sauss06 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: I hope you all like wind - it’s gonna blow hard all day. 1 hour ago, maytownpawx said: I saw the high wind warning this morning and immediately thought of you. The wind hasn't stopped blowing in like 5 months, or so it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 12z NAM a bit north of 6z that has snow for a bit of PA (rain to snow the more south and east you go) but event still near tail end of its range. Timing on this run is late Friday into Saturday morning for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 That's a major improvement over 6Z, not that 6Z was all that bad. No one is talking about the sudden snow in the forecast for tomorrow night into Friday. Where did that come from? MDT showed about 1" of snow tomorrow night by Friday morning. That would make this 3 more snow events between now and next Tuesday, which is insane for April. BTW, thanks so much for using Kuchera!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Event #1 12z GFS today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Last 8 runs of the GFS ending 18z Saturday (same as what I did with the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, djr5001 said: Last 8 runs of the GFS ending 18z Saturday (same as what I did with the NAM) Nice! Thanks djr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 GFS says event #2 is a non-event. Looks like all focus in on #1 and then hope trends colder for 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 12z Euro continues norther trend - I can't post the maps I have but it is interesting that again the kuchera map is showing ratios greater than 10:1. York/Lancaster/Harrisburg mostly in the 7-9" range on kuchera with State College even getting some love compared to 0z. It's a big difference from 0z for DC so you can imagine how well that's going over somewhere else lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I'm a little sad I won't be here Saturday, man. I do hope roads clear up quickly so our petsitter has no issues coming over, but man missing April snowstorms should be a punishable offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 so when is this wind gonna die down? Already have 1 tree down beside the house from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, djr5001 said: 12z Euro continues norther trend - I can't post the maps I have but it is interesting that again the kuchera map is showing ratios greater than 10:1. York/Lancaster/Harrisburg mostly in the 7-9" range on kuchera with State College even getting some love compared to 0z. It's a big difference from 0z for DC so you can imagine how well that's going over somewhere else lol. Nice I don't have maps but saw that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, paweather said: Nice I don't have maps but saw that as well. This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, 2001kx said: This? Nope...that's from 0Z. Discussion is about 12Z run shift north. Had no idea DC was 18" in overnight run. If the 0Z came true that would have to be the biggest April snowstorm in DC history I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Nope...that's from 0Z. Discussion is about 12Z run shift north. Had no idea DC was 18" in overnight run. If the 0Z came true that would have to be the biggest April snowstorm in DC history I would imagine. yes that is 0z it has shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 If models look like this tomorrow night I will be all in. Don't get me wrong I'm excited, but I want just one more full day of model runs showing us getting snow in April. Paweather keep up the good vibes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, daxx said: If models look like this tomorrow night I will be all in. Don't get me wrong I'm excited, but I want just one more full day of model runs showing us getting snow in April. Paweather keep up the good vibes! will do. I feel like this will be good tonight but who knows. Just like Monday's storm that trended north and hit most of PA. I am hoping the same with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7AM Saturday on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 This looks like more and more a redo of Sunday night, Monday storm quick hitter, heavy rates and for us 4-5" but out of here by 1pm. Why can't April storms slow down. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Friendly reminder, now that we're on daylight saving time, 12Z is 8:00AM local time. Does anyone have a euro snowmap from 12Z they can post? Very interested in seeing the north trend results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Shhhhhh!! Don't tell anyone....I just grabbed this from the MA sub... After reading several pages of their posts before I found this it was clear they were concerned over the dreaded "north trend". DC went from 18" down to 3" in one run. Haven't we seen this before for us too? I do wish we all could share the love with this, but for them, and April, everything really does have to come together perfectly to have any hope, especially the event occurring overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Shhhhhh!! Don't tell anyone....I just grabbed this from the MA sub... After reading several pages of their posts before I found this it was clear they were concerned over the dreaded "north trend". DC went from 18" down to 3" in one run. Haven't we seen this before for us too? I do wish we all could share the love with this, but for