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Typhoon Tip

Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

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Anyone that can answer this,

What do we need to look for to get this thing to go full phase. A combo of the s/w backing in out of Canada interacting with the n/s LP?

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Still snowing on Saturday morning for the interior mountains though on the EPS mean.

The same EPS mean you told me has given you 300 inches this year?

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

If tippy jinx two in one week, Tippy won't get a crack at a third..........;)

Can you imagine if I really possessed that much power...  ho-ho man.  Muah hahahahaha.

NOoooo snow for you, ONE YEAR!

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The same EPS mean you told me has given you 300 inches this year?

Yeah the 15 day progs we were talking about, yes.  They default to climo.  But on a shorter time frame they do seem to have more use.

Like we talked about... every 15 day mean is pink with snow in the mountains, hills and interior.  Every single time.  Sometimes it does work out, but I'm telling you if you looked at these maps for every two week period, the interior would be getting 1-2 feet every two weeks all winter long.

 

eps_snow_m_neng_61.png

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you imagine if I really possessed that much power...  ho-ho man.  Muah hahahahaha.

NOoooo snow for you, ONE YEAR!

lol, This one looks pretty solid at this point, Just the final track details need to be worked out.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, This one looks pretty solid at this point, Just the final track details need to be worked out.

On Saturday? Careful

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For CT - Snow breaks out overnight Tue, snows all day Wed, and has departing shots early Thur. Thats 3 calendar days folks..... three. 

I'll give you 18 of those hours ... not "3 calendar days days days"  

haha. j/k, but I'm see most models qpf product ...okay cloudy with snizzles between 12z and 18z then snow over spreads SW to NE 18z onward ... and it wraps up mid morning Thursday.

However, this is all subject to change... Namely, if more of that phasing gets done that would slow this down further and also change the landscape in other ways..

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The GEFS is in full lock mode with this thing right now. Just reviewed the 18z and it shifted the LP ever so slightly westward, but still has it south/southwest of Nantucket at 108 and to the east of the Cape by hr 114. It has been leading the way imo on this event for some time.

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, This one looks pretty solid at this point, Just the final track details need to be worked out.

I still want to get a cycle or two more of the Euro involved before I get a bit more confident that we won't see a more proficient phasing... That product I annotated that shows how close that is to getting the deed done .. a little too close for comfort.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Euro EPS individuals are certainly interesting... there are a fair amount of members that clobber upstate NY again with less in New England.  Definitely more of those than whiffs on the 12z run... with the spread more west than east.

Enough of them with jacks from the Catskills to Adirondacks to really affect the mean with heavy snows way west of where you would think given the operational runs.

 

I am a huge anti-fan of those snow total products.... That said, there is value in the general question re how this system would affect the elevations.

Firstly, where/what/when there is any snow contention with rain in this sort of synoptic evolution for areas less than ~ 1,000 k , there is none above that level. 

Secondly, this system will probably have banding and blobs of snow west of the cyclonic arc .. just due to the fact that it's a negative tilted system rollin' up the east side, where as a general mid and upper level cold heights region of the atmosphere pervades everywhere. Its offering ample instability tapped by local effects having to do with terrain/upsloping... ... oh geez what a list.   Thing is, these "blobs" will accumulate snow prodigiously on summit tops like an overstuffed souffle. Plus, as is, the circumvallate of the system increases markedly as it's passing abeam of New England ... involving even N VT in pressure pattern as it passes by. There's upslope from the E combined with deformation band potential if we're dumb enough to use the mean as gospel right now.. but should it evolve that way. Then, the trough swings by and then you get a NW upslope going for a bit late in the week.  

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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

On Saturday? Careful

Agreed.  You were big on that in the last storm and you were correct... slam dunking at high lead time is not a good move.

Dryslot knows this though. 

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37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For CT - Snow breaks out overnight Tue, snows all day Wed, and has departing shots early Thur. That’s 3 calendar days folks..... three. 

And 1-2 tomorrow night to wet the tip

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I am a huge anti-fan of those snow total products.... That said, there is value in the general question re how this system would affect the elevations.

Firstly, where/what/when there is any snow contention with rain in this sort of synoptic evolution for areas less than ~ 1,000 k , there is none above that level. 

