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stormtracker

March 11-12 Potential Storm

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, way to much lead time. Boxing day was perfectly timed to ruin Christmas. 

Top 5 I think - noteworthy. In the context of the winter and no sane person expects snow here after March 20th.

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This roller coaster is making me sick. I want to get off.  Someone please add a vomit emoji for next winter. :lol: 

I’m guessing 0z will help us all laser focus on what will actually occur with this storm...says Dr. Blatantly Frickin Obvious.

Yes. I add nothing of value here. I know. Don’t remind me. Now off to my Boca burger and beer. 

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The storm has plenty of juice. Every member has a big swath of 1-2"+ qpf. You have to admit that even though there are 10 disasters, the perfectly placed precp holes on them is pretty comical. 

Mpvtl6U.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

One of the most disastrous runs in the history of this weather forum

Chill out Ji.... We are still 90 hours away from show time. The models are still struggling with all the elements and they probably will until Saturday. Get todays storm circulation out of the way, suppression will be less and we will be fine. OOz or 12z may smile on your backyard.

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. I was saying earlier today we need either a full phase early or the strongest southern vort we can get. If I had to bet money I think we still see snow out of this one. 

Kinda feels like...we will either miss or get crushed. No in between, lol

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17 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think 18z GGEM looks better at the h5 level?  Or am I mistaken?  When looking at hr 84 that is 

18z GGEM at 84 h5

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_084_0500.gif

 

12z GGEM at 90 h5

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_090_0500.gif

 

I am talking about the h5 energy that looks to be stronger in the WY/ID region... is that better for us?  Or does it not really matter?

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Kinda feels like...we will either miss or get crushed. No in between, lol

That's not a bad place to be in March on a Sunday. I'd rather no precip at all so I can get outside than a day of light snow that isn't sticking, or an inch of slop.

 

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It would not surprise me if gfs continues to suppress it tonight,  and euro pastes us, then eventually,  they both meet in the middle and end up with 6". Hoping the euro comes around since I seem to remember in past years, someone saying the euro handles Miller a's the best....

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36 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z GGEM at 84 h5

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_084_0500.gif

 

12z GGEM at 90 h5

QQ_GZ_UU_VV_090_0500.gif

 

I am talking about the h5 energy that looks to be stronger in the WY/ID region... is that better for us?  Or does it not really matter?

I think I like the look of the 6z better..

psychedelic-pattern.jpg?quality=80&strip

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

You a betting man Bob?

I'm divided on this one. I can see both sides pretty clearly and we have a lot of time for things to lock in big or slide quietly south. My hunch says we don't get whiffed. It's a juicy storm and more often than not we see heights out in front of storms tick higher as leads shorten. Even though the gfs shifted south there's still plenty of juice and it's not weak. Odds say that it will probably find a way to come north but mentally prepared for a disaster. lol

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ji will like this meteo. HECS or bust all the way

SvHA45K.jpg 

Yep, all or nothing.  A couple-inch paste-job in mid-march after a horrid DJF is as about as rewarding as your fantasy RB scoring a late-game Monday Night TD when your are down by 40 points.  I mean, the points might be useful as end-of-season tie-breaker, but likely just meaningless stats.  Give me a big storm to make this winter relevant, or just give me my usual partly cloudy and get on with the countdown to Fall.

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ji will like this meteo. HECS or bust all the way

SvHA45K.jpg 

I'm telling ya...that's what it might come down too! I'd actually be a little surprised if we saw something in between, lol

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ian

I felt the way I do about my concerns before the 18z run. But I should remember some freak out over every good of bad thing they see and explain.

I still think this is the best setup we have had since 2016. Of course we haven't had a warning event since then either so how much is that saying. But I do think this is a good shot. 

But I have reservations that keep me from going all in and thinking the big storm option is likely. It's very possible and a high possibility imo. But I have more reservations now then I did 5 days before the dec 2009 or feb 2010 or Jan 2016 HECS events. Those instances were somewhat similar on the macro level globally but the flow acros eastern Conus was slightly less suppressive imo. Plus the stj was kicking those instances. I trusted we would get a healthy wave that could bully things a bit and cause enough ridging in front to start the chain reaction we need for an amplified solution. 

Now those are the 3 best blocking pattern storms since 1996 so saying I think this setup is slightly less favorable then those isn't that bad either. Sometimes when I say a positive thing it's as if I just guaranteed snow and when I say I have a fear or reservation it means I threw in the towel. I still like this setup. I'm just not ready to go all in like i was in those other instances from range. 

I'm being a little too nonchalant about it maybe. It's March and I live in DC so if it fails it fails. Plus for some reason every now and then I 'feel' these things and can't let go. It doesn't always end in victory. 

There are a number of concerns.. I just wouldn't put the 18z GFS high on the list. 

