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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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duncanwxnh

duncanwxnh

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

My general thinking is that if you're confident enough to drop a warning to an advisory, then you probably weren't confident enough to issue a warning in the first place. 

I issued warnings much earlier than I normally would last night, because I thought even if parts of my coast mixed for a time that once the heavy lift and change back to snow occurred 6+ looked like a solid bet. Now I'm sure we would catch a lot of flak in SE NH if someone doesn't get 12", but I issued the warning based on 6+ and the totals I was forecasting at the time represented my most educated guess. 

Nothing wrong with that. I had a team out there evaluating damage yesterday and we've had a lot of things damaged. 3,6,12 inches shouldn't matter out there. Still in recovery mode and the most gentle of storms will hurt. BTW, if you happen to find our sand let me know. (Too soon to say but it 'looks' like we lost a bunch) Frequently, educated guess, is all we have left. Well done :-)

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, duncanwxnh said:

Nothing wrong with that. I had a team out there evaluating damage yesterday and we've had a lot of things damaged. 3,6,12 inches shouldn't matter out there. Still in recovery mode and the most gentle of storms will hurt. BTW, if you happen to find our sand let me know. (Too soon to say but it 'looks' like we lost a bunch) Frequently, educated guess, is all we have left. Well done :-)

I'm pretty sure we had crews out measuring dune loss with the last event. The beach profiles should drop quite a few feet.

I know the people interviewed about the Revolutionary era shipwreck uncovered at Short Sands Beach say it's typically buried in 6-7 feet of sand to protect it. 

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duncanwxnh

duncanwxnh

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm pretty sure we had crews out measuring dune loss with the last event. The beach profiles should drop quite a few feet.

I know the people interviewed about the Revolutionary era shipwreck uncovered at Short Sands Beach say it's typically buried in 6-7 feet of sand to protect it. 

Have a couple of shots of dune loss. I lived on Cape Cod for years and even at this age (shhh) I still find it fascinating :-)

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no clue what to do.

Perhaps a 3-6” call in BOS itself? Seems like they should be able to verify the low end even if guidance is a bit too gung-ho on the SE ticks, and the high end seems doable with the overnight runs? Nightmare situation forecasting for the most populated parts of the region. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WintersComing said:


I think 3-6 at least. I’d through GFS in the garbage with this storm. Euro never gets 925s close to Boston.


.

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

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WintersComing

WintersComing

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They will be marginal in the final 1000ft. And probably not go below 33 for many hours. Plus, relying on dynamics. So, 3-6 is a good start on the water there I think, but obviously worried it could be more. I could see western parts of the city double that. If I use 950Tw, they most certainly are snow on the NAM this evening and overnight. 

Ya it's a ****ty call no doubt.  Start with a reasonable amount with a big freakin caveat saying could be considerably more?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The GFS just won't relent. Continues to warm the boundary layer, even after dark, almost right through 06z. The NAM just holds at 33 like you say. 

Sell the thermal profiles. BUt on the water...tough to go balls to wall. However, if I lived near 128...We pound. 

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