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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

We'll meet in the middle. The 5ppd is going back after the storm. Have at it James, but don't go too crazy. lol

USCAPEWEATHERAF
USCAPEWEATHERAF

Lol you know, why can't moderators take me off the weenie list now?  I behaved, this is the one storm I have been waiting for, let me be free

dendrite
dendrite

dendrite's heart grew 3 sizes that day

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d like to see the euro bump west at 00z to be truly confident in at least a low end warning here.

the gfs shifting towards a garbage solution doesn’t really mean much. It flops around a lot

I didn’t think gfs was garbage especially if you check out mid levels.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

How many years have you been around? At least 5 , would think by now........

Long time lurker, great job everyone with some amazing analysis, what do people think about this Monday and Tuesday for snow? I have a snow plow business and I am wondering what to expect.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

I’m not so interested in what you think. I’m not used to looking for GEFS model output and it was an honest question. 

Wait let me get this straight. You own a snowplow business. Have read these pages for a decade and dont know where to find GEFS maps. Ok try here wx.graphics.com 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yes...but >75% Euro and 25%???

I really don't think people understand what I mean by save a horse.  What I do is use EPS progs as a guide and use as much as learned experience as I can. Analogs to prior setups, hemispheric teleconnections and known bias. I don't blend 72 hrs out.

 

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ncforecaster89

ncforecaster89

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Logan11 said:

10 or 12 inches in mid March would have been considered a crushing before the generation that experienced such a large cluster of KU storms.

 

Very true I'm sure for many who weren't around for the March blizzards/big snow storms of the late fifties and early sixties (myself included prior to research); especially the epic blizzards in 1956 and 1960.  In meteorology, one can be sure history is destined to repeat itself.   That era (relative to March climatology) is similar to our current period of the past 6 years or so.     

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I really don't think people understand what I mean by save a horse.  What I do is use EPS progs as a guide and use as much as learned experience as I can. Analogs to prior setups, hemispheric teleconnections and known bias. I don't blend 72 hrs out.

 

Was not meant to disparage your methods.  Right now I don’t have faith in many models other than the Euro so I’m not sure what I would blend with.   I used to think a 70/20/10 Euro/GFS/NAM would be ok but sheesh at the models this winter

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ursa99

ursa99

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't believe the GFS 18z run gets the full compliment of data,... and is in part initialized off the first 6 hourly solution of the 12z guidance to fill any holes in the initialization.

That was the case up through 5 years ago - Walter Drag told me that some four or five years ago.  Not sure if that's till the case.. 

IF so,  ...that makes it about as good as any other ensemble member; granted, that doesn't mean things can't exactly evolve, but the problem is, the 12z was really only step two along a trend - so it appears. That means that the holes were plugged by a solution in flux to begin with...

Somewhere in that complexity exists the notion not to trust this solution is really in keeping with said trend because it's based on a melange of estimates and computations combined.

If it gets the full compliment of original and unique sampling... I still wouldn't be certain that as the mechanics enters the NW Territory from out of the Alaska sector ...if it's just not temporarily lost a bit. 

I'm still putting money on the biggest threat being SE zones... but also would not be shocked if this till gets farther NW in the end.

"Is the GFS model really worse than the ECMWF?" OK, I went there. Forecasters amateur and professional have long-claimed the U.S. GFS model was more inaccurate than the ECWMF. The graph above proves it, and it is the basis for the business model of the ECWMF's institution, which sells the data at exorbitant prices (the GFS data is free -- a quarter of a million dollars will buy you the rights to use redistribute the ECMWF 25-day forecast, but not their weekly or monthly forecasts which go as far as a year out). Although that makes for a compelling reason to keep their secrets to themselves, they have recently started working with the U.S. government to help determine what's wrong with the GFS.

Last month, a breakthrough was discovered: When the GFS is run with the ECWMF Initialization data (see above), the accuracy improves dramatically (you can read the AMS presentation here). Unfortunately, implementing that is not as easy as you'd think - outside of the cost of using the ECWMF data, it only runs twice a day, so the GFS would no longer be able to run at 06Z & 18Z (midnight & noon). I suppose one other option is that we fix our initialization data, but I haven't heard much about that option taking shape. It would probably be a big undertaking. In any case, I'm thrilled that we now know what's wrong with the GFS.

Separate from the model accuracy, there is a movement afoot, headed by the American Meteorological Society (AMS as mentioned above) and involving our Elliot Abrams (PREMIUM | PRO), to make weather forecasts (derived from those models) better and more user-friendly. Elliot is co-chairing the unit with Dr. Paul Hirschberg, chief of staff to NOAA National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes. I believe this work is very important and you can read about their ideas and progress in an AMS report here.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Why the European Weather Model Remains King Over National Weather Service's Prediction Tool

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/European-Weather-Model-National-Weather-Service-365163381.html

 

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