them, and April, everything really does have to come together perfectly to have any hope, especially the event occurring overnight. Repeat of Sunday night and Monday to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Looks indeed like a similar redo, maybe more precip though. By mid afternoon you won’t know it snowed except shaded spots I’d assume. But still, incredible for April. MDT will have more April snow than February snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 MDT has had a few gusts over 50 today, many - many - over 40. Still sounds like my roof wants to lift off. Wind sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 51mph gust up here today. Now lets see what the models decide for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Most models trended north today & now put most of CTP in the game for good snow on Saturday! Hopefully we settle into the sweet spot for this one over the next day or so. The last few storms, the good old Euro & NAM combo has been a good indicator of where the best snow will go, & I like where those 2 models went today for CTP. CPC seems to like the further north trend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Friendly reminder, now that we're on daylight saving time, 12Z is 8:00AM local time. Does anyone have a euro snowmap from 12Z they can post? Very interested in seeing the north trend results. Thanks Carlisle! Your right my bad I always have 12z=7am in my head since tracking for so many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 hours ago, canderson said: MDT has had a few gusts over 50 today, many - many - over 40. Still sounds like my roof wants to lift off. Wind sucks. Those winds almost blew me over a couple of times down on 81 south of Carlisle. Little branches we're blowing out of the trees and hitting the truck. It was the worst wind I've driven in in a long time. Now safely parked in Blacksburg, SC. What a difference a few hundred miles makes. Down here the grass is green and growing, and while most trees are budding, they are green, and some are leafed out already. Hopefully I can get back Friday night and be safely at home for the Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 0z ready......set......go Edit: I should also point out we are in April the 4th day 2018. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 That CPC map sends shivers up and down my spine....and I'm not referring to the much below temps outlook...haha. LSV is almost perfectly in the center of that circle, geometrically-speaking. Stunning. I disagree with this storm being a repeat of Sun/Mon. The high temps last Sunday were close to 60 degrees and we had to drop 28 degrees diurnally to reach freezing that night. That won't be the case this time as the arctic front will move through us later Friday ensuring a much more rapid drop off in temps, and temps dropping below 32 and most likely remaining below freezing during the storm on Saturday. An arctic air mass is moving in for this storm while we did not have one present last weekend. Lastly, latitude played a major role with snow accumulations with the last storm as the further north you went the higher the amounts became. Southern border counties got less than 2" generally. This upcoming storm, as depicted on the CPC map will have its heavy axis from southwest to northeast, so the real southerners have a serious shot at serious accumulations this time around. Finally, my winds this afternoon during the height of the peak winds were frequently gusting to near 40mph, with the absolute peak of 46.2 mph occurring right at 4:00pm. This gust was the highest gust I have recorded this calendar year thus far. While walking my dog around 1:00pm I thought I was going to get blown over a few times with those crazy gusts. What a week of weather this has been so far, with the best yet to come?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: That CPC map sends shivers up and down my spine....and I'm not referring to the much below temps outlook...haha. LSV is almost perfectly in the center of that circle, geometrically-speaking. Stunning. I disagree with this storm being a repeat of Sun/Mon. The high temps last Sunday were close to 60 degrees and we had to drop 28 degrees to reach freezing that night. Second, an arctic air mass is moving in for this storm while we did not have one present last weekend. Lastly, latitude played a major role with snow accumulations with the last storm as the further north you went the higher the amounts became. Southern border counties got less than 2" generally. This upcoming storm, as depicted on the CPC map will have its heavy axis from southwest to northeast, so the real southerners have a serious shot at serious accumulations this time around. Finally, my winds this afternoon during the height of the peak winds were frequently gusting to near 40mph, with the absolute peak of 46.2 mph occurring right at 4:00pm. This gust was the highest gust I have recorded this calendar year thus far. While walking my dog around 1:00pm I thought I was going to get blown over a few times with those crazy gusts. What a week of weather this has been so far, with the best yet to come?? I guess I could have clarified better, sorry the redo was with more on rates and how quick it came and left. My bad. The setup here is different but the overall way it acts is similar in timing and rates can it just slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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