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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker

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4 minutes ago, knglover said:

When do you guys think we see watches start going out?  I guess the real question is..is there agreement on onset time?

Watches? The real question is when the warnings will start going out. 

Here’s hoping for the strongest wave 1 possible and for wave 2 to produce a coastal so we can double our snowfall total for the season at the very least.

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31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Amazing run for your area. It was sideways up here. 6z was 14 hits and 7 misses. 12z is 12 hits and 9 misses but the hits are bigger hits.  It's a right cutoff up here in a lot of the guidance. How confident are you on that last 24 hour push north?  I trust you more with that since your location isn't as reliant on it.

I'm feeling better then I was last night. Euro will have a lot to say though. 

I'm a strong believer that the pac man cutoff is less of a risk in late march than DJF. Precip will find a way to punch further north than what is being shown right now. However, if the entire shield shifts south over the next 3 sets of runs then we can talk fringe. If you are 10 miles away from an agreed upon .75" then expect more than .75. That's what I would be thinking if I lived at your location. 

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

If this holds, probably tonight or early tomorrow for the favored areas.

I should have been more serious. It wouldn’t surprise me if they issued something in the afternoon package, if not then tonight. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, looks good for you guys.  Like I said, it's a far N and W burbs storm on the Euro.   I guess average them together and it's decent.

You will be very happy if the euro is right. Lighter rates come with sub 32 temps...even in your hood...GREAT run with upside. 

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