George BM Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 The 18z GBMx model is not very happy houry. Patriots: 31 --- Eagles: 20 However the ensemble mean looks better than it did earlier during the week. While the majority still show a Patriots win there are an increasing number of them that have better solutions. On average the nflsports ensemble mean is roughly 1.6 pts in the Pats direction. The cbssports ensemble mean is very huggable with roughly 2.5 pts of accumulation on the Eagles side (one member even gives us 14 pts of pure bliss). They seem to be keying on a stronger Philly defense and offense that may muddy the Pats drives and allow the Eagles more yards/points. These patterns are hard to predict, though, especially with models having a history of underestimating the Pats late comebacks (can't completely ignore that). We all remember last year when the medium range epic 2 dozen+ point storm shifted way north before our eyes through the short range until we ended up being 6 pts too warm while New England basked in the thunderpoint storm. What I'm hoping for is for the Eagles to have a big scoring burst at some point, particularly as we go into and through short range so that the point storm can only trend so far north. It is not easy in a Patriots pattern as we've seen before but I hope that stronger, less transient blocking from the Eagles this year can do us wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't have true duals. Y-pipe off the headers split back to 2 outlets off the muffler. My kit was the dod24m so basically a magnaflow muffler with 2 stainless mandrels welded on the outlets to make up for the shorter muffler. That kit looks like a straight muffler delete. Would be a breeze to install honeslty. Prob take 90 mins and it would ROAR. Let me know when to come over. LOL. Yeah baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, George BM said: The 18z GBMx model is not very happy houry. Patriots: 31 --- Eagles: 20 However the ensemble mean looks better than it did earlier during the week. While the majority still show a Patriots win there are an increasing number of them that have better solutions. On average the nflsports ensemble mean is roughly 1.6 pts in the Pats direction. The cbssports ensemble mean is very huggable with roughly 2.5 pts of accumulation on the Eagles side (one member even gives us 14 pts of pure bliss). They seem to be keying on a stronger Philly defense and offense that may muddy the Pats drives and allow the Eagles more yards/points. These patterns are hard to predict, though, especially with models having a history of underestimating the Pats late comebacks (can't completely ignore that). We all remember last year when the medium range epic 2 dozen+ point storm shifted way north before our eyes through the short range until we ended up being 6 pts too warm while New England basked in the thunderpoint storm. What I'm hoping for is for the Eagles to have a big scoring burst at some point, particularly as we go into and through short range so that the point storm can only trend so far north. It is not easy in a Patriots pattern as we've seen before but I hope that stronger, less transient blocking from the Eagles this year can do us wonders. Lol! We can only hope! But seriously, I'd prefer the Eagles win over the Pats any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah baby! Dude....that's awesome. Just do it...click add to cart and checkout asap. Mufflex knows what they're doing. Very good shop. If that kit is well reviewed in the Jeep forums then just do it. Worth every penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude....that's awesome. Just do it...click add to cart and checkout asap. Mufflex knows what they're doing. Very good shop. If that kit is well reviewed in the Jeep forums then just do it. Worth every penny. I actually read up on the muffler delete awhile back. Mixed reviews. Some love it, some prefer the Borla sound. Then there is the discussion of how it reduces back pressure and causes some loss in torque. Eh, I would like to see some numbers to back that one up. But see, now you got me wanting to do something again lol. A guy I have known for many years runs a shop- does pretty much everything, and he and his son do really great resto mods. He just finished 1970 Mustang Boss and wants to sell it for around 66k. Incredible build. Anyway he bought a 2015 Jeep Srt8 and put a Borla cat back exhaust on it, then a few months later decided he wanted to mod it up more- he put a supercharger on it- so he went with a full performance exhaust system including tubular headers. He offered me the Borla installed for 600. Lol I was about to pull the trigger but I needed tires and had some other expenses att. He probably still has it. I might swing by there this week. Will have some tax return money burning a hole in my pocket in a few weeks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I actually read up on the muffler delete awhile back. Mixed reviews. Some love it, some prefer the Borla sound. Then there is the discussion of how it reduces back pressure and causes some loss in torque. Eh, I would like to see some numbers to back that one up. But see, now you got me wanting to do something again lol. A guy I have known for many years runs a shop- does pretty much everything, and he and his son do really great resto mods. He just finished 1970 Mustang Boss and wants to sell it for around 66k. Incredible build. Anyway he bought a 2015 Jeep Srt8 and put a Borla cat back exhaust on it, then a few months later decided he wanted to mod it up more- he put a supercharger on it- so he went with a full performance exhaust system including tubular headers. He offered me the Borla installed for 600. Lol I was about to pull the trigger but I needed tires and had some other expenses att. He probably still has it. I might swing by there this week. Will have some tax return money burning a hole in my pocket in a few weeks anyway. Let that srt 8 roar man!!!! Get high flow cats and the quietest aftermarket muffler, it will sound nasty. My car is almost too loud but I like the smell. