Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Another small but important piece of guidance that has been overlooked in our analysis, I have crocuses blooming in my yard. Sping is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Closing off of H5 early is the key, always best to induce flow early into the H5 from cold source regions. Still man so freaking close to something. Last nights Euro for CT was about as close to non snow you can get with the last inch of QPF Its been at least 24 hrs since anything trended sooner with phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: At least should gfs go to euro in a hr, i could say "peace out" Prolly see a 6z gfs/0z euro compromise I'd bet it'll head that direction, but who really knows. If I had to guess at this point I'd probably go with like a slushy 1-3'' in SNE on Friday night/early Saturday morning after pounding rain at best. Potential still there for more but shades closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ski trip to Hunter Mtn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Like Pickles said...I actually hope that 12z GFS seals the deal for a non event in SNE(snow wise..which I believe it will), so I can close the book on this convoluted mess. This is gone...too many variables messing up the pooch here that are not going in a favorable direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Man, I finally get the ideal track I’ve been craving for.....with blocking....for about 7 years now but I may miss a hecs by like +1C. Don't write it off yet, I still think the Euro makes another correction north at 12z, Its not going to make huge jumps from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, DomNH said: I'd bet it'll head that direction, but who really knows. If I had to guess at this point I'd probably go with like a slushy 1-3'' in SNE on Friday night/early Saturday morning after pounding rain at best. Potential still there for more but shades closing. If it' under like 10", I'd rather it just rain and be done TBH...I'm done with pedestrian at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Don't right it off yet, I still think the Euro makes another correction north at 12z, Its not going to make huge jumps from run to run. Yea, I'm close to punting...Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Much better look on the NAM for the ULL this run. Snowy look. Keeps firehose going into early Sat. Just will need intensity rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: NO... not talking about the mechanics of the jet orientation - ...I said, the cold source at low levels is being blocked by it. I’ll check that out later when I get the chance when I’m not on mobile. I take your word on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Philly snow>Ray snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it' under like 10", I'd rather it just rain and be done TBH...I'm done with pedestrian at this point. Agreed. I've been rooting for no snow because I have stuff going on this weekend, but the weenie in me would cave to an April '97 solution. A few sloppy inches after hours of cold rain is not appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Agreed. I've been rooting for no snow because I have stuff going on this weekend, but the weenie in me would cave to an April '97 solution. A few sloppy inches after hours of cold rain is not appealing. I just don't need to be bothered with 6" of slush...hopefully it's an elevation event of that's how it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Another small but important piece of guidance that has been overlooked in our analysis, I have crocuses blooming in my yard. Sping is here. Is that code word for you having some type of VD? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm close to punting...Not yet. You still have a shot, There is no shot up here, If its cold enough no precip, If i get precip, Its rain, Just as soon have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM actually rots the ccb over SE Mass, RI and CT with east / west firehose dropping good snows . Can see it on animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ski trip to Hunter Mtn? Too bad Petes in Canada with Eric Radarman I still think the Berks and yes Catskills and Rick Logan should clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy look. Keeps firehose going into early Sat. Just will need intensity rates It's on Life support for sure...12z seals it if it's not going in a favorable direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Too bad Petes in Canada with Eric Radarman I still think the Berks and yes Catskills and Rick Logan should clean up Pete and Rick are golden right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 By no means is this right, but you can see how the firehose rots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Is that code word for you having some type of VD? lol lol! It is now! "Listen, honey, before we do this I have to tell you something. I have crocuses blooming in my yard, if you know what I mean." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Four inches of cold rain is pretty much the definition of miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You still have a shot, There is no shot up here, If its cold enough no precip, If i get precip, Its rain, Just as soon have nothing. I haven't seen a single solution with accumulating snow here since the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NAM actually rots the ccb over SE Mass, RI and CT with east / west firehose dropping good snows . Can see it on animation We would take 6 of snow in a heart beat. Transforming the landscape with natures beauty, other apparently are happy with mud and bare trees, to each his own . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: By no means is this right, but you can see how the firehose rots 6-12"...hopefully it stays there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't seen a single solution with accumulating snow here since the 18z NAM. Plenty of time left, Still no run to run model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: We would take 6 of snow in a heart beat. Transforming the landscape with natures beauty, other apparently are happy with mud and bare trees, to each his own . Enjoy cleaning up 6" of 6:1 glop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Four inches of cold rain is pretty much the definition of miserable Yea I don't understand wanting any part of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enjoy cleaning up 6" of 6:1 glop. I would enjoy it a lot actually, couple cars, deck, 125 ft driveway, portable garage, piece of cake. Are you frail? Benjamin Buttons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll check that out later when I get the chance when I’m not on mobile. I take your word on it though. Ah ha ... don't take my word for it I'm speculating and wanting others too, as well. I just want it looked into - because the 50,000 ft complexion of the synoptics ...comparing back and forth across different cycles (per interval) and cross guidance types gives the appearance that a pulse of cold was more available in some of those "bluer" runs? And, I noticed that the handling of the last in the series of those waves up there suggested that could be the source. We all know that the Euro's coming in with a once in a 500 year snow dump ...only to have it rain anyway. I gotta say, we could be looking at 5" of rain there and some pretty impressive flood from that too.. Nothing like having a multi faceted threat be elusive in each category, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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