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March 20-21 Potential - STORM MODE THREAD


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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont follow this dude, but he is hitting at least partly on my concern with how this unfolds. Just too many pieces of energy at h5. The lead wave in the upper levels seems to get stuck over WV, and all the trailing energy gets strung out in a deep, but broad trough. Eventually a coastal low is induced at the surface, but it will probably swing pretty far offshore as it is developing. This is some sort of a hybrid miller B, and I think the latest runs are revealing the "in between" dead zone. Hope I am wrong, but right now I am not thrilled with the look.

Agreed. The system started to unravel as modeled once if came onshore the west coast with multiple vorts running loose. The key is how quickly those pieces can gel again as it moves east.  The better model runs have that happening sooner than later.

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I'm not going to make it up for the Euro, but RGEM ensemble mean is the best I've seen it all year.  Below is qpf as snow and total qpf.  Please keep in mind that for many of us ratios will likely be poor for the qpf labeled "snow".

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mVgPwUu.png

 

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EC is more amped for sure with the second wave, but for us along and east of 95, in this scenario we may be waiting well after 00Z Wed before we'd finally flip to snow (check out that strong easterly 850 flow before the low gets off the coast).

But, this would also spell more CCB snows after 12Z Wed as well. Ratios higher than 5-7 to 1 are tough to get after 14-15Z this time of year around here unless the rates are crazy. Would love for this to play out a good 6 hours earlier ;)

20180319_021535.png

Screenshot_20180319-021434.jpg

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

We just got named with a slow moving bomb Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet.

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Euro verbatim for DC: Rain would begin early Tuesday morning with temperatures near 40.  Surface and 850 hPa temperatures dropping through morning to mid 30s by noon with ~0.5" of rain before letting up in early afternoon.  Light drizzle through the afternoon into the overnight hours with temperatures hovering in low to mid 30s.  850 temperatures plummet overnight with surface temperatures cooperating by morning.  Flurries Wednesday morning changing to moderate snow by mid-morning before ending early evening ~0.4" falls with cooperative temperatures. 

Just one solution. 

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah NAM has a pretty nice CCB like the Euro. Hope the models are locking in on the coastal development/location, because thats the heavy snow producer for most. Much of what falls prior to that is rain/sleet/slop for many. Out your way you will do better with the lead stuff although still probably some sleet.

12K and 3K are a hairs breadth away from something special for the balt/dc corridor. At this point the 500's are lagging just a touch behind so we see the Del Marva get the brunt of the coastal. Just 3 hours quicker on the capture closer to the coast and the 95 corridor probably scores big (temps allowing).

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12K and 3K are a hairs breadth away from something special for the balt/dc corridor. At this point the 500's are lagging just a touch behind so we see the Del Marva get the brunt of the coastal. Just 3 hours quicker on the capture closer to the coast and the 95 corridor probably scores big (temps allowing).

Yep still lots of small details to be resolved with all the embedded shortwave energy. Latest NAM and the Euro really show the potential for a high impact event with the coastal for at least parts of the region though.

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