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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the majority of run will probably have under 4" of qpf...not every run will underestimate 

Well today every major model run has had some serious QPF... stuff that sort of pushes the boundary of what's possible in a 6-hour period for snow.  I would agree if the models were showing this set-up with like 0.1-0.5" panels but you've got the 3 major global operational models showing like 2" in 12 hour type QPF type possibility. 

Right now its hard to imagine those values are low.  Just seems to be pushing the boundaries of what's possible in a snowing atmosphere.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

this is a great post, I have seen ssts much colder...a few years ago south of BI was 31-32f...the ssts are colder than dec but really are just about average at best

That graphic would lead one to believe they are not average, given that it shows positive anomalies.  More juice.

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I lived in Bristol Ct for that one and had a good 10 inches of heavy wet snow but years ago when I first got the KU book I saw this area had nothing or next to nothing, I drove up to Wolcott CT the day after the storm and there was about 18 inches otg (i am sure it had settled some too)

Elevation played big in that storm, I don't think there was much qpf out that way. It was beginning of Dec too, this is end of Feb beginning of March, could make a huge difference.

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SnowHole413

SnowHole413

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I typed in river road in agawam next to the ct river to find out the difference because i dont know any street in enfield by it....  

 

https://www.whatismyelevation.com

Yeahour elevation sucks for a lot of events here, I see it all the time, I bet we don’t see more than 4 inches from this next storm 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
On 2/23/2018 at 12:16 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Got that 2013 vibe heading into March. We will deal with a highly anomalous pattern, models will suck. Look at the animated DT PVU  pressure and wind and how that west wind abruptly turns east. Buckle up kids and for God's sake don't take anything the GFS puts out at the surface verbatim

gfs_DTpres_us_44.png

Bump for the GFS huggers

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