Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Maximum northward penetration of 0C 925 line:

I’ll roll the dice with that look. It was a small tick cooler, but it improved. 

Euro argues for like 8-10” of paste here. Well see what happens

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Scooter will be like a kid on Xmas morning . Nice

Ready for power outages 

[TheSnowman]

Mark Searles is at it again.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’ll roll the dice with that look. It was a small tick cooler, but it improved. 

Euro argues for like 8-10” of paste here. Well see what happens

lol back to your reasonable self. premature melting ftw...squeeky crying baby wheel gets the grease. 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Mark Searles is at it again.  

That's one of the worst maps i have ever seen. 

[wxsniss]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hey now, GYX doesn't have to scramble amounts up this morning! 

Lol for sure... GYX had a good hit along (and obviously was not living on the edge like eastern SNE) 

But BOX (as several others commented) had an extremely tough forecast and now will have to revert back to the map they had Monday... Tuesday's map has 2" for Boston

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Have to count for the mood snows til Saturday:

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Lol for sure... GYX had a good hit along (and obviously was not living on the edge like eastern SNE) 

But BOX (as several others commented) had an extremely tough forecast and now will have to revert back to the map they had Monday... Tuesday's map has 2" for Boston

I don't love the messaging involved with dropping a warning to an advisory (Cape Ann) before the snow even starts flying. I don't think it was so high confidence that they original warning could be dropped. I probably would have just rode the warning and introduced some mixed wording to the zone.

[ice1972]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Lol for sure... GYX had a good hit along (and obviously was not living on the edge like eastern SNE) 

But BOX (as several others commented) had an extremely tough forecast and now will have to revert back to the map they had Monday... Tuesday's map has 2" for Boston

 

BOX should read this thread.....seriously....that 2:51 pm map was awful

[8611Blizz]

One of the practical problems of this current forecast is that most cities haven't declared snow emergencies and they typically have to give most people 12 hours before a storm to move cars.  Many pissed off plow drivers negotiating crowded streets today...

[Greg]

I'll see you guys in the morning.  Should be very interesting around these parts.  By the way, just for laughs, I took a quick look at the HRR and RAP for trends;  It looks like the center is pretty off shore to me.  Good night.

[geo1]

No obs thread that I can see. But it's coming down nicely in Wilmington.

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Take my totals up and i’ll go to first base.

FINAL CALL:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/guidance-congeals-on-heavy-boston-snows.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nothing wrong with that Euro run. If anything the mid levels are a hair west.

Looked the same to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Widespread 12-20" range it is for southern NH. Lollis up to 24". 

Good night. 

Wow...read my mind.

[wxsniss]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't love the messaging involved with dropping a warning to an advisory (Cape Ann) before the snow even starts flying. I don't think it was so high confidence that they original warning could be dropped. I probably would have just rode the warning and introduced some mixed wording to the zone.

I'm in no position to pass any criticism on experts far more knowledgeable and experienced... this was obviously an extremely tough forecast (and still has to verify), and I myself was sweating with my own Boston 6-10 forecast to co-workers, so I can only imagine the stress involved in widely public forecasts for much larger areas.

But there was a bit of a windshield wiper effect with the BOX maps chasing model consensus the past 2 days... I wonder if that could have been avoided with less frequent updates or waiting until closer? Fortunately, I doubt the public is as aware of this as we are. And I don't know of a single TV forecaster (Harv included) who had this correct (again, still has to verify).

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looked the same to me.

Yeah, toggling back and forth it truly is a hair west. Which is fine by me, sets up ever so slightly better to get the strongest forcing well placed in my forecast area. 

[ice1972]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

FINAL CALL:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/guidance-congeals-on-heavy-boston-snows.html

Love the write up brother but your arrows are making me insane.....#MorchSnows

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...read my mind.

