow one last time. 

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In Bethlehem we had a 12" April snowstorm back in 1982. Can't remember the exact date, but I do remember that it was opening day of baseball season.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

In Bethlehem we had a 12" April snowstorm back in 1982. Can't remember the exact date, but I do remember that it was opening day of baseball season.

Might of been April 6th. I had 7" from that, and what was most amazing is that it was a dry snow that drifted like crazy. Ever since the October snowstorm several years ago I've debated in my mind which was a more anomalous event for my area. Regardless, those are the top 2 "fluke" snowstorms of my lifetime. 

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

I can remember a few times over the years we had snow in April, but i can't remember specifics. Other then maybe a squall. 

based on Harrisburg's "record" here are all days with reports of 2" or more of snowfall in April:

April 7, 2003 - 2.0"

April 9, 1996 - 4.0"

April 9, 1985 - 2.6"

April 6, 1982 - 6.3"

April 9, 1982 - 3.5"

April 12, 1959 - 3.1"

April 27/28, 1928 - 1.5"/0.9"

April 1, 1924 - 8.0"

April 14/15, 1923 - 2.0"/.3"

April 8, 1916 - 6.0"

April 5/6, 1898 - 2.2"/.1"

April 10/11, 1894 - 5.0"/13.0"

So 12 2" or more events in 129 years on record (x 30 days per April) = 0.31% chance for 2" or more to accumulate in an event on any day in April in Harrisburg!

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1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

Thats fantastic, thank you. Though i was 19, i don't really remember April 1982, but i bet people were pissed off with almost 10" snow in a couple days

Surprised you don't remember it...it was a cold powder bomb. I want to say temps were in the mid 20s during the event...admittedly, it was a few years ago and the memory vault isn't quite as sharp as it used to be. :) We had significant drifting with the event, too. 

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