Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies show winter hanging out until April Hmm... "show winter" ... not to be disrespectful but, is that your opinion, or are you comparing that to some metric? Thing is, the Weeklies... I'm not a fan. Mainly because over the years I have been exposed to lots of memes/diatribes in weather-related social media ...tweets, the blogosphere (though blogging is becoming passe actually ) on the subject matter and have a running sort of average/perception on how successful they are, and they seem pretty clearly to be rather coin flipping random beyond ... maybe D15 or so... The limited predictive skill they have at that range really gets pretty badly correlated there after. But, since the weeklies are a product of some sort of ensemble regression analysis, perhaps that means the teleconnectors better than the GEFs? My statement was purely GEFs backed... heh. If the EPS has a some other -EPO and -NAO or whatever, that should be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Whiff? You see a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: You see a hit? On the ensembles? For sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: On the ensembles? For sure EPS and GEFS look pretty meh to me, but I’ll let it play out. 0/2 so far here on the coast in this stormy regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Put away the banana hammocks and wife beaters Tip spring ain't coming anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'm excited for March! I'm in Seoul from the 14-19 but it doesn't look like much is going on. Hope to come home to some fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Gotta love the day 6 CMC blizzard..nice capture and hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hmm... "show winter" ... not to be disrespectful but, is that your opinion, or are you comparing that to some metric? Thing is, the Weeklies... I'm not a fan. Mainly because over the years I have been exposed to lots of memes/diatribes in weather-related social media ...tweets, the blogosphere (though blogging is becoming passe actually ) on the subject matter and have a running sort of average/perception on how successful they are, and they seem pretty clearly to be rather coin flipping random beyond ... maybe D15 or so... The limited predictive skill they have at that range really gets pretty badly correlated there after. But, since the weeklies are a product of some sort of ensemble regression analysis, perhaps that means the teleconnectors better than the GEFs? My statement was purely GEFs backed... heh. If the EPS has a some other -EPO and -NAO or whatever, that should be considered. Hey Tip, was wondering your thoughts on how things evolve in April. I'd like to throw out there that I'm not looking for you to commit to anything, nor will I crucify you if things end up evolving differently. I'm merely curious on your thoughts. I've been thinking about going for training for work in April. It's a week long stint outdoors in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Some decent hits on the ensembles . I think she’s coming Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: I am in Vt the same week you are in Maine, I book my time around your annual trip now. I may even take a stab at 4/4-4/8 this year instead of going west. nice, have a great time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 hours ago, #NoPoles said: Hey Tip, was wondering your thoughts on how things evolve in April. I'd like to throw out there that I'm not looking for you to commit to anything, nor will I crucify you if things end up evolving differently. I'm merely curious on your thoughts. I've been thinking about going for training for work in April. It's a week long stint outdoors in CT. heh heh heh.... yeeeah. April ... the bane of my existence. I predict that it will be a pain in the ass and the weather will be gruelingly unpredictable because the atmosphere engineers backdoor fronts and air masses that are perfectly wrong for what people want ... as a petty scheme against those that actually appreciate summer and would rather the seasonal migration have on with it... Is that the type of weather for your out-doorsy aspirations ? ...seriously? ...La Nina springs, to which this is weakly associated, tend to be on the early side. I almost suspect that the rules of "when" spring starts as they are boundaries in time set forth by godly man, and the reality of when spring starts as instructed by the atmosphere its self during a given season, have already fallen out of sync for this year. And yes, that includes this snow storm tonight. I mean ... it snows in spring and is built into our climatology - I see this as a spring blue bomb. Look at the Euro's day-10. That day may not and probably will not verify exactly like that, but just the fact that the model spit out that synoptic appeal is spring incarnate! That's after whatever bomb next week. Point being, taking this cinema and advancing it by a month, would suggest a warmer than normal April. But, this is an essayists take on the 'tempo' and theme. Themes can change. I've seen snow blowing off a flat roof on April 11th at 1pm in the early afternoon before... just remember that. However, it's been long suggested that after next week .. the hemispheric teleconnectors that while we may not be completely done writing the novel for this winter, we are certainly writing the closing acknowledgements. Sorry, I can't get any more specific than that... due to our particular idiosyncratic climate in spring, we can get cold months in a hemispheric hot pattern simply because of the Labrador Current. Or, we can get an April like in 2001, when it was 90 + on several occasions ..and even the backdoors were only cooling things back to 70 in town. It seems the one time of year physics flies out the door and angels and demons play tennis with our sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Put away the banana hammocks and wife beaters Tip spring ain't coming anytime soon It's already here. My pack is patches of glacier and the ground is almost thawed out.Any new snow will be primed to go with March sun and 40s. We're well ahead of the game up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not sure if it will do it but the GFS is giving the next one the ol college try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Not sure if it will do it but the GFS is giving the next one the ol college try. Yep. Another slow mover. We watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z GFS is snow into SNE this run, Northern stream s/w really doing its work this run as it tries to phase/capture the southern stream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS is snow into SNE this run, Northern stream s/w really doing its work this run as it tries to phase/capture the southern stream s/w. The latest trends for the current storm have set the longwave trough at a better orientation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 OH that next system, 12-14th is still very much in play. The general mass-field layout still wants amplitude over the eastern U.S. in that time frame... how that comes to pass will of course dictated sensible/impact scenarios. I will say that it may be a better thing for winter storm enthusiasts at this sort of time range and having to deal with probabilities that this thing is not perfectly phased for 7 to 8 days out. The ICON model ...albeit probably less than preferred as a guidance type at this point ... still can be used to illustrate issues.. There is all kinds of wave interference as the model is assessing at this time, and from what I can tell ...each model is doing some similar discordant wave handling. That may or may not come into focus, but so long as the mass-field argument is in place, it's worth it to watch. Interestingly.. .one thing I am noticing is that storm may have more actual cold air to work with than even this one tonight... despite being closer to the Ides of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The latest trends for the current storm have set the longwave trough at a better orientation too. That's been the case, We have had to wait on Todays/Tomorrows because it affects what will happen with this next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 lol ccb just sits over E Mass as it spins in place. 2015 all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: lol ccb just sits over E Mass as it spins in place. 2015 all over again Captured and stalls east of CC, Its the GFS, Going to need others to jump on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Captured and stalls east of CC, Its the GFS, Going to need others to jump on. Only downhill from here. Way downhill. We are on Mt Tolland right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Only downhill from here. Way downhill. We are on Mt Tolland right now. Night and day @H5 from 06z.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Only downhill from here. Way downhill. We are on Mt Tolland right now. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Have not looked at this one much yet but how has the ensembles looked so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just saw the 12z Ukie on the french maps, Looks like Mon/Tues would be a huge hit 985mb in the gulf of maine as it climbs NE up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Well looky looky for Monday...Let's get the Euro to stop being so SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just saw the 12z Ukie on the french maps, Looks like Mon/Tues would be a huge hit 985mb in the gulf of maine as it climbs NE up the coast. Oh man...Jeff looking onto the next system before this one starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Oh man...Jeff looking onto the next system before this one starts? Trying to stay one step ahead.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Oh man...Jeff looking onto the next system before this one starts? I'm like Jeff. For some reason a current storm is more fun when we already have something to watch down the road. If next week was as torch I would not enjoy our current storm as much. With this next system didn't both the GFS and Euro have a hits several days ago? Then both were much flatter yesterday. Now the GFS and Ukie have a hit again. If the Euro follows this PM it will start getting really interesting. The current storm seems just a bit too far SE for me. Big qpf to my SE but models keep showing .6" to 1" here. Nice storm but not a 970b bomb over Portland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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