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WeatherFeen2000

-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's not the norm but it happens. February 25-26 2010 NYC got 21" and Worcester mostly rain and I think 5" on the back end.

Not terribly different from this but that low seems to have closed off a lot earlier and was less progressive, actually looped back north and west. That pulled a ton of warm air into New England. This one seems like it will keep moving east into the ocean. That should allow them to cool down as well. 

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2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's not the norm but it happens. February 25-26 2010 NYC got 21" and Worcester mostly rain and I think 5" on the back end.

I was in Livingston for that storm just cold enough for the primary to stay all snow got 11” while nyc 20 miles east stayed mainly rain, they made up for it getting nailed by the coastal while I was just out of the death band. We both ended with 21” or so

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High rates or bust. This could easily be light rain for much of NJ/NYC with white rain by late afternoon. We needed the euro tonight.

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3 minutes ago, Enigma said:

High rates or bust. This could easily be light rain for much of NJ/NYC with white rain by late afternoon. We needed the euro tonight.

We did? The Euro hasn't had a great track record either this season. 

The parts are still in motion, it's going to take another 24 hrs before things become clearer. 

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Seems really progressive and SE of other models. The only area outside of upstate NY and maybe Berkshires that does well snowwise this run is SE Mass around the Cape. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Seems really progressive and SE of other models. The only area outside of upstate NY and maybe Berkshires that does well snowwise this run is SE Mass around the Cape. 

Its been consistent on 6-9" for NW NJ, NE PA & SE NY ( W of the Hudson). 

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

Its been consistent on 6-10" for extreme NW NJ, NE PA & SE NY ( W of the Hudson). 

This is the snow map on weather.us 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-york/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180303-0900z.html

You get maybe 0.6" liquid as snow this run. The NY/PA border from Erie to BGM is where it's at. Pretty much a suicide run for most in New England.

 

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This is a huge weenie term. But this might just be a nowcasting event ;) Between thermal issues, low strength, and a potential CCB there's a lot of undetermined variables at play. If the NAM constitutes to get more mesos onboard with the snowier solution that's going to be hard to discount. 

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Looks this run overall like everything gets squashed SE fast, maybe by confluence. Everything consolidates way offshore, and too late for anyone near the coast to see anything. 

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18 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Damn Rjay looks like just me and you if thats possible,,,,,give me play by play and pic if u can ?

Hr 36 is rain for all.  The surface is torched at hours 42 and 48

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_8.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_neng_9.png

ecmwf_t850_nyc_8.png

ecmwf_t850_nyc_9.png

ecmwf_t2m_nyc_8.png

ecmwf_t2m_nyc_9.png

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Nam/Gem-lam vs euro, gfs, Ukie, rgem, Etc etc etc.   

Who's going to win the thermal profile war? 

GFS looked alot more like the NAM imo. Rgem is normally a reliable model, so this gives me a bit of pause (granted we are just outside its rather deadly range). The Euro has kept a progressive bias and I don't quite buy it. NAO will keep things slow, though confluence may play into this a bit. Furthermore, as far as confluence; there seems to be a ULL that is hanging around Maine that is really helping to create some of this confluence, and perhaps the Euro is picking up on this. But, that being said, I would stick to the meso models if that's the case as they seem to be picking up a bit more on the synoptical pattern.

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was more the thermals that killed it.  The setup was actually borderline ideal for here if it was a bit colder.  Actually better than it was for Boston 

Goose hate to put you out there but your thoughts for nyc metro/nj

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not terribly different from this but that low seems to have closed off a lot earlier and was less progressive, actually looped back north and west. That pulled a ton of warm air into New England. This one seems like it will keep moving east into the ocean. That should allow them to cool down as well. 

It's going to be very difficult to get something like that in this kind of pattern, it's a semi-analog but not an altogether ideal one.  And in that one NYC got 21" while we got about half that- do you see us getting much closer to what NYC gets this time?

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
415 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

NYZ046-057-062-020915-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0003.180302T0500Z-180303T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.180302T0400Z-180303T0600Z/
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, and Monticello
415 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16
  inches, with localized amounts up to 20 inches in the higher
  Catskill mountains, are expected.

* WHERE...Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, including
  during the morning commute on Friday. Winds gusting as high as
  45 mph Friday afternoon will cause areas blowing and drifting
  snow, along with scattered power outages. Snow could fall heavy
  at times after midnight tonight and into the day on Friday, with
  rates up to 2 inches per hour possible.
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