Secondly, this system will probably have banding and blobs of snow west of the cyclonic arc .. just due to the fact that it's a negative tilted system rollin' up the east side, where as a general mid and upper level cold heights region of the atmosphere pervades everywhere. Its offering ample instability tapped by local effects having to do with terrain/upsloping... ... oh geez what a list.   Thing is, these "blobs" will accumulate snow prodigiously on summit tops like an overstuffed souffle. Plus, as is, the circumvallate of the system increases markedly as it's passing abeam of New England ... involving even N VT in pressure pattern as it passes by. There's upslope from the E combined with deformation band potential if we're dumb enough to use the mean as gospel right now.. but should it evolve that way. Then, the trough swings by and then you get a NW upslope going for a bit late in the week.  

I think everyone is on the same page with snow maps.... we just post them as it is the quickest way to get an overall feel for how a model run went with respect to snow lovers.  They could be dead wrong but often they are correct in at least highlighting the areas that are at risk.  Sometimes they over-do it or under-do it but in the end, its a very quick one-frame summary of a model run.   Even a one-frame snapshot of surface low pressure is nice but every storm that tracks in a given location can spread precip/lift/uvvs 100 different ways in terms of intensity and reach outward, so the snow map just gives the very simple run down of where the model would think you should start looking for snows.  You then dig deeper to see what the overall picture looks like.

But meteorology isn't as easy as a one-frame summary, and its definitely a "dumbing down" of the science when it gets relegated to one simple product, so I think most understand the general discontent with those products.  And really, a snow map is essentially a QPF map in a lot of cases. 

Good synopsis too BTW.

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Can you imagine if I really possessed that much power...  ho-ho man.  Muah hahahahaha.

NOoooo snow for you, ONE YEAR!

Thursday is my birthday.  My happiness solely rests in your hands, Mr. Tip!

 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

For whom?

Maybe im snake bitten from this last event, but I wouldn’t be locking anything in for anyone at this point. As is, a fair number of posters have mix issues on the gfs. Euro was better, but we know how that goes.

5 days away is a long time.

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8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe im snake bitten from this last event, but I wouldn’t be locking anything in for anyone at this point. As is, a fair number of posters have mix issues on the gfs. Euro was better, but we know how that goes.

5 days away is a long time.

Well at least we won’t be 60 the day before the event this time.  Man I should have known better!

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14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe im snake bitten from this last event, but I wouldn’t be locking anything in for anyone at this point. As is, a fair number of posters have mix issues on the gfs. Euro was better, but we know how that goes.

5 days away is a long time.

The storm is practically over for sne by then. Its 4 days and the leading edge of precip is actually around 3 days, 18z Tue, down the delmarva. I get the hesitations but each setup is different. The ULL is already onshore in the west coast while the northern sw is chillin in hudson bay proggred to down drop in 2 days. 

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe im snake bitten from this last event, but I wouldn’t be locking anything in for anyone at this point. As is, a fair number of posters have mix issues on the gfs. Euro was better, but we know how that goes.

5 days away is a long time.

Gfs has it starting in 90 hours.. Which is 3 days 18 hours :)

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If you loop the h5 vort look in the NA region you can see how we have confluence with the northern sw breaking off in hudson bay at the tail end and it basically guides the ull from the upper midwest while the sw drops into the backside. While complex in theory, because weather is...I do not see this being an overly wild or swingy evolution where models will waver drastically. Obviously big hits after big hits in your backyard wont happen but the goalposts are not that wide, at this lead time, as we would typically see. IMO. 

I like where we are at d4. Very Intruiged and cautiously optmistic.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Steve was on the snow train like I was.

I wasn't thinking of the forecasts but more I remember several posts from Ginxy talking about how much things can change in the day 3-5 period...just keep it in check type stuff when it was still way out past NAM range.

 

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2 hours ago, dryslot said:

987mb right over the elbow on the 18z GFS.

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I like that alot, Ideal would be about 50-75 miles east of there for the coastal peeps.

Works for me--I'll even take that at Pit2.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol.. BOX goes OH Girl all over us introducing rain for many. We toss 

How'd BOX do with the totals yesterday?

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I wasn't thinking of the forecasts but more I remember several posts from Ginxy talking about how much things can change in the day 3-5 period...just keep it in check type stuff when it was still way out past NAM range.

 

Yes until I caved. Next time skeptical until go time. Hey nice vort max Sunday night Monday wonder if that is a surprise 

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