Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Baroclinic Zone

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Recommended Posts

Ah ahahaha... oh man.. that's gotta be the best model run of the oper. GFS i've seen since 2015...  

there's like 5 chances for a 12" of snow on that sucker. 

pitty of none materialize but ...they are there.   

Not for not, the "active period" has been on the slates for while regardless of model type, so... probably more in line with general numeric potential more so than anything else, but man what an entertainer for the modeling lovers!   This is your run :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the pattern is marginal at best....but I don't see a mild, driving rainer, nor a blizzard. I Think the storm will be pretty unimpressive in general...but I'm not exactly on a role right now haha.

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

the origin of that thing being deep south and kissing the Gulf interface region is a smoking gun for that.   I am also a little less worried ...or perhaps "willing" is really apropos, to debate ptype because we have climate/latitude on our side, ...both of which serve chillier solutions more so than not for any scenario where the vertical cyclonic mechanics uniform traverse SE of ISP. 

This thing ... it almost reminds me of one of the QPF deals in the 1977 earlier in January - though obviously that years antecedent Nino status bares no resemblance. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

Yea, I was just going to say...I didn't look into how moisture rich this system will be despite it being relatively weak/strung out. Makes sense considering it tapping into the gulf....Based on latest GEFS this is going to be quite wet. Probably should up that 3-6" call to 4-8" with locally 6-12"....on the north/west side...

Still think this will look more frontal in nature....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Your a weather curmudgeon!  

:lol:

I'm good. Hopefully Monday works out, but I'd rather a SB win. Still remarkable differences with the GFS and euro ensembles going forward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

Exactly what I was saying to depressed and defeated Scooter last week, pattern screams living on the edge with fast flow multiple chances, stay on your toes weather bros

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

Lets Gooooo!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm good. Hopefully Monday works out, but I'd rather a SB win. Still remarkable differences with the GFS and euro ensembles going forward.

Certainly would make a tainted Monday more enjoyable if it ends up being the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There would not be be any complaining on here with a general 12-24" over that period for the whole New England clan.

GFS is doing its best Oprah impression.....Snow for you and snow for you and snow for you! snow for everyone!!! 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There would not be be any complaining on here with a general 12-24" over that period for the whole New England clan.

It'd at least push us into above-average season territory with one month left.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Everything I see has high PWAT heavy precip event all over it, once we determine where midlevels are someone is in for a blue bomb

That 12z GEFS yo. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm good. Hopefully Monday works out, but I'd rather a SB win. Still remarkable differences with the GFS and euro ensembles going forward.

 Oh' don't worry, I will be a miserable poster if I don't have a new base of snow soon.   We are close to seeing the 10 or so posters that live from Runnaway to Snowgeek to me start snapping.

 I won't include MPM or Codfish  because they have probably already snapped.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm good. Hopefully Monday works out, but I'd rather a SB win. Still remarkable differences with the GFS and euro ensembles going forward.

 

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Certainly would make a tainted Monday more enjoyable if it ends up being the case.

I was trying to decide if I would trade snow for a Pats loss

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For this upcoming pattern....I say bring it on. Big whoop if we taint a bit in one of these threats. There will be another chance right in the pipeline after that. Way better than being cold and trying to coax a shredded clipper to drop snow north of LI sound. Give me active and riding the line any day over a low-risk-of-taint but dryer/less active pattern any day. 

No guts. No glory. 

yeah I know ...  you didn't ask, but, I've always been of the mind set that big ticket items are great but I'll take nickle and dime years preferable to that.   The reason?  big guys take a lot of probability to align everything they need in time and space to get all those needed moving parts cooperating ...which means, they don't have often.   where as, you can throw buck-shot into the flow and have a steady diet of things to keep the storm enthusiasts entertained. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×