It is a bit unfortunate we found this pattern so late and in a Nina. But it is a silly good look in the higher latitudes. In a lot of ways it is close to classic. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The storm has plenty of juice. Every member has a big swath of 1-2"+ qpf. You have to admit that even though there are 10 disasters, the perfectly placed precp holes on them is pretty comical. 

Mpvtl6U.jpg

So even though it has plenty of juice...that juice doesn't ramp up quickly enough to push through the flatter flow as PSU was stating...it's a miss? Ack...would be kinda painful to fail that way, but at least by 48 hours we would know if that were an issue or not...(would rather know a fail inside this range than get close up and miss)

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2 minutes ago, Ian said:

I'm being a little too nonchalant about it maybe. It's March and I live in DC so if it fails it fails. Plus for some reason every now and then I 'feel' these things and can't let go. It doesn't always end in victory. 

There are a number of concerns.. I just wouldn't put the 18z GFS high on the list. 

It is a bit unfortunate we found this pattern so late and in a Nina. But it is a silly good look in the higher latitudes. In a lot of ways it is close to classic. 

A "number of concerns"? What else besides what PSU mentioned?

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1 minute ago, Ian said:

I'm being a little too nonchalant about it maybe. It's March and I live in DC so if it fails it fails. Plus for some reason every now and then I 'feel' these things and can't let go. It doesn't always end in victory. 

There are a number of concerns.. I just wouldn't put the 18z GFS high on the list. 

It is a bit unfortunate we found this pattern so late and in a Nina. But it is a silly good look in the higher latitudes. In a lot of ways it is close to classic. 

I admire your focus and value your feedback. Thanks for posting. I hope it works out for us. I feel there is a lot of potential, just burned so many times this winter so far. Change might be in the air.   

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So even though it has plenty of juice...that juice doesn't ramp up quickly enough to push through the flatter flow as PSU was stating...it's a miss? Ack...would be kinda painful to fail that way, but at least by 48 hours we would know if that were an issue or not...(would rather know a fail inside this range than get close up and miss)

It's the upper level steering flow and confluence to the north that's the issue. Look at this panel. The "downhill" look to the isobars and due west flow block the storm from gaining latitude. It acts like a wall. The storm can drop 100 feet of rain and it won't make any difference. The upper level winds and heights act like lanes of a highway for storms to track. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I think Ian might be comparing the gefs to the op and your comparing it to the 12z gefs which is what I would do for trends. That's the only think I can think of to explain his comment. 

I honestly don't put that much stock in qpf comparison because it's fairly low skill and we're taking the mean of nothing and a lot in many cases here... so in this case I was just comparing the sfc locations and upper level locations. As noted it was more apparent north.. the track looked quite similar prior. Looking back I can see that QPF is lower but again I am not sure that matters all that much.  

j3POXIG.gif

 

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

A "number of concerns"? What else besides what PSU mentioned?

Well it's like March 12 or 11 or something which might as well by June here.. except March is the new winter in the 2010s.  I'd like a better high to the north.. I mostly have to imagine one. The air mass is decent and we have seen more high north in close than initial.  I'd rather have a pure southern stream, and a Nino. I'd maybe rather not have that wave diving in through the lakes the way it does. There's probably more. There are plenty of positives, chief among them a historically significant loading pattern. But around here it often comes down to how many mistakes we can make with a storm and still get snow. There is less leeway than our typically bad leeway this time of year. 

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Following up on what Ian and Bob just said:

Looking at the 12z guidance, it really is all about the orientation of the trough and the timing/location of the upper level energy. The Canadian/European model were fairly similar in holding back the upper level low in the Plains, which caused the orientation of the trough to be more positive. This causes the surface low to get its act together a little later, and therefore be a slightly weaker storm, further to the south with later strengthening compared to the GFS. the GFS shows the upper level energy rounding the trough quicker, with the trough going more neutral or even negative. This allows for our disturbance to strengthen more rapidly and give us that 12z result.

Look below at the images, because the difference between the Canadian/Euro and GFS is pretty notable.

12z Euro

image.png.8a033ee9c23bc731e87b8b1f742d072c.png

12z Canadian

image.png.0d58a10e7e922f4c5dadf8e8e1437a88.png

12z GFS

image.png.026c107a96809d85bc35666265c2d181.png

 

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One of the main question is will it amplify coming up the coast or simply scoot ene. In theory, a better tuck farther up is good for everyone.. unless it does the loop around DC and snow on everyone else. In which case we ****ing suck. 

