Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Hazey]

NYC looks to get clobbered on this run.

[weathafella]

Luke getting pummeled!

[powderfreak]

This is going to be very good for the forum.

[JC-CT]

This is about the time the NAM should be doubling qpf for a model cycle. Looks about right.

[Typhoon Tip]

keep in mind that the off mains have been tending to sag SE of the primary intervals with the NAM, which may be a function of initialization; i.e., you could be looking at subtle difference between those because of systemic/operations more so than real trends

[mostman]

Three frames just spinning south of LI instead of the coast of NJ. 

[Buddy1987]

This is gonna be a darn 2 footer for CT on this run and into Mass. WOW!

[weathafella]

100% of SNE outside of far SE areas getting thrashed 57 hours.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just like we didn’t use at 12z, we’re not using 18z

[WxBlue]

No exaggeration here - 12z Euro and 18z NAM are two of the most insane "IMBY" snow runs I ever seen... and it's inside 72 hours! Not even our fantasy storms get this crazy down south.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’ll come off the nam high soon just let me rub myself to it for another 20min. 

[bobbutts]

Some graphics from this afternoon.

 

 

 

 

[weathafella]

Directly over ACK

[Buddy1987]

Pinch me so I wake up!

[Typhoon Tip]

That's pretty cool watching the hi res loops of the NAM solution as it Fuji's the surface reflection around the initial closing 500 mb S of LI and E of NJ

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

This is about the time the NAM should be doubling qpf for a model cycle. Looks about right.

^

[mostman]

54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

My best guess in terms of track, intensity RA/SN line and max snowfall area/total.

You read the NAM early. Didn’t you?

[Typhoon Tip]

man, this thing's ceiling is pretty unclear  

[WxBlue]

NAM joins the Euro with 20"+ total from SE NH to PWM. Epic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

^

It's Not that insane...12-18?

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

man, this thing's ceiling is pretty unclear  

40" for Acton?

Hopefully it's overdoing the BL issues along the coast.  An inch or two here?  I'd lose it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's Not that insane...12-18?

I'm mobile,  so sry if I missed something...

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

man, this thing's ceiling is pretty unclear  

If we get that stall near ACK, then we could def be throwing around 20-handles

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Pinch me so I wake up!

Not done yet at that point either.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's Not that insane...12-18?

If that is the snow algorithm output, it is thinking some is lost to rain. It is over 2" qpf for a wide swath.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

If that is the snow algorithm output, it is thinking some is lost to rain. It is over 2" qpf for a wide swath.

Ah...thanks.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we get that stall near ACK, then we could def be throwing around 20-handles

Thing is though, that run didn't stall near ACK.

[toller65]

3 minutes ago, mostman said:

You read the NAM early. Didn’t you?

No way the Low ejects NE toward QC - the block eventually shunts it ENE to the Maritimes

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we get that stall near ACK, then we could def be throwing around 20-handles

Popov blue label?

[bobbutts]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

40" for Acton?

Hopefully it's overdoing the BL issues along the coast.  An inch or two here?  I'd lose it.

Looks like a very tough call for inside 495 where 20 miles makes a huge difference.