JC-CT Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It just doesn’t consolidate so it’s days and days of light snows that adds up on the grass Hazey would disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It just doesn’t consolidate so it’s days and days of light snows that adds up on the grass Lol, and what? It is 0.00 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I like where we sit. Euro se and gfs close in. It’s like the reverse 90s rule that’s been working lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 luckily, the Euro at day 4/5 has been a mess this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Lol, and what? It is 0.00 qpf. Not even overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like where we sit. Euro se and gfs close in. It’s like the reverse 90s rule that’s been working lately. Yeah that happened in the previous two threats in the medium range (D4-6). I like a lot of aspects about this setup overall. I wouldn't really be worried unless this Euro-esque solution keeps showing for another 3 cycles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going to have to research my all time snowiest March tonight....'bout that time. Already broken here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that happened in the previous two threats in the medium range (D4-6). I like a lot of aspects about this setup overall. I wouldn't really be worried unless this Euro-esque solution keeps showing for another 3 cycles or so. It went from a massive hit to flurries in one run. Ensembles until Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that happened in the previous two threats in the medium range (D4-6). I like a lot of aspects about this setup overall. I wouldn't really be worried unless this Euro-esque solution keeps showing for another 3 cycles or so. Euro has trended south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has trended south though. 12z yesterday OTS 00z massive hit 12z today OTS it’s all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 7 hours ago, weathafella said: Oh this ones coming and hard at that. This post above, THAT is why the Euro went this route. Toss all physical processing based upon empirical input data aside, Jerry caused this run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 meh, this run does eventually coalesce a decent cyclone - just happens to be out at sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z yesterday OTS 00z massive hit 12z today OTS it’s all over ? We're discussing OP runs here, not Esmb. What OP run from the Euro you smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ? We're discussing OP runs here, not Esmb. What OP run from the Euro you smoking? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ? We're discussing OP runs here, not Esmb. What OP run from the Euro you smoking? I think you just proved his point. Thats OTS. Does anyone on CAPE really care about 3-6" after this recent event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has trended south though. And? It's one run 5-6 days out. Last night's was a good hit. I'll give it another 2-3 cycles and see where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Euro says, What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blizz said: I think you just proved his point. Thats OTS. Does anyone on CAPE really care about 3-6" after this recent event? Yeah I have no idea what he’s talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I'll tell you why it's wrong: it gives DC 20". Let the gradual push north commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'll tell you why it's wrong: it gives DC 20". Let the gradual push north commence. It could be right... but sell hard on dc getting 20” in mid March. Things have to go almost perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 EPS looks south/more OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 It was one helluva winter run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: EPS looks south/more OTS. Same as the op Usually follows each other although suppressiom is a big factor. More worried about that than a warm storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 EPS are def pretty ugly. But that said, I'll remind everyone to take a look at the March 8th EPS for the 3/13 storm...they were hideous too. They really didn't start looking decent until the 3/9 runs (and the OP took even a little longer) which is why I'd give it another couple cycles. The GEFS def did better in the medium range. It doesn't mean they will beat the EPS this time though....EPS are still the best in the business, but right now they are def the SE outlier. GEFS/GEPS are well NW of them and so is the OP Ukie (no ensembles for that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are def pretty ugly. But that said, I'll remind everyone to take a look at the March 8th EPS for the 3/13 storm...they were hideous too. They really didn't start looking decent until the 3/9 runs (and the OP took even a little longer) which is why I'd give it another couple cycles. The GEFS def did better in the medium range. It doesn't mean they will beat the EPS this time though....EPS are still the best in the business, but right now they are def the SE outlier. GEFS/GEPS are well NW of them and so is the OP Ukie (no ensembles for that). Heck a day or two before this last storm people were cliff jumping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Heck a day or two before this last storm people were cliff jumping lol Well that happens in every storm. But empirically speaking, the EPS didn't start showing a pretty threatening signal until once inside of 100 hours, so that is why I'd wait a little longer on the current threat...especially since it is the southeast outlier amongst multi-model ensemble guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Its to far out to worry which way this is heading, I'm monitoring it and will look more in depth next week when we get 3 days or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I'd also add that the EPS tends to move along with the operational a bit more readily as a mean ... So the Euro went disjointed more so and lost some coherency etc... this run being flat could really just be a mean/average of the same shebang - ... For me, the bigger telling aspect is the discontinuity that Kevin (of all people..heh) succinctly expressed awhile ago with that blurb about 12z off, 00z on, 12z off oscillatory confusion. It really means the model cluster isn't very good with this and I'd leave it at that. Or as Will said... just give it a day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd also add that the EPS tends to move along with the operational a bit more readily as a mean ... So the Euro went disjointed more so and lost some coherency etc... this run being flat could really just be a mean/average of the same shebang - ... For me, the bigger telling aspect is the discontinuity that Kevin (of all people..heh) succinctly expressed awhile ago with that blurb about 12z off, 00z on, 12z off oscillatory confusion. It really means the model cluster isn't very good with this and I'd leave it at that. Or as Will said... just give it a day and half. And if all else fails......just run with the ICON...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that happened in the previous two threats in the medium range (D4-6). I like a lot of aspects about this setup overall. I wouldn't really be worried unless this Euro-esque solution keeps showing for another 3 cycles or so. Euro agrees with the 12z JMA; that tells us pretty much all we need to know about what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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