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March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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There's so much to talk about where ... where does one begin...

I was just looping the 500 mb wind/vorticity evolution as provided by the 06z RGEM run, and I have to say...that would result, I believe, in a truly historic situation.

Like a lot of big systems of lore and annul, that system would likely stall when that capture sequencing completes ... perhaps along our just E of Cape Cod.  From there, heaving bands of snow would beginning punch SW across SNE and would effectively back down into the upper M/A... If you go back and look at other notable subsume type phasing (and probably 1888 could be included in that... as well as 1978 ... and so others that did similarly but were less note-worthy for having less impact), that is common result; areas from PHL-LGA cash in off these backward pushing arcs of snow that with strong N flow and mid level "magic" ...they end up doing pretty well. 

If I lived in that area, I would keep tuned into this thing, ...because should the more proficient phase (which these runs are coming in more and more in favor of...), then we get into a concern that down in N NJ and NYC and also Albany ... those regions could get advisory if not low end warning wrap-back snows.  I could just see this whole thing correcting toward a more whole-scale inclusion of regions if this trend toward more total phase continues.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Isn't it great racking up the frequent flyer miles for free trips you have no desire to go on because you just want to be home when the work trips are done?

Ahhh yes that happens sometimes.  I hate to miss biggies though.  Need a back up plan for this one I think.  I once sacrificed 5K for a storm...Jan 96 in Philly.  Worth every penny.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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10 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

I got mocked for mentioning the JMA last night..  I kind of put Icon in the same boat, but since it's already been brought up in the 12 model suite, 12z Icon looks interesting.. Nice stream interaction going on here, if not a bit late for those of us not in ENE:

 

Yup... right down the line of them... More aggressive N/steam notable at 24 hours ... parlays to way more proficiency off the M/A latitudes and then carries onward from there... 

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Semper911

Semper911

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35 minutes ago, Weenie said:

Thanks for the warm welcome! I tried to make my username topical. 

 

Anyway, the 3k NAM shows a very deep system but its a little farther east and a giant mess. I don't think any model has a handle on phasing yet 

Welcome. I can’t believe we don’t already named Weenie haha. Lurk and learn. And don’t forget to post your obs during storms. 

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