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Feb 7th snow threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Already mixing.  Less than 2 inches, forecasted 3-6.  I have been through this over performing mid level warmth story too many times and it is old. 

What’s crazy is we didn’t get that much less in upper Manhattan. You guys may be in for a serious ice storm now. Meanwhile southern Vermont is going to get pounded. Looks like 18” is a good call for the ski resorts 

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

32 and light ZR still, expect a nice temp bump soon.

You will probably beat me on the high for the day when the turbocharged LLJ gets going later. The LLJ actually makes it to a +4sd event for February. While there is an inversion in place, some stronger winds may mix down with the heavier line that the mesos have.

 

NAMNE_925_spd_012.png.2990e1e8f06e641f1fe7681f7022b24f.png

 

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11 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Already mixing.  Less than 2 inches, forecasted 3-6.  I have been through this over performing mid level warmth story too many times and it is old. 

And Albany was the most conservative of all the northeastern WFOs. People give them a ton of grief for often being last to jump on the big totals bandwagon, but it's been paying off nicely as of late. Pure sleet now as temps rise about a degree every half hour... I'm really not expecting a ton of ice accretion but we'll see.

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1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

And Albany was the most conservative of all the northeastern WFOs. People give them a ton of grief for often being last to jump on the big totals bandwagon, but it's been paying off nicely as of late. Pure sleet now as temps rise about a degree every half hour... I'm really not expecting a ton of ice accretion but we'll see.

Kudos to ALB. I have no idea what Upton was thinking yesterday bumping our snow totals up. The writing was on the wall more than 24 hrs ago.

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Just now, snywx said:

Kudos to ALB. I have no idea what Upton was thinking yesterday bumping our snow totals up. The writing was on the wall more than 24 hrs ago.

Seems like their it's been their shtick the last several seasons to go balls to the wall after it's already abundantly clear that the higher potential would not be realized.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

Seems like their it's been their shtick the last several seasons to go balls to the wall after it's already abundantly clear that the higher potential would not be realized.

They sure do seem to have the biggest ego problem in the region. Even the coldest solutions last night were nowhere NEAR the totals they put out. Which is more about alerting the public to the reality of the incoming icing situation up near 84. Going to get bad. 

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1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Yay for moderate rain at 25* :(  Gonna be a real mess out there soon. On the upside it ought to cap the snow that fell :huh: I almost got to 2" before the flip.

Just under 3" here. The zr/ip currently falling at 22° will pretty much guarantee the staying power of this snowpack.

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

I saw many mets going as high as 6-10 for my area lol.. What in the world were they seeing!!

I do have to give them credit for 1/4. Few of the models outside the 3kNAM and maybe RGEM had the totals as high as they were, and Upton was 'almost' that bullish. But these totals had zero support. Not sure if they were waiting for meso suites, but to me it's inexcusable. These are the types of situations, in combination with the backlogged manner in which forecasts are disseminated to the public, that give the public the impression that we're still in the paleo era of forecasting. (It's not quite that* bad.) 

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3 minutes ago, snywx said:

Just under 3" here. The zr/ip currently falling at 22° will pretty much guarantee the staying power of this snowpack.

You're lucky because you had a bit yesterday and a few days ago. This fell on bare ground for me so it didn't even cover the grass completely. It's gonna get ugly pretty quickly :( 

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4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I do have to give them credit for 1/4. Few of the models outside the 3kNAM and maybe RGEM had the totals as high as they were, and Upton was 'almost' that bullish. But these totals had zero support. Not sure if they were waiting for meso suites, but to me it's inexcusable. These are the types of situations, in combination with the backlogged manner in which forecasts are disseminated to the public, that give the public the impression that we're still in the paleo era of forecasting. (It's not quite that* bad.) 

It seems like many mets thought guidance was over doing the mid level warmth. 

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