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3 minutes ago, Shane M. said:

Following up on what Ian and Bob just said:

Looking at the 12z guidance, it really is all about the orientation of the trough and the timing/location of the upper level energy. The Canadian/European model were fairly similar in holding back the upper level low in the Plains, which caused the orientation of the trough to be more positive. This causes the surface low to get its act together a little later, and therefore be a slightly weaker storm, further to the south with later strengthening compared to the GFS. the GFS shows the upper level energy rounding the trough quicker, with the trough going more neutral or even negative. This allows for our disturbance to strengthen more rapidly and give us that 12z result.

Look below at the images, because the difference between the Canadian/Euro and GFS is pretty notable.

12z Euro

12z Canadian

12z GFS

 

This is a good analysis I think. This pattern and the lead in to this storm seems to argue for amplification up the coast but the seasonal pattern perhaps the other option. I have no real confidence except I love a good pattern so I think I give it some feels. Jan 30 2010 has been on CIPS as well although I am not sure it was on 12z.  

Who can think of the last time we had a suppression problem with a wave diving out of the northern tier in March. 

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12 minutes ago, Ian said:

I honestly don't put that much stock in qpf comparison because it's fairly low skill and we're taking the mean of nothing and a lot in many cases here... so in this case I was just comparing the sfc locations and upper level locations. As noted it was more apparent north.. the track looked quite similar prior. Looking back I can see that QPF is lower but again I am not sure that matters all that much.  

j3POXIG.gif

 

I hasn't even noticed that later in the run the 18z gefs does end up a bit inside the 12z. I was looking at earlier panels to compare like hour 96 where 12z had the low in southeast TN and 18z is near Atlanta. Enough members must be hooking it around up the coast like the op. But I doubt that does us any good. We need this to come at us from the south west not the south. Let's not even entertain the idea of a Boxing Day style suppression with a late phase and turn to crush NYC to Boston. Lol. It's all just noise though the differences were minor imo. 

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4 minutes ago, Ian said:

This is a good analysis I think. This pattern and the lead in to this storm seems to argue for amplification up the coast but the seasonal pattern perhaps the other option. I have no real confidence except I love a good pattern so I think I give it some feels. Jan 30 2010 has been on CIPS as well although I am not sure it was on 12z.  

Who can think of the last time we had a suppression problem with a wave diving out of the northern tier in March. 

The words suppression and March don't seem to go together period, lol But you'd think with back-to-back nor-easters that have happened in the past week...you'd think it would favor a more up the coast track (or perhaps that's just wishful thinking based in no logic whatsoever, lol)

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hasn't even noticed that later in the run the 18z gefs does end up a bit inside the 12z. I was looking at earlier panels to compare like hour 96 where 12z had the low in southeast TN and 18z is near Atlanta. Enough members must be hooking it around up the coast like the op. But I doubt that does us any good. We need this to come at us from the south west not the south. Let's not even entertain the idea of a Boxing Day style suppression with a late phase and turn to crush NYC to Boston. Lol. It's all just noise though the differences were minor imo. 

I am not a huge fan of that wave diving into the lakes the way it is.. the angle is such that it acts to either try to shunt it or wrap it into New England after missing us. I don't think it's a coincidence some of the top analogs were almost entirely north of us for good snow in recent days, despite the various southern looks. 

I see what you are saying now earlier as well.. I did not look that close at that time frame. I think some is timing differences, although there are some small shifts as well. Even with the shift it's actually on the northern envelope for that area with our big ones, although there is certainly question as to what kind of slope it will travel from there.  

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The words suppression and March don't seem to go together period, lol But you'd think with back-to-back nor-easters that have happened in the past week...you'd think it would favor a more up the coast track (or perhaps that's just wishful thinking based in no logic whatsoever, lol)

Its about high latitude blocking and the two back to back nor'easters that you reference. 

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10 minutes ago, Ian said:

I am not a huge fan of that wave diving into the lakes the way it is.. the angle is such that it acts to either try to shunt it or wrap it into New England after missing us. I don't think it's a coincidence some of the top analogs were almost entirely north of us for good snow in recent days, despite the various southern looks. 

I see what you are saying now earlier as well.. I did not look that close at that time frame. I think some is timing differences, although there are some small shifts as well. Even with the shift it's actually on the northern envelope for that area with our big ones, although there is certainly question as to what kind of slope it will travel from there.  

You know comparing 12z and 18z that wave dives in across Ontario on 18z vs Michigan at 12z. The further west dive 12z allows it to ride up the east side and phase it. The trajectory 18z presses it east until it's on the east side of the trough which 18z is ots for our purposes then captures and pulls it into New England 

This is a Nina. And ninas are filled with blocking fails just like that so obviously that's a concern. But we did also have 1996 in a Nina so it doesn't have to go that way. 

We need that wave to dive in west of us not on top of us though. I think that's a key I was missing or not giving enough importance too. I was looking at earlier parts of the puzzle but that factor could act to slingshot this out and around us if it does dive in on top of us like that. Ugh. 

Thanks you added one more thing to worry about lol. 

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