The only thing i disagree with is more snow for coastal SW CT then the hills of NW CT, which is an area, for the most part, above 1000ft. I think if the SW coast verifies 12-20, which is certainly possible, the NW hills do just as well. I can't really remember a time that wasn't true, except for the obvious qpf paltry scrape jobs, which this is not. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

FINAL CALL:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/guidance-congeals-on-heavy-boston-snows.html

Cautiously optmistic the high numbers can be attained. Nice.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, toggling back and forth it truly is a hair west. Which is fine by me, sets up ever so slightly better to get the strongest forcing well placed in my forecast area. 

Must be negligible.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The only thing i disagree with is more snow for coastal SW CT then the hills of NW CT, which is an area, for the most part, above 1000ft. I think if the SW coast verifies 12-20, which is certainly possible, the NW hills do just as well. I can't really remember a time that wasn't true, except for the obvious qpf paltry scrape jobs, which this is not. 

Its because of the mid levels, not the low levels.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obs thread:

 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I'm in no position to pass any criticism on experts far more knowledgeable and experienced... this was obviously an extremely tough forecast (and still has to verify), and I myself was sweating with my own Boston 6-10 forecast to co-workers, so I can only imagine the stress involved in widely public forecasts for much larger areas.

But there was a bit of a windshield wiper effect with the BOX maps chasing model consensus the past 2 days... I wonder if that could have been avoided with less frequent updates or waiting until closer? Fortunately, I doubt the public is as aware of this as we are. And I don't know of a single TV forecaster (Harv included) who had this correct (again, still has to verify).

My general thinking is that if you're confident enough to drop a warning to an advisory, then you probably weren't confident enough to issue a warning in the first place. 

I issued warnings much earlier than I normally would last night, because I thought even if parts of my coast mixed for a time that once the heavy lift and change back to snow occurred 6+ looked like a solid bet. Now I'm sure we would catch a lot of flak in SE NH if someone doesn't get 12", but I issued the warning based on 6+ and the totals I was forecasting at the time represented my most educated guess. 

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My general thinking is that if you're confident enough to drop a warning to an advisory, then you probably weren't confident enough to issue a warning in the first place. 

I issued warnings much earlier than I normally would last night, because I thought even if parts of my coast mixed for a time that once the heavy lift and change back to snow occurred 6+ looked like a solid bet. Now I'm sure we would catch a lot of flak in SE NH if someone doesn't get 12", but I issued the warning based on 6+ and the totals I was forecasting at the time represented my most educated guess. 

Agree

And sometimes you just can't please any and all expectations and misconceptions, especially if people are equating a warning with a promise of 12".

In any case... you up all night? Gonna be a long fun day Wednesday, I'm gonna try to recharge...

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree

And sometimes you just can't please any and all expectations and misconceptions, especially if people are equating a warning with a promise of 12".

In any case... you up all night? Gonna be a long fun day Wednesday, I'm gonna try to recharge...

Midnight shifts. They aren't all bad, I got to sleep through the crappy 12z runs. 

[#NoPoles]

Sigh...well, my rain seems to be right on track. Even though I've always known I would be rain, the weenie in me was hoping for a last second miracle.

I guess I will just have watch it play out on tv through live shots.

I hope I don't lose power

[wxsniss]

18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Sigh...well, my rain seems to be right on track. Even though I've always known I would be rain, the weenie in me was hoping for a last second miracle.

I guess I will just have watch it play out on tv through live shots.

I hope I don't lose power

6z NAM continuing southeast trends

Colder, continues huge hit for eastern SNE, track looks close to BM

[Thunderblizzard]

6z NAM is really SE. Almost the entirety of SNE crushed.

[OceanStWx]

This is finally an example where the snow probabilities we do work well. Large, widespread snowfalls. 

I think it nicely shows the range we're realistically talking about. Our forecast is largely 12-18". The high potential has a big swath of 18-21", and the low potential has 6-8" in the mountains but less than 6" south and east of there, with next to nothing at the coast.