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Confidence increases for coastal storm threat along Eastern Seaboard


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Initial thoughts. This storm appears to be a bit difference than most given the banding appears like it may align more west-to-east as opposed to more north-to-south. Snowgrowth looks very good with nice depth, rich moisture, and some rather excellent lift through the SGZ. Will have to be adjusted slightly as details become much more clear. I also think we could see another crazy gradient type deal as well which makes constructing a map difficult:

 

5ab00d84bab44_firstcallsnowmap.jpg.d4cd27d79f0a8982bfc8a6084acba568.jpg

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Might be alleviation after this week ...might have to wait. 

I don't have a lot of confidence .. but there is semblances of seasonal forcing influencing the extended ranges. 

The GEF teleconnectors really were signaling a more coherent signal for warm flip prior to yesterday, but have since toned it down some. Still there in some form.  This D9 and 10 Euro .. you can see an example of this tendency for seasonality, with a general relaxation of the cold everywhere and what actually looks like a bona fide retreat of the source regions/deep blues therein. 

We'll have to see if this new tenor has legs. It's squarely spring and we're likely to see some continuity issues/irregularities in both individual modeling performance as well as blends. 

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Just now, JC-CT said:

He has 25 more than me. Good luck, bad luck with banding this year. It happens.

The banding certainly has been insane. I mean look at the previous storm we had...the one before last Tuesday...Ridgefield/Newtown closed in on 2'' while here in Danbury (sandwiched between the two towns) we got 16'' lol. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The banding certainly has been insane. I mean look at the previous storm we had...the one before last Tuesday...Ridgefield/Newtown closed in on 2'' while here in Danbury (sandwiched between the two towns) we got 16'' lol. 

The Newtown report was fraud, I believed Ridgefield. You also didnt measure properly, too many keystone lights.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The banding certainly has been insane. I mean look at the previous storm we had...the one before last Tuesday...Ridgefield/Newtown closed in on 2'' while here in Danbury (sandwiched between the two towns) we got 16'' lol. 

I'm actully close to 63" so far here in Newtown and I only measured 15.5" in that storm.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The Newtown report was fraud, I believed Ridgefield. You also didnt measure properly, too many keystone lights.

 

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I'm actully close to 63" so far here in Newtown and I only measured 15.5" in that storm.

ahh so the Newtown report was fraud...that makes sense b/c when I drove there like the day after it didn't seem all that much. I believe the Ridgefield too b/c that band rocked over the for quite some time. 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m thinking this is the last winter storm...that’s what I’m talking about.  

 

If the weekend one comes about..cool, but I’m kind of thinking this one is it.  And I’m hoping it’s a good one for my area.

Ok, except it's still a sh!tty pattern for those hoping for spring weather regardless of snowfall. Sorry.

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in any case ... the next two weeks will probably go down as it usually does at this time of year, where folks are looking around and even rationalizing convincingly a last chance at a final snow and then ... when they weren't looking, the atmosphere had left the room leaving them analyzing nothing.  The Euro creates that sort of cinema pretty well in it's D8 + ... big high settles south in rapidly moderating hemisphere, with even a SE ridge trying to take hold...  we'll see -

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26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The banding certainly has been insane. I mean look at the previous storm we had...the one before last Tuesday...Ridgefield/Newtown closed in on 2'' while here in Danbury (sandwiched between the two towns) we got 16'' lol. 

A regional snow map for the season will be interesting.  It will be laid out in stripes of pretty significant differences instead of totals that fade into each other. 

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