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 By the way this winter is awful. Sucks. Can't get a good powder day in and ride in the trees. I was going to run up to Canaan tomorrow but it looks like it's going to rain there too. Wxunderground app says 5", but Snow-Forecast.com says like 3 and light snow. Looking at a few of the models it is a toss up cause none agree to make a solid decision for a 3.5 hour drive in my snow tire equipped mustang. I've ran up there in some serious snow before and have done well. No issues except taking it slow and being easy taking off in 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Snow-forecast also says rain at mid mountain and below but all snow up top. Doubt that will be exactly right but that is just too close of a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Snow-forecast also says rain at mid mountain and below but all snow up top. Doubt that will be exactly right but that is just too close of a call I was thinking about heading out there in another week. See how these next few events shake out there. I'm sure they wont all be clean, but should build up some snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was thinking about heading out there in another week. See how these next few events shake out there. I'm sure they wont all be clean, but should build up some snow pack. Good point. It would be rushing it I think. Do you look at the weather station reporting on Canaan mountain? They got 9.1 inches in two days and snow pack today was 8 inches at 7am. If they get 6 inches then trees would be open for business... but if they do get some rain, cold nights and more snow this coming week then that snow pack will be solid for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Interesting to see the afd differ quite a bit from point a click forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Another Wizards win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 so the wizards are way better without John Wall...at least an injured Wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Another Wizards win Quite a run they're putting together without wall. Sato is playing the best ball of his career. They had 8 in double figures a couple nights ago too. We're seeing a much deeper team come together than any recent years. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I don't understand why there is no wwa for Canaan valley area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'm about to jump off for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wxdood said: I don't understand why there is no wwa for Canaan valley area Southwesterly winds warm ridges fast than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I challenge someone to give a witty answer. How many hrrr models does it take to make a forecast? eta: That's how bad the hrrr is apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: Southwesterly winds warm ridges fast than us. I know but point and click nws says 1-3 then 1-2 wxunderground says 5. I know point and clicks are vague but still it's odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Blue knob only has 12 trails open..... that is absurd. It was so cold for like 2+ weeks and they couldn't lay a base down with all that??? They need new management. That place could be top 5 in mid Atlantic if they could actually run the place. They need new snow guns, new lifts, clear the glades... all of that costs big $ and maybe they just don't have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 There's nothing worse than wasting prime season climo qpf plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 One thing that makes perfect sense to me, is the precip waiting til peak heating today, then falling as plain rain, zero ice at all here in the lowlands. It makes perfect sense. That sun angle is starting to become a factor. The only good thing is we actually do need the rain in this devastating drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Wxdood said: Blue knob only has 12 trails open..... that is absurd. It was so cold for like 2+ weeks and they couldn't lay a base down with all that??? They need new management. That place could be top 5 in mid Atlantic if they could actually run the place. They need new snow guns, new lifts, clear the glades... all of that costs big $ and maybe they just don't have it. I'll get that resort into primetime. Put me in charge and all trails would be open, snowmaking full throttle, and no walkway would ever go unshoveled. Their problem, is that they are even more lazy than weathafella in SNE lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Unless something changes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Can't post on the Superbowl thread fro some reason. My temp is 33.4 and I've got light rain in northern Calvert County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Can't post on the Superbowl thread fro some reason. My temp is 33.4 and I've got light rain in northern Calvert County. dang. rain already. that's a bit of a dagger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: dang. rain already. that's a bit of a dagger. My surface temp could temporarily drop with evaporational cooling but the temp aloft is probably already above freezing and by noon will be torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 23 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I'm sorry I was a bit of an arse about it. We have had a few more really awful years in the last 10 then normal. I think the current amo and nao phase combo isn't a good one. Climo is all of that though climo doesn't just mean average. Thats ok. Thanks for the discussion! Just so you know, I am holding you to the meltdown you advertised at the end of Feb if none of these little waves of precip work out for us. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, 87storms said: dang. rain already. that's a bit of a dagger. As expected, we snowed for about 10 minutes. Just long enough for this Winter to say "You will never get this, you will never get this, fa la la la la" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: As expected, we snowed for about 10 minutes. Just long enough for this Winter to say "You will never get this, you will never get this, fa la la la la" yea i'm done with these conversational events. they're boring, and based off of our jan 2016 blizzard i think it's safe to say we can do better than this. hopefully we can get an actual snowstorm here this winter. really didn't think we'd go 2 years without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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