Logan11 Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 It's had a clue on several events here this year. The gfs thermals around ALB already seem to be busting. ALB in the lowlands at 37/27. Northerly drain effective. 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't think i have heard the nam mentioned this many times without a 4 letter word in front of it or after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm so done with this f&*king event. Don't care at this point...get it over with so we don't have to endure any more $hitty runs. If Atlantic City pulls more snow from this thing than me I'm taking a time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Time for an obs thread? I'm at 45/33 and drops are beginning to fall...go time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, tavwtby said: Time for an obs thread? I'm at 45/33 and drops are beginning to fall...go time! There is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: There is one. Really?? I didn't see it thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, tavwtby said: Really?? I didn't see it thanks https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51015-blizzard-2018-take-ii-the-firehose/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 This one is definitely a rare bird...hard to find a good analog for it, it is really too bad the airmass is garbage or we'd have a region wide dumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 GFS looks better tomorrow evening. Definitely further north with the mid level erly flow after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS looks better tomorrow evening. Definitely further north with the mid level erly flow after 00z. Its amazing how even just some wobbles in the lobes of vorticity slinging around the ULL really have a huge impact on the firehose. That's going to be hard to predict....because like 4-6 hours difference could be pretty big sensible wx changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Its amazing how even just some wobbles in the lobes of vorticity slinging around the ULL really have a huge impact on the firehose. That's going to be hard to predict....because like 4-6 hours difference could be pretty big sensible wx changes. There are vort lobes and meso lows everywhere. How the heck is that modeled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There are vort lobes and meso lows everywhere. How the heck is that modeled well. Makes you miss the NGM right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: For verification later on. Let's hope this over-performs, definitely going to be some weird snowfall distribution without a doubt either way! Send me your totals once it's all said and done. So I SEE you came around to JB’s thinking somewhat? We don’t have to bump your post like you told us a couple days ago...lol., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Makes you miss the NGM right? It always had a nice FOUS output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 This is the type of storm that no snow map will do justice. Elevation dependent events close to Spring are nightmares waiting to happen. Meanwhile just experienced the warmest Feb. on record, twenty-six days >80F. Good-luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: So I SEE you came around to JB’s thinking somewhat? We don’t have to bump your post like you told us a couple days ago...lol., You and 40/70 with completely different forecasts, I believe you have the correct idea but time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Makes you miss the NGM right? Lets reduce the resolution a bit..... I'd take the 00z Ukie look (plymouth still comes out, but their maps have no sfc level anymore and 700mb is just height/vectors....lol...but its all you need to really see) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So I SEE you came around to JB’s thinking somewhat? We don’t have to bump your post like you told us a couple days ago...lol., Well that isnt 2-3" in the city and 6-12" for the majority of SNE, first of all. Second, i admitted that i was wrong (possibly) and made a forecast based on the current modeling, whilest swallowing my pride. Also, to be fair, it hasnt even begun yet and well see tomorrow night what happens, still could be a non-event for CT after it's all said and done. You can requote me, Saturday, i have no problem admitting i was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Well that isnt 2-3" in the city and 6-12" for the majority of SNE, first of all. Second, i admitted that i was wrong (possibly) and made a forecast based on the current modeling, whilest swallowing my pride. Also, to be fair, it hasnt even begun yet and well see tomorrow night what happens, still could be a non-event for CT after it's all said and done. I agree! I think its a non event for most too. Maybe next Wednesday will be the better one??? We hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lets reduce the resolution a bit..... I'd take the 00z Ukie look (plymouth still comes out, but their maps have no sfc level anymore and 700mb is just height/vectors....lol...but its all you need to really see) I always heard it was less susceptible to convective feedback, but I have no idea if it's true anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks better tomorrow evening. Definitely further north with the mid level erly flow after 00z. This is exactly what I banked on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 CMC looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The GFS has ORH with a temp of 44F at 18z tomorrow. What's the Vegas line on how much it's off by too high? I'd set the line at +/- 9F or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks better tomorrow evening. Definitely further north with the mid level erly flow after 00z. 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The GFS has ORH with a temp of 44F at 18z tomorrow. What's the Vegas line on how much it's off by too high? I'd set the line at +/- 9F or so. That's pretty bad. The 12z run didn't get ORH below 40 until 06z. Saturday! That included tonight (already 39 last hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: CMC looks good. Yeah that is def better than the 12z run with the firehose position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The soundings are brutal. Like dry adiabatic or close to it, to 925. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, Logan11 said: It's had a clue on several events here this year. The gfs thermals around ALB already seem to be busting. ALB in the lowlands at 37/27. Northerly drain effective. 38/30 here, about 10 miles south of the airport, but it started as snow! Wet bulb 35F. Wasn't expecting snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The soundings are brutal. Like dry adiabatic or close to it, to 925. Lol. Yeah, how many times have you seen +RA or SN and dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 100 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's pretty bad. The 12z run didn't get ORH below 40 until 06z. Saturday! That included tonight (already 39 last hour). Here's another good one for our own entertainment....what are the odds that ORH gets more snow than ITH? You'd think ITH should finally win this time...but the NE wind at ITH makes me cringe over the next 9 hours...when it finally turns north where they do well, they dont have much time left in the good precip. Worcester NY on I-88 FTW I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The GFS has ORH with a temp of 44F at 18z tomorrow. What's the Vegas line on how much it's off by too high? I'd set the line at +/- 9F or so. i would bet on about 10-11F, 32-33 at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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